Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany

Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.     

Climate impact on agroeconomy in semiarid region of Armenia

With 21 % of gross domestic product (GDP) in agricultural sector and having consistently experienced natural disasters (e.g., drought, flood), Armenia is very vulnerable to climate and its change. Given the fact that 63 % of the entire land is planted with grains, this study primarily focuses on the market for wheat flour and bread. Economic welfare loss due to drought episodes is calculated using the economic data integrated with climate measures. Economic data are utilized for the period 1995–2011 (obtained from Statistical Office of Armenia) and specifically include the quantity produced and consumed of wheat flour and bread combined with mean prices, population income, GDP in the agricultural sector, GDP in the planting sector, and governmental expenditure on subsidies. Climate data include temperature and precipitation during the period 1966–2011 (obtained from National Hydrometeorological Service of Armenia). The analysis includes three main components. The first utilizes a market framework that analyzes the impact of climate on equilibrium prices and quantities as well as trade and tax effects. The second employs a logarithmic utility function to estimate the effective insurance policy for the agricultural sector using risk management strategies. Lastly, a macroeconomic model has been developed to assess the efficient sum of governmental expenditure on subsidies and irrigation during the drought episodes and during the mean climatic conditions. All three parts of the study are developed for the first time.     

Spatial assessment of climate change effects on crop suitability for major plantation crops in Sri Lanka

Climate change is the main global challenge of this century; it is therefore imperative to identify its effects on agriculture in developing countries. This research makes spatial assessment of climate change effect on major plantation crops in Sri Lanka, with emphasis on crop suitability of tea, rubber, and coconut. Geo-referenced maps of spatial and temporal changes in crop suitability and production potentials are generated and compared. Data pertaining to six agro-ecological zones under the study area are analyzed for a period of 1980–2007. Crop suitability maps are generated amalgamating yield maps and climatic factors maps using AHP in multi-criteria analysis under two time frames of 1980–1992 and 1993–2007. Percent change in crop suitability and crop yield classes is calculated based on five crop suitability and five crop yield classes during two time frames. Dynamics of climatic parameters and crop yield are recognized using geo-referenced maps. The suitability maps of the two time frames are compared to identify the changes with each crop in conjunction with changes in the prevailing climate and yield. Geographic shift of suitability, yield, and climate classes are examined. Net gain or loss in crop production is quantified. Long-term annual rainfall significantly decreased in mid-country wet zone, whereas the mean temperature of the study area increased by 1.4°C. Results clearly showed that the climate and yield can be meaningfully related to the crop suitability and management.     

Grain, meat and vegetables to feed Paris: where did and do they come from? Localising Paris food supply areas from the eighteenth to the twenty-first century

The food supply to a large metropolis such as Paris involves huge fluxes of goods, which considerably impact the surrounding rural territories. Here, we present an attempt to localise Paris food supply areas, over a period of two centuries (1786, 1886, 2006), based on the analysis of data from transportation and production statistics for cereals, animal products, and fruits and vegetables, all three categories being expressed in terms of their nitrogen (i.e. protein) content. The results show contrasting trends for the three types of agricultural products. As for cereals, the Paris supply area remained for the most part restricted to the central area of the Paris basin, a region which gradually became specialised in intensive cereal production. Conversely, as animal farming had been progressively excluded from this area, regions located west and north of Paris (Brittany, Normandy, Nord-Pas-de-Calais) gradually dominated the supply of animal products to the metropolis. In addition, imported feed from South America today contributes as much as one-third of the total ration of feed in the livestock raised in these regions. For fruits and vegetables, about one-half of the Paris supply currently comes from long-distance imports, the other half coming from areas less than 200 km from Paris. As a whole, the Paris food supply area, although it has obviously enlarged in recent periods, is still anchored to an unexpected extent (about 50%) in its traditional nearby hinterland roughly coinciding with the Seine watershed, and in the regions specialised in animal farming located west and north. On the other hand, the agricultural system of the main food supply areas has considerably opened to global markets.     

Relationship between carbon emissions and economic development: case study of six countries

There is much discussion within the sustainable development community regarding climate stabilization and particularly, finding environmentally equitable ways to address emission reductions. Knowing the current level of emission is only one variable in this complex picture. While the rate of emissions is clearly a problem, the overall increase in GHG concentration in the atmosphere is ultimately the main driver of anthropogenic warming. Therefore, it is also important to understand the cumulative emissions, those which have taken us to the current condition. This research presents a case study of six countries to compare the emissions per capita and cumulative emissions during the past 200 years. It is known that carbon emissions are closely related to economic activities, but here we show that some countries have reached per capita emissions plateaus at different levels while others are still rising. Specifically, one approach toward socioeconomic development, in terms of energy–economy, reaches a plateau at 10 Mt carbon per person, which the United Kingdom and South Korea have attained. The US occupies another emission regime at 20 Mt carbon per person. Developing economies such as India and China are considerably below these levels, and unless they follow other integrated economic/environmental solutions, they will continue to increase their per capita emissions during development.     

A survey-based evaluation of community-based co-management of forest resources: a case study of Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve in China

Community-based co-management (CBCM) mechanisms for forest management have matured through the development of new economic analysis and common property theory. However, while many local CBCM mechanisms have been initiated in Chinese Natural Reserves, there are few objective, data-based evaluations of whether these mechanisms improve forest conservation and local livelihoods. This research uses Baishuijiang National Natural Reserve (BNNR) as a study case to evaluate China’s current CBCM mechanisms. The evaluation is based mainly on three criteria: efficiency, equality and sustainability of project operation. Survey data indicate that local CBCM mechanisms provide a wide-participation platform for local villagers, associated administration managers, research institutions and NGOs to join in forest resource protection work while improving local livelihood. CBCM projects have also facilitated a reduction in forest resource dependency, the improvement of household income and encouragement of local people to participate in forest resource protection. Our analysis suggests that most CBCM organizations have made progress in efficiency, equity and sustainability. However, further study should focus on how to deal with the lingering problems of inequity in responsibility and rights among CBCM committee members, poor distribution of benefits, insufficient program-design and management expertise, faulty information dissemination, and insufficient capital investment.     

Phenotypic variation in Ural and Siberian populations of the heath <Emphasis Type="Italic">Coenonympha amaryllis</Emphasis> (Stoll, 1782)

Phenotypic variation in the widespread Siberian and Mongolian butterfly species Coenonympha amaryllis (Stoll, 1782), an indicator of undisturbed steppe communities, is analyzed. It is shown that its size variation is influenced by a complex of climatic factors, the most important of them being the average starting date of the frost-free period and average annual temperature in the region. Longitude-dependent variation in size is described by a “sawtooth curve” characteristic of species with changing voltinism.     

Impact of point polluters on terrestrial ecosystems: Methodology of research,experimental design,and typical errors

The current state of the ecology of the impact regions is outlined. It is argued that the complex of ecosystems situated around a point polluter (an impact region) is an appropriate model for solving several fundamental and applied ecological problems related to the exploration of strong external impacts on biota. Typical methodological errors resulting from insufficient attention to specific features of passive experiments are analysed, and ways to avoid them are proposed. The principles of spatial arrangements of study sites within the impact region and of the selection of experimental and evaluation units are discussed.