Baselines for land-use change in the tropics: application to avoided deforestation projects

Although forest conservation activities, particularly in the tropics, offer significant potential for mitigating carbon (C) emissions, these types of activities have faced obstacles in the policy arena caused by the difficulty in determining key elements of the project cycle, particularly the baseline. A baseline for forest conservation has two main components: the projected land-use change and the corresponding carbon stocks in applicable pools in vegetation and soil, with land-use change being the most difficult to address analytically. In this paper we focus on developing and comparing three models, ranging from relatively simple extrapolations of past trends in land use based on simple drivers such as population growth to more complex extrapolations of past trends using spatially explicit models of land-use change driven by biophysical and socioeconomic factors. The three models used for making baseline projections of tropical deforestation at the regional scale are: the Forest Area Change (FAC) model, the Land Use and Carbon Sequestration (LUCS) model, and the Geographical Modeling (GEOMOD) model. The models were used to project deforestation in six tropical regions that featured different ecological and socioeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and uses of the land: (1) northern Belize; (2) Santa Cruz State, Bolivia; (3) Paraná State, Brazil; (4) Campeche, Mexico; (5) Chiapas, Mexico; and (6) Michoacán, Mexico. A comparison of all model outputs across all six regions shows that each model produced quite different deforestation baselines. In general, the simplest FAC model, applied at the national administrative-unit scale, projected the highest amount of forest loss (four out of six regions) and the LUCS model the least amount of loss (four out of five regions). Based on simulations of GEOMOD, we found that readily observable physical and biological factors as well as distance to areas of past disturbance were each about twice as important as either sociological/demographic or economic/infrastructure factors (less observable) in explaining empirical land-use patterns. We propose from the lessons learned, a methodology comprised of three main steps and six tasks can be used to begin developing credible baselines. We also propose that the baselines be projected over a 10-year period because, although projections beyond 10 years are feasible, they are likely to be unrealistic for policy purposes. In the first step, an historic land-use change and deforestation estimate is made by determining the analytic domain (size of the region relative to the size of proposed project), obtaining historic data, analyzing candidate baseline drivers, and identifying three to four major drivers. In the second step, a baseline of where deforestation is likely to occur–a potential land-use change (PLUC) map—is produced using a spatial model such as GEOMOD that uses the key drivers from step one. Then rates of deforestation are projected over a 10-year baseline period based on one of the three models. Using the PLUC maps, projected rates of deforestation, and carbon stock estimates, baseline projections are developed that can be used for project GHG accounting and crediting purposes: The final step proposes that, at agreed interval (e.g., about 10 years), the baseline assumptions about baseline drivers be re-assessed. This step reviews the viability of the 10-year baseline in light of changes in one or more key baseline drivers (e.g., new roads, new communities, new protected area, etc.). The potential land-use change map and estimates of rates of deforestation could be re-done at the agreed interval, allowing the deforestation rates and changes in spatial drivers to be incorporated into a defense of the existing baseline, or the derivation of a new baseline projection.     

Prenatal cannibalism in an insect

Host selection and infection strategies of parasitoids often correlate with high parental investment and low numbers of progeny. In this study, we investigate how additional internal mechanisms might shape brood size and fitness of the offspring. Emblemasoma auditrix is a parasitoid fly in which about 38 larvae hatch simultaneously in utero. After host location, a single larva is deposited into the host, where it rapidly develops and pupates after about 5 days. The search for hosts can take several weeks, and during that time, the larvae arrest their development and remain in the first larval instar. Nevertheless, the larvae increase in weight within the uterus, and this growth correlates to a decrease in the number of larvae, although no larvae are deposited. Thus, our data indicate a first case of prenatal cannibalism in an invertebrate with larvae feeding on each other within the uterus of the adult.     

