Incompletely resolved phylogenetic trees inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism

The tendency for more closely related species to share similar traits and ecological strategies can be explained by their longer shared evolutionary histories and represents phylogenetic conservatism. How strongly species traits co-vary with phylogeny can significantly impact how we analyze cross-species data and can influence our interpretation of assembly rules in the rapidly expanding field of community phylogenetics. Phylogenetic conservatism is typically quantified by analyzing the distribution of species values on the phylogenetic tree that connects them. Many phylogenetic approaches, however, assume a completely sampled phylogeny: while we have good estimates of deeper phylogenetic relationships for many species-rich groups, such as birds and flowering plants, we often lack information on more recent interspecific relationships (i.e., within a genus). A common solution has been to represent these relationships as polytomies on trees using taxonomy as a guide. Here we show that such trees can dramatically inflate estimates of phylogenetic conservatism quantified using S. P. Blomberg et al.'s K statistic. Using simulations, we show that even randomly generated traits can appear to be phylogenetically conserved on poorly resolved trees. We provide a simple rarefaction-based solution that can reliably retrieve unbiased estimates of K, and we illustrate our method using data on first flowering times from Thoreau's woods (Concord, Massachusetts, USA).     

Trajectories of change in sagebrush steppe vegetation communities in relation to multiple wildfires

Repeated perturbations, both biotic and abiotic, can lead to fundamental changes in the nature of ecosystems, including changes in state. Sagebrush steppe communities provide important habitat for wildlife and grazing for livestock. Fire is an integral part of these systems, but there is concern that increased ignition frequencies and invasive species are fundamentally altering them. Despite these issues, the majority of studies of fire effects in systems dominated by Artemisia tridentata wyomingensis have focused on the effects of single burns. The Arid Lands Ecology Reserve (ALE), in south-central Washington (U.S.A.), was one of the largest contiguous areas of sagebrush steppe habitat in the state until large wildfires burned the majority of it in 2000 and 2007. We analyzed data from permanent vegetation transects established in 1996 and resampled in 2002 and 2009. Our objective was to describe how the fires, and subsequent postfire restoration efforts, affected communities' successional pathways. Plant communities differed in response to repeated fire and restoration; these differences could largely be ascribed to the functional traits of the dominant species. Low-elevation communities, previously dominated by obligate seeders, moved furthest from their initial composition and were dominated by weedy, early-successional species in 2009. Higher-elevation sites with resprouting shrubs, native bunchgrasses, and few invasive species were generally more resilient to the effects of repeated disturbances. Shrub cover has been almost entirely removed from ALE, although there was some recovery where communities were dominated by resprouters. Bromus tectorum dominance was reduced by herbicide application in areas where it was previously abundant, but it increased significantly in untreated areas. Several resprouting species, notably Phlox longifolia and Poa secunda, expanded remarkably following competitive release from shrub canopies and/or abundant B. tectorum. Our results suggest that community dynamics can be understood through a state and transition model with two axes (shrub/grass and native/invasive abundance), although such models also need to account for differences in plant functional traits and disturbance regimes. We use our results to develop a conceptual model that will be validated with further research.     

A comparison of visual and olfactory learning performance in the bumblebee Bombus terrestris

Animals use cues from a range of sensory modalities to discriminate stimuli and as predictors of reward. Whilst there is appreciable variation in the cognitive performance of animals, we know surprisingly little about the extent to which learning varies among individuals across different sensory modalities. Do individuals that are good at learning in one sensory modality also perform well in another (performance is correlated between modalities), or do individuals demonstrate specialisation in learning performance in one modality (trading-off performance between modalities)? We tested these hypotheses by examining the performance of 76 Bombus terrestris workers, from four colonies, in both an odour-and visual learning task. Olfactory learning was assessed using proboscis extension reflex (PER) conditioning and visual (colour) learning was examined using a well-established free-flying paradigm. Our results showed neither a correlation, nor a trade-off, in individual performance for learning tasks using different sensory modalities. However, there was considerable variation among workers within each colony in their performance in both learning tasks. This extent of interindividual variation in learning ability across sensory modalities could be adaptive for colonies dealing with changeable foraging conditions. There was also significant intercolony variation in final task performance level in the olfactory learning task, and both the strength and persistence of blue preference in the colour learning task. This is the first study to demonstrate variation in olfactory learning performance across multiple bumblebee colonies using PER conditioning, suggesting this is an effective paradigm for assessing associative olfactory learning performance both within and among colonies.     

