A REVIEW OF APPLICATION ISSUES OF THE METROPOLITAN WATER DISTRICT-MAIN WATER FORECASTING SYSTEM1

ABSTRACT: This paper reviews the processes that occurred during an application of the Metropolitan Water District (MWD)-MAIN water use forecasting system for the City of Salinas, California. The review includes an analysis of sources of available data, methods for estimating input data, calibration, and verification of the MWD-MAIN System, and an evaluation of the reliability of system output. We found that inexperienced users can have difficulty understanding the level of skill, knowledge, and amount of data that are required to produce reliable forecasts. Some of the issues associated with application of the MWD-MAIN System include the following:

• ? All input data needed for accurate forecasts simply are not available for many cities and towns.
• ? The data requirements are more extensive than many users anticipate.
• ? Substantial requirements for manipulation of input data produces opportunity for error that creates major time demands in troubleshooting.
• ? Calibration and verification for specific uses can be substantially more difficult than is readily apparent from the guidance manual.
• ? Independent validity checks need to be done to validate system output.
• ? If specified calibrating procedures do not produce reasonable results, reestimating slope coefficients is an option, but this requires resources and expertise that can easily exceed the limits of most users.

These are problems typical of most complex models. Reviews such as this can help users to appreciate the level of data required, and to use the MWD-MAIN System in a more effective and efficient manner.     

Emission standards and price distortion

A simple model is presented which demonstrates that emission standards can either reduce or increase the distortions inherent in preregulatory relative prices. This model is used in conjunction with data for controlling air pollution in the St. Louis airshed under a least-cost set of emission standards. By applying a heuristic formula, it is concluded that this set of standards is distortion neutral. Although there is reason to believe that conventional emission standards are distortion reducing, it is clear that Pigouvian fees achieve technical efficiency in abatement as well as the elimination of price distortion.     

RIPARIAN COMMUNITIES ASSOCIATED WITH PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADWATER STREAMS: ASSEMBLAGES,PROCESSES, AND UNIQUENESS1

Riparian areas of large streams provide important habitat to many species and control many instream processes — but is the same true for the margins of small streams? This review considers riparian areas alongside small streams in forested, mountainous areas of the Pacific Northwest and asks if there are fundamental ecological differences from larger streams and from other regions and if there are consequences for management from any differences. In the moist forests along many small streams of the Pacific Northwest, the contrast between the streamside and upslope forest is not as strong as that found in drier regions. Small streams typically lack floodplains, and the riparian area is often constrained by the hillslope. Nevertheless, riparian‐associated organisms, some unique to headwater areas, are found along small streams. Disturbance of hillslopes and stream channels and microclimatic effects of streams on the riparian area provide great heterogeneity in processes and diversity of habitats. The tight coupling of the terrestrial riparian area with the aquatic system results from the closed canopy and high edge‐to‐area ratio for small streams. Riparian areas of the temperate, conifer dominated forests of the Pacific Northwest provide a unique environment. Forest management guidelines for small streams vary widely, and there has been little evaluation of the local or downstream consequences of forest practices along small streams.     

ALGAL PRODUCTIVITY AND NITRATE ASSIMILATION IN AN EFFLUENT DOMINATED CONCRETE LINED STREAM1

This study examined algal productivity and nitrate assimilation in a 2.85 km reach of Cucamonga Creek, California, a concrete lined channel receiving treated municipal wastewater. Stream nitrate concentrations observed at two stations indicated nearly continuous loss throughout the diel study. Nitrate loss in the reach was approximately 11 mg/L/d or 1.0 g/m²/d as N, most of which occurred during daylight. The peak rate of nitrate loss (1.13 mg/l/hr) occurred just prior to an afternoon total CO₂ depletion. Gross primary productivity, as estimated by a model using the observed differences in dissolved oxygen between the two stations, was 228 mg/L/d, or 21 g/m²/d as O₂. The observed diel variations in productivity, nitrate loss, pH, dissolved oxygen, and CO₂ indicate that nitrate loss was primarily due to algal assimilation. The observed levels of productivity and nitrate assimilation were exceptionally high on a mass per volume basis compared to studies on other streams; these rates occurred because of the shallow stream depth. This study suggests that concrete‐lined channels can provide an important environmental service: lowering of nitrate concentrations similar to rates observed in biological treatment systems.     

