A Bayesian network approach to modelling land-use decisions under environmental policy incentives in the Brazilian Amazon

ABSTRACT

Deforestation driven by agricultural expansion is a major threat to the biodiversity of the Amazon Basin. Modelling how deforestation responds to environmental policy implementation has thus become a policy relevant scientific undertaking. However, empirical parameterization of land-use/cover change (LUCC) models is challenging due to the high complexity and uncertainty of land-use decisions. Bayesian Network (BN) modelling provides an effective framework to integrate various data sources including expert knowledge. In this study, we integrate remote sensing products with data from farm-household surveys and a decision game to model LUCC at the BR-163, in Brazil. Our ‘business as usual’ scenario indicates cumulative forest cover loss in the study region of 8,000 km² between 2014 and 2030, whereas ‘intensified law-enforcement’ would reduce cumulative deforestation to 1,600 km² over the same time interval. Our findings underline the importance of conservation law enforcement in modulating the impact of agricultural market incentives on land cover change.     

Ökophysiologische Untersuchungen an Pflanzen der Namib-Wüste

The southern Namib desert has a vegetation cover of mainly succulent plants in which species of the Mesembryanthemaceae are predominant. Climatically this area is characterized by hot and dry days, and cool and humid nights with episodic rainfalls only in winter. In this environment a great number of species perform a crassulaceaen acid metabolism (CAM). The responses of these plants to water stress as well as the regulation of CAM in the natural habitat are described and discussed.     

The transfer of 239/240Pu to cow milk

In summer 1993 we measured the transfer of (239/240)Pu to milk from herbage from a pasture located 5 km from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant. In one treatment cows were allowed to graze freely on the pasture. In a second treatment, cows were fed herbage collected from the pasture in stalls. The milk transfer coefficient; F(m) did not vary significantly between treatments and the mean value of 7.5x10(-6)d l(-1) was higher than previously reported values. Despite many values of F(m) for Pu in the literature we identified few relevant original data sets. Transfer coefficient values for Pu are only appropriate when used in conjunction with a specified time period or an appropriate model which allows for the biological half-life. We recommend for screening purposes an F(m) value of 1x10(-5)d l(-1) for Pu, with an order of magnitude lower value being appropriate for cows which are only exposed for one grazing season.     

Releases of phosphate fertilizer industry in the surrounding environment: Investigation on heavy metals and polonium-210 in soil

Distribution of Cu,Zn,Pb,Cr,Ni,Mn concentrations and the activity of polonium-210 in the surrounding area of a phosphate fertilizer industry located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea has been determined.Nineteen sampling sites were distributed around the industrial zone on a surface area of about 100,000 m2.Atomic absorption spectroscopy and Alpha spectroscopy were used to quantify the heavy elements and polonium-210,respectively.Investigation on a particle scale was conducted by TEM and SEM coupled to EDX and X-ray cartography to determine the nature of heavy elements carriers and their distribution.Heavy elements were mainly concentrated inside the particle size fraction 50 μm.Their levels decreased with distance increasing from the industry.According to the reference soil,enrichment factors were about 10,15,32 and 100 times for Zn,Pb,Cu,and Cr,respectively inside the particle size fraction 50 μm on the closest sites to the industry.The main contaminant sources were transport and storage of row materials and the free release of phosphogypsum waste.Heavy elements were entrapped inside agglomerates of sulfates,phosphates and iron oxihydroxides in a di used shape.Polonium-210 with an enrichment factor of about 56,showed the same behavior of the spatial distribution of the trace elements.     

Review of Russian-language studies on radionuclide behaviour in agricultural animals: part 4. Transfer to poultry

Data on radionuclide transfer to domestic chickens and ducks obtained from research performed in the former Soviet Union were reviewed to provide transfer coefficient values (Ff) to poultry and edible egg contents. The majority of the data are from experiments with ⁹⁰Sr and ¹³⁷Cs, reflecting the importance of these radionuclides after global fallout and major radiation accidents. Data for ³H, ⁵⁴Mn, ⁵⁹Fe, ⁶⁰Co, ²²Na ⁶⁵Zn, ¹³¹I and U are also given. The values derived have been compared with those in the current IAEA Handbook of parameter values for the prediction of radionuclide transfer in temperate environments (TRS 364) and the recent revision which incorporates the values from this paper. The Russian-language data give improved estimates for many radionuclides and the revised handbook is now based on the better quality data given for chronic administration.     

Plant/soil concentration ratios for paired field and garden crops, with emphasis on iodine and the role of soil adhesion

In the effort to predict the risks associated with contaminated soils, considerable reliance is placed on plant/soil concentration ratio (CR) values measured at sites other than the contaminated site. This inevitably results in the need to extrapolate among the many soil and plant types. There are few studies that compare CR among plant types that encompass both field and garden crops. Here, CRs for 40 elements were measured for 25 crops from farm and garden sites chosen so the grain crops were in close proximity to the gardens. Special emphasis was placed on iodine (I) because data for this element are sparse. For many elements, there were consistent trends among CRs for the various crop types, with leafy crops > root crops ≥ fruit crops ≈ seed crops. Exceptions included CR values for As, K, Se and Zn which were highest in the seed crops. The correlation of CRs from one plant type to another was evident only when there was a wide range in soil concentrations. In comparing CRs between crop types, it became apparent that the relationships differed for the rare earth elements (REE), which also had very low CR values. The CRs for root and leafy crops of REE converged to a minimum value. This was attributed to soil adhesion, despite the samples being washed, and the average soil adhesion for root crops was 500 mg soil kg⁻¹ dry plant and for leafy crops was 5 g kg⁻¹. Across elements, the log CR was negatively correlated with log Kd (the soil solid/liquid partition coefficient), as expected. Although, this correlation is expected, measures of correlation coefficients suitable for stochastic risk assessment are not frequently reported. The results suggest that r ≈ −0.7 would be appropriate for risk assessment.