Valuing regional geoscientific data acquisition programmes: addressing issues of quantification,uncertainty and risk

Geological surveys worldwide are involved with research in support of sustainable mineral resource development.The socio-economic benefits to be derived from these activities, however, continue to raise organisational and government sector questions. Fundamental questions include whether or not the resources committed are appropriate and in economic balance with the total benefits to be derived. Another question concerns the degree to which such services should be funded by the community at large. These questions in turn raise important issues regarding the role and cost of geological surveys, the impact of their services, and how they should maximise community benefit from their activities and expertise. To assess the value of geoscientific information,standard valuation processes need to be modified. This paper reports on a methodology designed to quantify the 'worth' of programmes upgrading regional geoscientific infrastructure. An interdisciplinary approach is used to measure the impact of geoscientific information using quantitative resource assessment, computer-based mineral potential modelling, statistical analysis and risk quantification to model decision-processes and assess the impact of additional data. These modelling stages are used to address problems of complexity,uncertainty and credibility in the valuation of geoscientific data. A case study demonstrates the application of the methodology to generate a dollar value for current regional data upgrade programmes in the Geological Survey of Queensland. The results obtained are used for strategic planning of future data acquisition programmes aimed at supporting mineral resource management and stimulating effective exploration activity.     

Pilot field study: Carbon monoxide exposure monitoring in the general population

A pilot field study was conducted with nine members of the general public to measure carbon monoxide exposure using personal monitors. The principal study objectives were to design and evaluate the research protocol and the instrumentation performance for application to the conduct of a large-scale personal monitoring program. Integrated carbon monoxide exposure was monitored and recorded according to type of activity such as “commuting” or “at work” for approximately 45 days by each subject. All subjects except one were able to handle both the equipment and data recording requirements with no significant problems. Actual data recording responsibilities consumed less than 10 min daily. The data consisted of 355 person-days each over 6-h duration, and weekdays only, from which 8-h average personal exposure levels could be computed. The 9 ppm (μL/L) ambient air quality standard was exceeded on 22 person-days. Elevated carbon monoxide concentrations during the commuting activity were frequently associated with the exceedences.     

Impingement of threadfin shad: Effects of temperature and hydrography

A model is presented that allows testing of hypotheses concerning the effects of temperature and change in temperature on impingement. The model is evaluated using data from the Tennessee Valley Authority's Kingston Steam Plant, Watts Bar Reservoir, Tennessee, USA for two fish species impinged in large numbers in the United States: threadfin and gizzard shad,Dorosoma petenense andD. cepedianum. Hydrographic characteristics near the intake screens were mapped to help explain the possible role of hydrography in distributing fish across the screens. Understanding the role of temperature and hydrography in impingement of fish provides a basis for new intake designs that may reduce impingement and helps in the development of methods to reduce impingement at existing facilities. The temperature modeling approach and conclusions about hydrographic effects might be applied to other systems in which cold-stressed schooling fish are impinged.Research sponsored by the Office of Health and Environmental Research, US Department of Energy, under contract W-7405-eng-26 with Union Carbide Corporation.Publication No. 1872, Environmental Sciences Division, ORNL.     

Risk of Myxobolus cerebralis infection to rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA.

Myxobolus cerebralis, the parasite that causes salmonid whirling disease, has had detrimental effects on several salmonid populations in the Intermountain West, including the rainbow trout in the Madison River, Montana, USA. The goal of this study was to examine relationships among characteristics of the environment, Tubifex tubifex (the alternate host) populations, and rainbow trout whirling disease risk in the Madison River. Environmental characteristics were measured in side channels of the Madison River, and differences were described with a principal components analysis. The density of T. tubifex, the prevalence of infection in T. tubifex, and the density of infected T. tubifex were determined for the side channels using benthic core samples and examination of live tubificids for infection. The site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk in the side channels was determined using in situ exposures of sentinel rainbow trout. Regression analyses were used to determine correlations among these characteristics. Side channels differed in site-specific contribution to rainbow trout whirling disease risk, which was positively correlated to the density of infected T. tubifex. Side channels with fine sediments and lower water temperatures made greater site-specific contribution to whirling disease risk and had higher densities of infected T. tubifex than side channels with coarser sediments and higher temperatures. The ability to characterize areas of high whirling disease risk is essential for improving our understanding of the dynamics of M. cerebralis such that appropriate management strategies can be implemented. In addition, this study provides a model of how the disease ecology of complex aquatic parasites can be examined when the influential processes operate on different spatial scales.     

Sustainability and the Scientist's Burden

Natural scientists are being encouraged by environmental and developmental agencies to define and operationalize the concept of sustainability in a "scientific" manner. Such an approach is fraught with dangers because values, opinions, and social influences are an inextricable part of science, especially applied science. Natural scientists' attempts to define sustainability, particularly to decide what should be sustained, cannot therefore be value-neutral. They simply end up shifting value judgments to different levels by choosing either a single obvious objective, an arbitrary range of objectives, or an arbitrary method of aggregating different preferences. This lack of self-reflectiveness on the part of scientists has important consequences for the direction of research and its political implications. Natural scientists should heed lessons from earlier cases of scientists' involvement in policy and redefine the terms of reference before shouldering their social burden. The dilemma of pursuing objective science in a value-loaded and socially charged discourse can be resolved by properly understanding the role of analysis and by pursuing a socially grounded pluralistic approach to problem definition and research methodology.     

Sample size for monitoring of toxic chemical sites

The problem of determining sample size for environmental monitoring and assessment is considered. Hypothesis testing is discussed in general terms and in terms of monitoring toxic chemical sites. Competing risks of misclassification of sites are examined within the framework of statistics. Alpha and beta, the probability of making Type I and Type II errors, respectively, are illustrated in the context of environmental monitoring.Sample size formulas and tables are provided for comparing a mean to a standard mean, comparing two means, comparing a proportion to a standard proportion, and comparing two proportions. The formulas and tables consider the size of differences to be detected as well as the probability of Type I and Type II errors.Although the research described in this article has been funded wholly or in part by the United States Environmental Protection Agency through Cooperative Agreement No. CR 810550 to the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, it has not been subjected to the Agency review and therefore does not necessarily reflect the views of the Agency and no official endorsement should be inferred.