A new approach for layout optimization in maintenance workshops with safety factors: The case of a gas transmission unit

In this study, an Integrated Simulation-Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach is presented for optimum facility layout of maintenance workshop in a gas transmission unit. The process of repair of incoming parts includes various operations on different facilities. The layout problem in this system involves determining the optimum location of all maintenance shop facilities. Layout optimization plays a crucial role in this type of problems in terms of increasing the efficiency of main production line. Standard types of layouts including U, S, W, Z and straight lines are considered. First, the maintenance workshop is modeled with discrete-event-simulation. Time in system, average waiting time, average machine utilization, average availability of facilities, average queue length of facilities (AL) and average operator utilization are obtained from simulation as key performance indicators (KPIs) of DEA. Also, safety index and number of operators are considered as other KPIs. Finally, a unified non-radial Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is presented with respect to the stated KPIs to rank all layouts alternatives and to identify the best configuration. Principle Component Analysis (PCA) is used to validate and verify the results. Previous studies do not consider safety factor in layout design problems. This is the first study that presents an integrated approach for identification of optimum layout in a maintenance workshop of gas transmission unit by incorporating safety and conventional factors.     

Environmental risk mapping of accidental pollution and its zonal prevention in a city

Accidental releases of pollution can have severe environmental, societal, economic, and institutional consequences. This paper considers the use of risk mapping of accidental pollution events, and zonal prevention measures for alleviating the impact on large urban areas. An Environmental Pollution Accident Risk Mapping (EPARM) model is constructed according to a mapping index system supported by quantitative sub-models dedicated to evaluating the risk arising from different sources of potential accidental pollution. The EPARM approach consists of identifying suitable indexes, assessment of environmental risk at regional and national scales based on information on previous pollution accidents and the prevailing environmental and social conditions, and use of GIS to map the overall risk. A case study of pollution accidents in Minghang District, Shanghai, China is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model. The paper also proposes a systemic framework for accidental environmental pollution risk prevention, and detailed countermeasures for specific risk zones.     

Using long-term data for a reintroduced population to empirically estimate future consequences of inbreeding

Inbreeding depression is an important long-term threat to reintroduced populations. However, the strength of inbreeding depression is difficult to estimate in wild populations because pedigree data are inevitably incomplete and because good data are needed on survival and reproduction. Predicting future population consequences is especially difficult because this also requires projecting future inbreeding levels and their impacts on long-term population dynamics, which are subject to many uncertainties. We illustrate how such projections can be derived through Bayesian state-space modeling methods based on a 26-year data set for North Island Robins (Petroica longipes) reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi Island in 1992. We used pedigree data to model increases in the average inbreeding level (F ) over time based on kinship of possible breeding pairs and to estimate empirically N_e/N (effective/census population size). We used multiple imputation to model the unknown components of inbreeding coefficients, which allowed us to estimate effects of inbreeding on survival for all 1458 birds in the data set while modeling density dependence and environmental stochasticity. This modeling indicated that inbreeding reduced juvenile survival (1.83 lethal equivalents [SE 0.81]) and may have reduced subsequent adult survival (0.44 lethal equivalents [0.81]) but had no apparent effect on numbers of fledglings produced. Average inbreeding level increased to 0.10 (SE 0.001) as the population grew from 33 (0.3) to 160 (6) individuals over the 25 years, giving a ratio of 0.56 (0.01). Based on a model that also incorporated habitat regeneration, the population was projected to reach a maximum of 331–1144 birds (median 726) in 2130, then to begin a slow decline. Without inbreeding, the population would be expected stabilize at 887–1465 birds (median 1131). Such analysis, therefore, makes it possible to empirically derive the information needed for rational decisions about inbreeding management while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty.     

