Population Persistence in Florida Torreya: Comparing Modeled Projections of a Declining Coniferous Tree

Abstract: The Florida torreya (   Torreya taxifolia ) is a coniferous tree endemic to a 35-km stretch of bluffs and ravines along the east side of the Apalachicola River in northern Florida and southern Georgia. This formerly locally abundant tree has declined as a result of disease during the 1950s and is on the U.S. endangered species list. With no seed production in the wild, this species is headed toward extinction. We conducted a survey on roughly 200 trees from 1988 to 1996 and used these data to estimate the likelihood of population persistence during the next several decades. We compared a stage-class transition matrix model ( RAMAS) and an individual-based stochastic model ( TORSIM) of growth and mortality to project future populations. Given the current lack of seed production in the wild, all models predict extinction. The question of concern is the imminence of this predicted extinction. Differing predicted times to extinction would suggest different immediate management recommendations. Both models predicted an over 90% likelihood of persistence during the next 50 years. Predictions differed in that the transition matrix model was less optimistic than the individual-based model regarding persistence. Model sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust to significant decreases in growth and sprouting probabilities. Submodels identified different persistence likelihoods in different populations. Nonetheless, unless management of the population can facilitate maturation and seed production, extinction of this species in the wild is inevitable.     

Evolution of extreme-mating behaviour: patterns of extrapair paternity in a species with forced extrapair copulation

Sexual conflict can result in the evolution of extreme mating strategies, including forced copulation. Forced extrapair copulation (FEPC) is generally rare among birds, but is common in re-introduced populations of the hihi (Notiomystis cincta), a socially monogamous, New Zealand endemic, endangered passerine. The aim of this study was to understand the patterns of extrapair paternity in a population where the majority of EPC is forced and to examine the factors, in particular female-specific, influencing the proportion of offspring fathered by extrapair males (EPP—extrapair paternity) and the number of males siring extrapair offspring within a brood (EPM) in this species. Using 8 years of comprehensive paternity, life-history and demographic information for 485 breeding attempts, we show that the frequency of EPP is dependent on (1) social male and female age, (2) the month the female fledged, (3) breeding density and (4) whether it was their first or second reproductive event of the season. In addition, we show that both EPP and EPM are negatively associated with breeding synchrony and clutch size is the most important predictor of EPM. Understanding the drivers of EPP and EPM in species with FECP is important because these are strong determinants of variance in reproductive success and the maintenance of extreme mating behaviour.     

Polyphenols and their influence on gut function and health in ruminants: a review

Polyphenols in plants can protect proteins from degradation and improve the efficiency of conversion of plant protein to animal protein (meat and milk), but can this be achieved in a way that is environmentally sustainable, profitable to the livestock farmer and is consistent with aspirations for improved livestock nutrition, health, welfare and product quality? Given that grazed and conserved forage is the bedrock of sustainable ruminant production, this paper attempts to consider what challenges are ahead in terms of enhancing productive efficiency, reducing the polluting footprint of livestock agriculture and alleviating the endemic parasitism that occurs with grazing animals.     

Allometric exponents do not support a universal metabolic allometry

The debate about the value of the allometric scaling exponent (b) relating metabolic rate to body mass (metabolic rate = a x mass(b)) is ongoing, with published evidence both for and against a 3/4-power scaling law continuing to accumulate. However, this debate often revolves around a dichotomous distinction between the 3/4-power exponent predicted by recent models of nutrient distribution networks and a 2/3 exponent predicted by Euclidean surface-area-to-volume considerations. Such an approach does not allow for the possibility that there is no single "true" exponent. In the present study, we conduct a meta-analysis of 127 interspecific allometric exponents to determine whether there is a universal metabolic allometry or if there are systematic differences between taxa or between metabolic states. This analysis shows that the effect size of mass on metabolic rate is significantly heterogeneous and that, on average, the effect of mass on metabolic rate is stronger for endotherms than for ectotherms. Significant differences between scaling exponents were also identified between ectotherms and endotherms, as well as between metabolic states (e.g., rest, field, and exercise), a result that applies to b values estimated by ordinary least squares, reduced major axis, and phylogenetically correct regression models. The lack of support for a single exponent model suggests that there is no universal metabolic allometry and represents a significant challenge to any model that predicts only a single value of b.     

