Getting to the First Handshake: Enhancing Security by Initiating Cooperation in Transboundary River Basins

How does transboundary water cooperation begin at the initial stages, and how can third parties help to foster said cooperation? Many nations with transboundary waters do not cooperate or have ceased cooperation. Yet cooperation often prevails, resulting in 688 water‐related treaties signed from 1820 to 2007. We address the following: by which practices can development partners best design and implement cooperative projects at the state level to enhance basin water security in the earliest stages? This article identifies strategies for initiating cooperation and lessons drawn from reviewing select cases. We compiled from the Oregon State University Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database all transboundary water resources projects over the last decade with multinational participation. We selected 10 case studies that enhance water security that fit the following filtering criteria: (1) Funding exclusively/primarily from outside sources, (2) Including nonofficial stakeholders in project design/implementation, (3) Absence of formal relations around water resources between or among the riparian nations before the project was discussed, (4) Project design possibly enhancing hydropolitical relations. Findings suggest that to enhance water security, project designs should respect participating riparians' autonomies, create basin‐wide networks of scientists, allow for each partner to garner responsibility for project activities, and consult a diverse group of stakeholders.     

Double catastrophe: intermittent stratospheric geoengineering induced by societal collapse

Perceived failure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has prompted interest in avoiding the harms of climate change via geoengineering, that is, the intentional manipulation of Earth system processes. Perhaps the most promising geoengineering technique is stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), which reflects incoming solar radiation, thereby lowering surface temperatures. This paper analyzes a scenario in which SAI brings great harm on its own. The scenario is based on the issue of SAI intermittency, in which aerosol injection is halted, sending temperatures rapidly back toward where they would have been without SAI. The rapid temperature increase could be quite damaging, which in turn creates a strong incentive to avoid intermittency. In the scenario, a catastrophic societal collapse eliminates society’s ability to continue SAI, despite the incentive. The collapse could be caused by a pandemic, nuclear war, or other global catastrophe. The ensuing intermittency hits a population that is already vulnerable from the initial collapse, making for a double catastrophe. While the outcomes of the double catastrophe are difficult to predict, plausible worst-case scenarios include human extinction. The decision to implement SAI is found to depend on whether global catastrophe is more likely from double catastrophe or from climate change alone. The SAI double catastrophe scenario also strengthens arguments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions and against SAI, as well as for building communities that could be self-sufficient during global catastrophes. Finally, the paper demonstrates the value of integrative, systems-based global catastrophic risk analysis.     

Substitution of peat,fertiliser and manure by compost in hobby gardening: User surveys and case studies

Four user surveys were performed at recycle centres (RCs) in the Municipalities of Aarhus and Copenhagen, Denmark, to get general information on compost use and to examine the substitution of peat, fertiliser and manure by compost in hobby gardening. The average driving distance between the users’ households and the RCs was found to be 4.3 km and the average amount of compost picked up was estimated at 800 kg per compost user per year. The application layer of the compost varied (between 1 and 50 cm) depending on the type of use. The estimated substitution (given as a fraction of the compost users that substitute peat, fertiliser and manure with compost) was 22% for peat, 12% for fertiliser and 7% for manure (41% in total) from the survey in Aarhus (n = 74). The estimate from the survey in Copenhagen (n = 1832) was 19% for peat, 24% for fertiliser and 15% for manure (58% in total). This is the first time, to the authors’ knowledge, that the substitution of peat, fertiliser and manure with compost has been assessed for application in hobby gardening. Six case studies were performed as home visits in addition to the Aarhus surveys. From the user surveys and the case studies it was obvious that the total substitution of peat, fertiliser and manure was not 100%, as is often assumed when assigning environmental credits to compost. It was more likely around 50% and thus there is great potential for improvement. It was indicated that compost was used for a lot of purposes in hobby gardening. Apart from substitution of peat, fertiliser and manure, compost was used to improve soil quality and as a filling material (as a substitute for soil). Benefits from these types of application are, however, difficult to assess and thereby quantify.     

An adaptive reduction algorithm for efficient chemical calculations in global atmospheric chemistry models

We present a computationally efficient adaptive method for calculating the time evolution of the concentrations of chemical species in global 3-D models of atmospheric chemistry. Our strategy consists of partitioning the computational domain into fast and slow regions for each chemical species at every time step. In each grid box, we group the fast species and solve for their concentration in a coupled fashion. Concentrations of the slow species are calculated using a simple semi-implicit formula. Separation of species between fast and slow is done on the fly based on their local production and loss rates. This allows for example to exclude short-lived volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and their oxidation products from chemical calculations in the remote troposphere where their concentrations are negligible, letting the simulation determine the exclusion domain and allowing species to drop out individually from the coupled chemical calculation as their production/loss rates decline. We applied our method to a 1-year simulation of global tropospheric ozone-NO_x-VOC-aerosol chemistry using the GEOS-Chem model. Results show a 50% improvement in computational performance for the chemical solver, with no significant added error.