Where do we go from here? Environmental focus groups and planning policy formation

Focus groups have achieved a profile in the analysis of public values unparalleled since the emergence of national opinion polls. While they have been used in a variety of public policy, academic and political settings it is their employment within the field of environmental policy, specifically the land-use planning system, that is the focus of this paper. Using evidence from empirical research it is argued that the research-policy interface of environmental focus groups and planning is currently both undertheorised and underpractised. Undertheorised in that much of the literature on focus groups concentrates on their conduct rather than how they can inform policy. Underpractised because focus group data are failing to have much impact on policy. This paper concentrates on the second of these propositions by showing that while some of the problems with quantitative public environmental values surveys can be overcome by focus groups, the nature and content of the data they produce are not easily assimilated by existing planning structures. In an era when the role of the public, in all its diversity, is being emphasised in policy circles, and collaborative projects between academia and policy communities on environmental issues are becoming increasingly commonplace, early warning signs of tensions between research findings and policy development need to be heeded. A failure to acknowledge these problems may well lead to impoverished environmental policy in planning, a further marginalisation of publics from policy processes and an unjust devaluation of the focus-group method.     

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km² of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations’ resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.     

Philippine protected areas are not meeting the biodiversity coverage and management effectiveness requirements of Aichi Target 11

Aichi Target 11 of the Convention on Biological Diversity urges, inter alia, that nations protect at least 17 % of their land, and that protection is effective and targets areas of importance for biodiversity. Five years before reporting on Aichi targets is due, we assessed the Philippines’ current protected area system for biodiversity coverage, appropriateness of management regimes and capacity to deliver protection. Although protected estate already covers 11 % of the Philippines’ land area, 64 % of its key biodiversity areas (KBAs) remain unprotected. Few protected areas have appropriate management and governance infrastructures, funding streams, management plans and capacity, and a serious mismatch exists between protected area land zonation regimes and conservation needs of key species. For the Philippines to meet the biodiversity coverage and management effectiveness elements of Aichi Target 11, protected area and KBA boundaries should be aligned, management systems reformed to pursue biodiversity-led targets and effective management capacity created.     

Future methane emissions from the heavy-duty natural gas transportation sector for stasis,high, medium,and low scenarios in 2035

Today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet is estimated to represent less than 2% of the total fleet. However, over the next couple of decades, predictions are that the percentage could grow to represent as much as 50%. Although fueling switching to natural gas could provide a climate benefit relative to diesel fuel, the potential for emissions of methane (a potent greenhouse gas) from natural gas–fueled vehicles has been identified as a concern. Since today’s heavy-duty natural gas–fueled fleet penetration is low, today’s total fleet-wide emissions will be also be low regardless of per vehicle emissions. However, predicted growth could result in a significant quantity of methane emissions. To evaluate this potential and identify effective options for minimizing emissions, future growth scenarios of heavy-duty natural gas–fueled vehicles, and compressed natural gas and liquefied natural gas fueling stations that serve them, have been developed for 2035, when the populations could be significant. The scenarios rely on the most recent measurement campaign of the latest manufactured technology, equipment, and vehicles reported in a companion paper as well as projections of technology and practice advances. These “pump-to-wheels”(PTW) projections do not include methane emissions outside of the bounds of the vehicles and fuel stations themselves and should not be confused with a complete wells-to-wheels analysis. Stasis, high, medium, and low scenario PTW emissions projections for 2035 were 1.32%, 0.67%, 0.33%, and 0.15% of the fuel used. The scenarios highlight that a large emissions reductions could be realized with closed crankcase operation, improved best practices, and implementation of vent mitigation technologies. Recognition of the potential pathways for emissions reductions could further enhance the heavy-duty transportation sectors ability to reduce carbon emissions.

Implications: Newly collected pump-to-wheels methane emissions data for current natural gas technologies were combined with future market growth scenarios, estimated technology advancements, and best practices to examine the climate benefit of future fuel switching. The analysis indicates the necessary targets of efficiency, methane emissions, market penetration, and best practices necessary to enable a pathway for natural gas to reduce the carbon intensity of the heavy-duty transportation sector.     

Reproduction and survival of tawny owls in relation to persistent organic pollutants

The potential effects of organochlorines (OCs) and brominated flame retardants on reproduction and survival were studied in tawny owls (Strix aluco) in Central Norway over a period of 19 years (1986-2004). Concentrations of 14 OCs and five polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were measured in eggs (n=104), and Principal Component Analysis was used to produce composite measurements of pollutants; i.e. PC1 and PC2, which accounted for 85% of the variation in contaminant concentrations. There was no evidence for adverse associations between pollutants (PC scores) and life-history traits such as clutch size, probability of producing fledglings and survival, when controlling for potentially confounding variables. Moreover, there was no evidence for interactions between pollutants and vole abundance suggesting no synergistic effects of food stress and pollutants on these life-history traits. There was, however, some evidence for a non-linear negative association between p,p'-DDE (1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl) ethylene) and eggshell thickness. This suggests that the concentrations of pollutants in this ecosystem were too low to affect reproduction and survival in an owl predominantly consuming prey at low trophic levels, but may be sufficient to cause eggshell thinning at the highest concentrations.