A juvenile lizard specimen with well-preserved skin impressions from the Upper Jurassic/Lower Cretaceous of Daohugou, Inner Mongolia, China

Lizards are now relatively well known from the Yixian Formation of northeastern China. In this study, we describe a juvenile lizard from a fossil horizon at Daohugou, Inner Mongolia. These beds predate the Yixian Formation, and are probably Late Jurassic or earliest Cretaceous in age. The new specimen thus documents the first lizard material from the Daohugou locality and is the earliest lizard skeleton from China. Comparisons with developmental stages of modern lizards suggest the Daohugou lizard is a hatchling. Although tiny, the specimen is notable in preserving exquisite skin impressions showing the variation in scalation across the body, the shape and position of the cloacal outlet, and details of the manus and pes. These are the earliest recorded lepidosaurian skin traces. In its general proportions and the possession of paired frontals, the small Daohugou lizard resembles both the Yixian taxon Yabeinosaurus tenuis and the questionable Jeholacerta formosa, but it differs from the latter in scalation and, based on other characters, may be distinct from both.     

Male satin bowerbirds (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ptilonorhynchus violaceus</Emphasis>) compensate for sexual signal loss by enhancing multiple display features

Numerous studies have focussed on the relationship between female choice and the multiple exaggerated sexual traits of males. However, little is known about the ability of males to actively enhance specific components of their display in response to the loss of one component. We investigated the capacity of male satin bowerbirds (Ptilonorhynchus violaceus) to respond to the loss of one of their sexual signals by performing an experiment in which we removed decorations at their bowers. We found that males compensated for decoration loss by increasing bower construction behaviour and decreasing their latency to bower painting. These results are novel because they suggest that males can assess the quality of their own display and make decisions about how to augment their displays. We discuss these results in the context of previous studies of mate choice in satin bowerbirds, as both of the supplementary behaviours we observed are known correlates of male mating success.     

Unemployment effects of climate policy

This paper models the unemployment effects of restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions, embodying two of the most significant types of short-term economic imperfections that generate unemployment: sectoral rigidities in labor mobility and sectoral rigidities in wage adjustments. A labor policy is also analyzed that would reduce the direct negative economic effects of the emissions restrictions.The politics of limiting greenhouse gas emissions are often dominated by relatively short-term considerations. Yet the current economic modeling of emissions limitations does not embody economic features that are likely to be particularly important in the short term, in particular, the politically sensitive unemployment rate. Moreover, only a few of these studies also consider policies that would offset the negative direct economic effects of emissions restrictions. For plausible estimates of the parameters, the model shows that, with the labor market imperfections, if there were no offsetting policies, the reductions in GNP in the U.S. in the first 10 years after emissions restrictions were imposed would be as much as 4%. However, if there were two policies, instead of just one: a counteracting labor market policy, as well as the emissions restrictions, the negative direct economic effects could be completely eliminated.     

Land use change and forestry climate project regional baselines: a review

Climate change programs have largely used the project-specific approach for estimating baseline emissions of climate mitigation projects. This approach is subjective, lacks transparency, can generate inconsistent baselines for similar projects, and is likely to have high transaction costs. The use of regional baselines, which partially addresses these issues, has been reported in the literature on forestry and agriculture projects, and in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation program guidance for them (e.g., WRI/WBCSD GHG Project Protocol, USDOE’s 1605(b) registry, UNFCCC’s Clean Development Mechanism). This paper provides an assessment of project-specific and regional baselines approaches for key baseline tasks, using project and program examples. The regional experience to date is then synthesized into generic steps that are referred to as Stratified Regional Baselines (SRB). Regional approaches generally, and SRB in particular explicitly acknowledge the heterogeneity of carbon density, land use change, and other key baseline driver variables across a landscape. SRB focuses on providing guidance on how to stratify lands into parcels with relatively homogeneous characteristics to estimate conservative baselines within a GHG assessment boundary, by applying systematic methods to determine the boundary and time period for input data.

Spiroplasma infection causes either early or late male killing in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Drosophila</Emphasis>, depending on maternal host age

Symbiont-induced male-killing phenotypes have been found in a variety of insects. Conventionally, these phenotypes have been divided into two categories according to the timing of action: early male killing at embryonic stages and late male killing at late larval stages. In Drosophila species, endosymbiotic bacteria of the genus Spiroplasma have been known to cause early male killing. Here, we report that a spiroplasma strain normally causing early male killing also induces late male killing depending on the maternal host age: male-specific mortality of larvae and pupae was more frequently observed in the offspring of young females. As the lowest spiroplasma density and occasional male production were also associated with newly emerged females, we proposed the density-dependent hypothesis for the expression of early and late male-killing phenotypes. Our finding suggested that (1) early and late male-killing phenotypes can be caused by the same symbiont and probably by the same mechanism; (2) late male killing may occur as an attenuated expression of early male killing; (3) expression of early and late male-killing phenotypes may be dependent on the symbiont density, and thus, could potentially be affected by the host immunity and regulation; and (4) early male killing and late male killing could be alternative strategies adopted by microbial reproductive manipulators.     

