Collective risk management: insights and opportunities for DoD decision-makers

Individuals make decisions every day in group contexts which vary in size, structure, and purpose. The US Department of Defense (DoD) is a large organization composed of many groups, and like many organizations, it has a vested interest in improving the performance of its affiliated groups, especially as it concerns risk-informed decision-making. This article discusses current foibles and considerations for decision-making in DoD groups as identified through a workshop with experts in risk-informed decision-making, cognitive science, and military operations. Experts noted that terms associated with risk-informed decision-making were often misconstrued, that formal decision-making frameworks are underutilized, and that many considerations should be taken into account when attempting to improve decision-making performance.     

Vegetation changes associated with barrier-dune construction on the outer banks of North Carolina

Manmade dunes are used to stabilize the barrier islands of the mid-Atlantic coast of the United States so that they are more amenable to development. Although this strategy has stabilized extensive sections of the barrier-island substrate, it has also caused significant ecological changes. The rate and pattern of the resulting vegetation changes along the Outer Banks of North Carolina were determined using sequential aerial photography. Successional trends have been altered in favor of more stable woody communities.     

Treatment of risk in environmental impact assessment

Risk assessment and environmental impact assessment have developed as separate traditions. While environmental impact assessment is a broad field that includes all activities that attempt to analyze and evaluate the effects of human and related actions on the environment, risk assessment has been concerned with the relatively well-defined regulatory problems and employs formal quantitative analysis of the probability of specific undesired events, such as cancer. Risk analytic approaches, particularly the explicit treatment of uncertainty, can significantly contribute to environmental assessments. This article discusses the type and sources of uncertainty in environmental assessments, techniques for their quantification, and ways to use uncertainty estimates to calculate probabilities of effects or probabilities of exceeding environmental standards and to determine the need for mitigation or additional research.This article was presented at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, Task Force Meeting on Risk and Policy Analysis under Conditions of Uncertainty, Laxenburg, Austria, November 1985.     

Legal considerations in challenging external threats to Glacier National Park,Montana, USA

External threats to the environmental integrity of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA, fit into three categories: adverse land use practices adjacent to the Park, air pollution, and water pollution. This article identifies and evaluates the laws that Glacier National Park officials might rely upon to protect the Park against these external threats. The article also assesses the available scientific information relating to external threats, and it identifies additional information needed to establish a legal basis for challenging the threats.     

Use of toxicity identification evaluation techniques to identify dredged material disposal options: A proposed approach

It is common to use the results of various solid-phase and aqueous-fraction toxicity tests as part of the decision-making process for selecting disposal options for dredged sediments. The mere presence of toxicity, however, does not provide a logical basis for selecting economical, environmentally protective disposal techniques. To achieve this, it is necessary to be able to identify specific compounds responsible for sediment toxicity. Toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) procedures, originally developed for complex effluents, represent a useful approach for identifying acutely toxic compounds in dredged materials. Herein we present a conceptual overview for TIE use in part of the decision-making framework for selecting dredged material disposal options; included are discussions concerning appropriate test fractions and species for TIE analyses, and specific TIE manipulations useful for ascertaining whether toxicity is due to any of a number of common sediment contaminants including ammonia, hydrogen sulfide, metals, or nonpolar organics.     

SELECTING TREND TESTS FOR WATER QUALITY SERIES WITH SERIAL CORRELATION AND MISSING VALUES1

ABSTRACT: The use of nonparametric tests for monotonic trend has flourished in recent years to support routine water quality data analyses. The validity of an assumption of independent, identically distributed error terms is an important concern in selecting the appropriate nonparametric test, as is the presence of missing values. Decision rules are needed for choosing between alternative tests and for deciding whether and how to pre-process data before trend testing. Several data pre-processing procedures in conjunction with the Mann-Kendall tau and the Seasonal Kendall test (with and without serial correlation correction) are evaluated using synthetic time series with generated serial correlation and missing data. A composite test (pre-testing for serial correlation followed by one of two trend tests) is evaluated and was found to perform satisfactorily.     

Cumulative silvicultural impacts on watersheds: A hydrologic and regulatory dilemma

Because of the nature of watersheds, the hydrologic and erosional impacts of logging and related road-building activities may move offsite, affecting areas downslope and downstream from the operation. The degree to which this occurs depends on the interaction of many variables, including soils, bedrock geology, vegetation, the timing and size of storm events, logging technology, and operator performance. In parts of northwestern California, these variables combine to produce significant water quality degradation, with resulting damage to anadromous fish habitat.Examination of recent aerial photographs, combined with a review of public records, shows that many timber harvest operations were concentrated in a single 83 km² watershed in the lower Klamath River Basin within the past decade. The resulting soil disturbance in this case seems likely to result in cumulative off-site water quality degradation in the lower portion of the Basin.In California, both state and federal laws require consideration of possible cumulative effects of multiple timber harvest operations. In spite of recent reforms that have given the state a larger role in regulating forest practices on private land, each timber harvest plan is still evaluated in isolation from other plans in the same watershed. A process of collaborative state-private watershed planning with increased input of geologic information offers the best long-term approach to the problem of assessing cumulative effects of multiple timber harvest operations. Such a reform could ultimately emerge from the ongoing water quality planning process under Section 208 of the amended Federal Water Pollution Control Act.     

EVALUATION OF COPPER ACCUMULATION IN PART OF THE CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT1

ABSTRACT: Copper sulfate has been used extensively in the California Aqueduct to control phytoplankton and the alga Cladophora. Since 1969 more than 250,000 pounds of copper sulfate has been added to a part of the aqueduct. Although copper sulfate is effective in controlling algae, copper tends to accumulate in the system in which it is applied. Samples of water, biota including plants, clams, and snails, as well as sediment were analyzed for copper. Results of these analyses showed that copper concentrations in the water, with three exceptions, were less than 10 micrograms per litre. Samples of plant tissue showed a 198 percent increase in copper concentration in the treated reach of the aqueduct, and clam tissue showed a 68 percent increase. Snails in the treated reach had 77 percent more copper than in the untreated reach whereas copper concentrations in the sediment doubled. None of the concentrations found are considered to be harmful to the biota.