POSEIDON/RODOS models for radiological assessment of marine environment after accidental releases: application to coastal areas of the Baltic, Black and North Seas

In the framework of the developments of the European system RODOS (Real-time On-line DecisiOn support System) for emergency response to nuclear accident, the computer code POSEIDON, that was developed to assess the radiological consequences of radioactive releases into marine environment, was adapted to cope with emergency conditions, in situations of radioactive discharges into the oceans from direct deposition from the atmosphere, sunken ships and containers, from discharges of rivers and estuaries and from coastal run-off. Based on the box model developed within the 'Marina' project, POSEIDON can calculate the dose effects from radionuclide releases in the coastal waters of Europe integrated over long time periods. A dynamic food chain model was implemented to deal with the short-term dynamical uptake of radioactivity by specific marine plants and organisms. POSEIDON has been installed on a UNIX platform to be fully compatible with RODOS input/output databases and on a Windows platform with an interface based on web technology. The 3D hydrodynamic model THREETOX is a part of the POSEIDON/RODOS system. It has been applied to coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, the Black Sea, and the North Sea. to derive the parameters for a flexible system of well-defined model compartments to be adapted to emergency conditions. The activity concentrations in water and in the marine food web were calculated by means of POSEIDON for radioactive fallout resulting from bomb testing, from the Chernobyl accident, and from routine discharges from nuclear facilities. POSEIDON's model results were compared with measurement data, and with calculation results from THREETOX. The model results agreed with the measurement data sufficiently.     

Lake fish as the main contributor of internal dose to lakeshore residents in the Chernobyl contaminated area

Two field expeditions in 1996 studied 137Cs intake patterns and its content in the bodies of adult residents from the village Kozhany in the Bryansk region, Russia, located on the shore of a drainless peat lake in an area subjected to significant radioactive contamination after the 1986 Chernobyl accident. The 137Cs contents in lake water and fish were two orders of magnitude greater than in local rivers and flow-through lakes, 10 years after Chernobyl radioactive contamination, and remain stable. The 137Cs content in lake fish and a mixture of forest mushrooms was between approximately 10-20 kBq/kg, which exceeded the temporary Russian permissible levels for these products by a factor of 20-40. Consumption of lake fish gave the main contribution to internal doses (40-50%) for Kozhany village inhabitants Simple countermeasures, such as Prussian blue doses for dairy cows and pre-boiling mushrooms and fish before cooking, halved the 137Cs internal dose to inhabitants, even 10 years after the radioactive fallout.     

Environmental changes in Sepetiba Bay,SE Brazil

Sepetiba Bay is an example of an aquatic environment that has been severely impacted by human occupation and industrial activities in its basin. Some 400 industries including metallurgical, petrochemical and pyrometallurgical smelters, which emitted pollutants to air, soil and water, were established in Sepetiba Basin during the past 30 years. Apart from these point sources, changes in land use have also resulted in a large remobilization of pollutant deposition on Sepetiba Bay Basin. Studies have pointed out significant changes in sedimentation rates, concentrations of inorganic pollutants (Zn, Cd, Pb and Hg) and more recently, eutrophication, pointing to this area as an example of an impacted coastal zone. Notwithstanding local sources, Sepetiba Bay also suffers environmental impacts caused by diversion of river waters from adjacent basins, with some 30% of the total Hg flux to Sepetiba Bay and a 10-fold increase in water and sediment fluxes resulting from this. Decreasing environmental quality compromises both the large biodiversity and the potential economic uses of Sepetiba Bay, including fisheries and tourism. Monitoring of heavy metal levels in organisms (algae, mollusks, crustaceans and oysters) often shows concentrations well above the limits allowed following Brazilian legislation for food quality. Historical evolution of these concentrations suggests a worsening of the situation. Failure to monitor the effect of land-based activities, including those from other basins artificially associated with Sepetiba Bay has resulted in poor scenario construction and proper management planning.     

Radon time variations and deterministic chaos

Radon concentrations were continuously measured outdoors, in the living room and in the basement at 10 min intervals for a month. Radon time series were analyzed by comparing algorithms to extract phase space dynamical information. The application of fractal methods enabled exploration of the chaotic nature of radon in atmosphere. The computed fractal dimensions, such as the Hurst exponent (H) from the rescaled range analysis, Lyapunov exponent (lambda) and attractor dimension, provided estimates of the degree of chaotic behavior. The obtained low values of the Hurst exponent (0 < H < 0.5) indicated anti-persistent behavior (non-random changes) of the time series, but the positive values of lambda pointed out the grate sensitivity on initial conditions and the deterministic chaos that appeared due to radon time variations. The calculated fractal dimensions of attractors indicated more influencing (meteorological) parameters on radon in the atmosphere.     

ENHANCING EVACUATION WARNING COMPLIANCE: SUGGESTIONS FOREMERGENCY PLANNING*

This review of incentives to evacuate is meaningful largely in the context of planning for and managing the consequences of the impact of riverine floods. Of course, incentives do not constitute an emergency plan. At best, they should be seen as suggestions for structuring some elements of a plan. Furthermore, the enumeration of incentives presented here is meant to be suggestive rather than exhaustive. A primary objective of this paper has been to underscore the importance of advance planning in coping with hazards and to argue that, even though limited, existing research can be productively used in the planning process. The incentives described here are based upon or drawn from empirical research on people's performance under flood disaster conditions. This reflects the view that it is important to build emergency planning around people's known reaction patterns. Too often emergency plans which are administratively devised turn out to be based upon misconceptions of how people react (cf. Drabek and Stephenson, 1971, p. 202; Dynes et al., 1972, p. 31) and, therefore, potentially create more difficulties than they solve. One must be cautioned, however, that although our data indicate that people say they would support the idea of various evacuation incentives examined here, these are attitudinal data and not performance data. Thus, the real test of evacuation incentives lies in their implementation and in evaluation data on pilot programs which, unfortunately, do not presently exist. The outlook for the feasibility of developing and utilizing evacuation incentives appears to be positive, though, judging from responses to our interviews. In the final analysis, it would appear to be wise to develop emergency plans which guide and channel citizen actions into complementary and productive protection behavior patterns. The present discussion of incentives to evacuate is intended to encourage data-based emergency planning.     

Response of a coral-associated crustacean community to eutrophication

Seventy-five samples of the crustacean fauna associated with the coral Madracis mirabilis (Duchassaing and Michelotti) were obtained at five sites along the west coast of Barbados in 1985. Samples were analyzed to determine whether any community response to eutrophication was evident. Ordination (multidimensional scaling) and classification (group average clustering) based on Bray-Curtis dissimilarity measures separated the fauna of highly eutrophied sites from those that were less eutrophied. Dominance plots based on relative abundance and log-normal plotting methods were ineffective in distinguishing the fauna of eutrophied sites. The crustacean fauna responded to eutrophication mainly by reduction of density of animals. No differences in species richness, number of site endemic species or rare species were observed between highly eutrophied and less eutrophied sites. Nine indicator species of eutrophy were identified on the basis of strong density differences between sites.