Chemical trends in background air quality and the ionic composition of precipitation for the period 1980-2004 from samples collected at Valentia Observatory, Co. Kerry, Ireland

A major Irish study, based upon more than 8000 samples collected over the measurement period of 22 years, for sulfur dioxide (SO2-S), sulfate (SO4-S) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2-N) concentrations (microg m(-3)) within air, and the ionic composition of precipitation samples based on sodium (Na+), potassium (K+), magnesium (Mg2+), calcium (Ca2+), chloride (Cl-), sulfate (SO4-S), non-sea salt sulfate (nssSO4-S), ammonium (NH4-N), and nitrate (NO3-N) weighted mean concentrations (mg l(-1)), has been completed. For the air samples, the sulfur dioxide and sulfate concentrations decreased over the sampling period (1980-2004) by 75% and 45%, respectively, whereas no significant trend was observed for nitrogen dioxide. The highest concentrations for sulfur dioxide, sulfate and nitrogen dioxide were associated with wind originating from the easterly and northeasterly directions i.e. those influenced by Irish and European sources. The lowest concentrations were associated with the westerly directions i.e. for air masses originating in the North Atlantic region. This was further verified with the use of backward (back) trajectory analysis, which allowed tracing the movement of air parcels using the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) ERA-40 re-analysis data. High non-sea salt sulfate levels were being associated with air masses originating from Europe (easterlies) with lower levels from the Atlantic (westerlies). With the precipitation data, analysis of the non-sea salt sulfate concentrations showed a decrease by 47% since the measurements commenced.     

Tracking acid mine-drainage in Southeast Arizona using GIS and sediment delivery models

This study investigates the application of models traditionally used to estimate erosion and sediment deposition to assess the potential risk of water quality impairment resulting from metal-bearing materials related to mining and mineralization. An integrated watershed analysis using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based tools was undertaken to examine erosion and sediment transport characteristics within the watersheds. Estimates of stream deposits of sediment from mine tailings were related to the chemistry of surface water to assess the effectiveness of the methodology to assess the risk of acid mine-drainage being dispersed downstream of abandoned tailings and waste rock piles. A watershed analysis was preformed in the Patagonia Mountains in southeastern Arizona which has seen substantial mining and where recent water quality samples have reported acidic surface waters. This research demonstrates an improvement of the ability to predict streams that are likely to have severely degraded water quality as a result of past mining activities.     

Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America – Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds1

Pereira Filho, Augusto J., Richard E. Carbone, John E. Janowiak, Phillip Arkin, Robert Joyce, Ricardo Hallak, and Camila G.M. Ramos, 2010. Satellite Rainfall Estimates Over South America – Possible Applicability to the Water Management of Large Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(2):344-360. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00406.x Abstract: This work analyzes high-resolution precipitation data from satellite-derived rainfall estimates over South America, especially over the Amazon Basin. The goal is to examine whether satellite-derived precipitation estimates can be used in hydrology and in the management of larger watersheds of South America. High spatial-temporal resolution precipitation estimates obtained with the CMORPH method serve this purpose while providing an additional hydrometeorological perspective on the convective regime over South America and its predictability. CMORPH rainfall estimates at 8-km spatial resolution for 2003 and 2004 were compared with available rain gauge measurements at daily, monthly, and yearly accumulation time scales. The results show the correlation between satellite-derived and gauge-measured precipitation increases with accumulation period from daily to monthly, especially during the rainy season. Time-longitude diagrams of CMORPH hourly rainfall show the genesis, strength, longevity, and phase speed of convective systems. Hourly rainfall analyses indicate that convection over the Amazon region is often more organized than previously thought, thus inferring that basin scale predictions of rainfall for hydrological and water management purposes have the potential to become more skillful. Flow estimates based on CMORPH and the rain gauge network are compared to long-term observed average flow. The results suggest this satellite-based rainfall estimation technique has considerable utility. Other statistics for monthly accumulations also suggest CMORPH can be an important source of rainfall information at smaller spatial scales where in situ observations are lacking.