Settlement decisions in blue tits: difference in the use of social information according to age and individual success

Dispersers are expected to assess breeding habitat quality before settlement. Although cues reflecting habitat quality are well studied, social cues have not been as well evaluated. In this paper, we studied breeding habitat selection during 3 years in a natural population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus, breeding in nest-boxes. Our aim was to investigate if this species used conspecific density and/or reproductive success of con- and heterospecifics (i.e., social cues) in settlement decisions. The patterns observed were consistent with the idea that juveniles, when dispersing from their natal patches, did not react to any of the cues that we tested. In contrast, breeders that dispersed seemed to respond to both conspecific mean patch reproductive success (PRS) and breeding density of the settlement patch in the year of dispersal, their response differing according to their own reproductive success. Indeed, failed breeders moved to areas with high PRS and low density relative to source patches, while successful breeders behaved the opposite. The comparison between juveniles and adults might be modulated by the limited time available to juveniles to gather information on PRS and density at the end of the dispersing year. Adults lacking these time constraints, however, seemed to rely on these conspecific cues although limited by their own quality. Additionally, breeders were more likely to be immigrants in patches with relatively low breeding success and density the previous year, suggesting that settlement is influenced by multiple cues, which may reveal information on different aspects of habitat and be available at different moments. Collectively, our results support the importance of social cues for blue tits’ settlement.     

Power matters in closing the phenotyping gap

Much of our understanding of physiology and metabolism is derived from investigating mouse mutants and transgenic mice, and open-access platforms for standardized mouse phenotyping such as the German Mouse Clinic (GMC) are currently viewed as one powerful tool for identifying novel gene-function relationships. Phenotyping or phenotypic screening involves the comparison of wild-type control mice with their mutant or transgenic littermates. In our study, we explored the extent to which standardized phenotyping will succeed in detecting biologically relevant phenotypic differences in mice generated and provided by different collaborators. We analyzed quantitative metabolic data (body mass, energy intake, and energy metabolized) collected at the GMC under the current workflow, and used them for statistical power considerations. Our results demonstrate that there is substantial variability in these parameters among lines of wild-type C57BL/6 (B6) mice from different sources. Given this variable background noise in mice that serve as controls, subtle phenotypes in mutant or transgenic littermates may be overlooked. Furthermore, a phenotype observed in one cohort of a mutant line may not be reproducible (to the same extent) in mice coming from a different environment or supplier. In the light of these constraints, we encourage researchers to incorporate information on intrastrain variability into future study planning, or to perform advanced hierarchical analyses. Both will ultimately improve the detectability of novel phenotypes by phenotypic screening. Carola W. Meyer and Ralf Elvert contributed equally to this work.     

Soil and preen waxes influence the expression of carotenoid-based plumage coloration

The signaling function of carotenoid-based plumage is mainly determined by the concentration of pigments in feathers. For this reason, most studies of the proximate control of coloration focus on processes during and preceding moult. In great tits Parus major, past research demonstrates that carotenoid-based plumage coloration honestly indicates male quality and, thus, may be a sexually selected signal. In this study, we investigate how dirt and preen oil influence the coloration of carotenoid-based feathers in the great tit. We collected six feathers from each individual bird; three feathers served as controls while the remaining three feathers were washed with a chloroform/methanol mixture to remove soil and preen waxes. We assessed plumage coloration using digital photography. This cleaning procedure slightly enhanced ornamentation; the experimentally cleaned feathers expressed hues shifted towards shorter wavelengths and expressed brighter overall coloration than control feathers. This is the first experimental study conducted on wild birds demonstrating that, in addition to pigment concentration, the presence of preen waxes and soils on feathers may contribute to variation in coloration.