Associating Ecosystem Service Losses with Indicators of Toxicity in Habitat Equivalency Analysis

Habitat equivalency analysis (HEA) was developed as a tool to scale mitigation or restoration when habitat is contaminated by hazardous substances or has been otherwise harmed by anthropogenic activities. Applying HEA involves balancing reductions in habitat quality against gains from restoration actions, and quantifying changes in habitat quality in terms of ecological services. We propose a framework for developing ecological service definitions and measures that incorporate knowledge about the impacts of chemical contaminants on biota. We describe a general model for integrating multiple lines of evidence about the toxicity of hazardous substances to allow mapping of toxicological inputs to ecological service losses. We provide an example of how this framework might be used in a HEA that quantifies ecological services provided by estuarine sediments contaminated with polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.     

Cross-taxonomic potential and spatial transferability of an umbrella species index

Validation that conservation of certain species effectively protects a high proportion of co-occurring species is rare. Our previous work has suggested that an umbrella index based on geographic distribution and life history characteristics would maximize the proportion of conspecifics protected per unit area conserved. Using bird and butterfly data from three mountain ranges in the Great Basin, we examined whether umbrella species also would confer protection to species in different taxonomic groups. Further, we addressed the spatial transferability of umbrella species by considering whether species identified as umbrellas in one mountain range would be effective umbrellas in other mountain ranges. Overall, equal proportions of species would be protected using either cross-taxonomic umbrella species or same-taxon umbrella species. Our data suggested that in a given mountain range, umbrella species identified using data from the same mountain range versus a different mountain range would be equally effective. The ability of one set of umbrella species to confer protection to co-occurring species, however, may vary among taxonomic groups and geographic regions.     

Multivariate Analysis of the Ecoregion Delineation for Aquatic Systems

The ecoregion concept is a popular method of understanding the spatial distribution of the environment', however, it has yet to be adequately demonstrated that the environment is distributed in accordance with these bounded units. In this paper, we generated a testable hypothesis based on the current usage of ecoregions: the ecoregion classification will allow for discrimination between lakes of different water quality. The ecoregion classification should also be more effective better than a comparably scaled classification based on political boundaries, land-use class, or random grouping. To test this hypothesis we used the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) lake water chemistry data from the northeast United States. The water chemistry data were reduced to four components using principal component analysis. For comparison to an optimal grouping of these data we used K-means cluster analysis to define the extent at which these lakes could be segregated into distinct classes. Jackknifed discriminant analysis was used to determine the classification rate of ecoregions, the three alternative spatial classification methods, and the clustering algorithm. The classification based on ecoregions was successful for 35% of the lakes included in this study, in comparison to the clustered groups accuracy of 98%. These results suggest that the large scale spatial distribution of ecosystem types is more complicated than that suggested by the present ecoregion boundaries. Further tests of ecoregion delineations are needed and alternative large-scale management strategies should be investigated.     

NEGOTIATING SCIENCE AND VALUES WITH STAKEHOLDERS IN THE ILLINOIS RIVER BASIN1

ABSTRACT: Current research in the Illinois River Basin is designed to develop and test a policy formulation protocol that will foster watershed management policy that is fully legitimated (i.e., policy that is technically effective, economically efficient, administratively implementable, politically feasible, and socially acceptable). This paper describes the results of the initial baseline impact assessment that includes physical, biological, economic, legal, and social systems as well as the development of a watershed management decision support system that is used to integrate technical information and analyses, and to facilitate policy maker and stakeholder negotiation workshops. Numerically modeled and visually simulated environmental impacts serve as the basis for developing alternative policy maker scenarios for prospective watershed management policies. These scenarios, which will be subjected to stakeholder review and negotiation, will undergo iterative review and amendment by policy makers and stakeholder groups to produce a recommended watershed management policy that satisfies all five substantive legitimation criteria. Preliminary results from the baseline social impact assessment indicate that fully legitimated policy is indeed obtainable.     

CULTURAL EVOLUTION AND WATER MANAGEMENT IN THE SALINAS RIVER VALLEY1

ABSTRACT: This article reports the findings of a case study of a major California water management district's effort to change its management approach. The following key findings and factors have influenced the Salinas basin management plan (BMP) and its progress: (1) the Salinas Valley is an economy dominated by highly sophisticated irrigated agriculture dependent on ground water; (2) a persistent pattern of agricultural overdraft of ground water has hurt growers primarily in the north end of the valley via induced saline intrusion of irrigation wells; (3) a complex set of water institutions, property and water rights, and land lease practices offer little incentive for good stewardship of land and water; and (4) the BMP approach initially may have intensified tension among growers and between growers and other water user groups. Water rules and practices in the Salinas Valley and Monterey County have evolved through a long historical process of adaptations. Therefore, any significant changes in local water use practices need to be understood in terms of cultural change, that is, changes in deeply held values, beliefs, and assumptions. We believe the BMP and the MCWRA are succeeding when evaluated from this evolutionary perspective. The fact that both still exist relatively intact testifies that they are working, albeit slowly.