Antipredator activity and endogenous biosynthesis of defensive secretion in larval and pupal Delphastus catalinae (Horn) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Delphastus catalinae (Horn) is a predatory ladybird beetle (Coccinellidae) commonly used as a biocontrol agent against greenhouse infestation by whiteflies. It belongs to the basal subfamily Microweisinae, a group for which chemical defenses have not been previously investigated. The larval and pupal stages of D. catalinae possess minute secretory hairs that produce droplets containing compounds of both isoprenoid and polyketide origin. Bioassays with the predatory ant Crematogaster lineolata showed both the larval and pupal secretions to be deterrent. Moreover, isolated secretion components, from both classes of compounds, displayed antipredator activity against the ant. Experiments with D. catalinae larvae fed isotopically labeled glucose showed ¹³C-incorporation into both categories of compounds within the pupal secretion, demonstrating that these antipredator compounds, which differ from the typical nitrogenous defensive molecules of coccinellids, are biosynthesized endogenously. This suggests that the wide use of alkaloids by more derived coccinellids may have arisen after their divergence from the more basal Microweisinae.     

Systematic Temporal Patterns in the Relationship Between Housing Development and Forest Bird Biodiversity

As people encroach increasingly on natural areas, one question is how this affects avian biodiversity. The answer to this is partly scale‐dependent. At broad scales, human populations and biodiversity concentrate in the same areas and are positively associated, but at local scales people and biodiversity are negatively associated with biodiversity. We investigated whether there is also a systematic temporal trend in the relationship between bird biodiversity and housing development. We used linear regression to examine associations between forest bird species richness and housing growth in the conterminous United States over 30 years. Our data sources were the North American Breeding Bird Survey and the 2000 decennial U.S. Census. In the 9 largest forested ecoregions, housing density increased continually over time. Across the conterminous United States, the association between bird species richness and housing density was positive for virtually all guilds except ground nesting birds. We found a systematic trajectory of declining bird species richness as housing increased through time. In more recently developed ecoregions, where housing density was still low, the association with bird species richness was neutral or positive. In ecoregions that were developed earlier and where housing density was highest, the association of housing density with bird species richness for most guilds was negative and grew stronger with advancing decades. We propose that in general the relationship between human settlement and biodiversity over time unfolds as a 2‐phase process. The first phase is apparently innocuous; associations are positive due to coincidence of low‐density housing with high biodiversity. The second phase is highly detrimental to biodiversity, and increases in housing density are associated with biodiversity losses. The long‐term effect on biodiversity depends on the final housing density. This general pattern can help unify our understanding of the relationship of human encroachment and biodiversity response. Patrones Sistemáticos Temporales en la Relación entre Desarrollos Urbanos y la Biodiversidad de Aves de Bosque     

Plant blindness and the implications for plant conservation

Plant conservation initiatives lag behind and receive considerably less funding than animal conservation projects. We explored a potential reason for this bias: a tendency among humans to neither notice nor value plants in the environment. Experimental research and surveys have demonstrated higher preference for, superior recall of, and better visual detection of animals compared with plants. This bias has been attributed to perceptual factors such as lack of motion by plants and the tendency of plants to visually blend together but also to cultural factors such as a greater focus on animals in formal biological education. In contrast, ethnographic research reveals that many social groups have strong bonds with plants, including nonhierarchical kinship relationships. We argue that plant blindness is common, but not inevitable. If immersed in a plant‐affiliated culture, the individual will experience language and practices that enhance capacity to detect, recall, and value plants, something less likely to occur in zoocentric societies. Therefore, conservation programs can contribute to reducing this bias. We considered strategies that might reduce this bias and encourage plant conservation behavior. Psychological research demonstrates that people are more likely to support conservation of species that have human‐like characteristics and that support for conservation can be increased by encouraging people to practice empathy and anthropomorphism of nonhuman species. We argue that support for plant conservation may be garnered through strategies that promote identification and empathy with plants.     

Quantifying population declines based on presence‐only records for red‐list assessments

Accurate trend estimates are necessary for understanding which species are declining and which are most in need of conservation action. Imperfect species detection may result in unreliable trend estimates because this may lead to the overestimation of declines. Because many management decisions are based on population trend estimates, such biases could have severe consequences for conservation policy. We used an occupancy‐modeling framework to estimate detectability and calculate nationwide population trends for 14 Swiss amphibian species both accounting for and ignoring imperfect detection. Through the application of International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List criteria to the different trend estimates, we assessed whether ignoring imperfect detection could affect conservation policy. Imperfect detection occurred for all species and detection varied substantially among species, which led to the overestimation of population declines when detectability was ignored. Consequently, accounting for imperfect detection lowered the red‐list risk category for 5 of the 14 species assessed. We demonstrate that failing to consider species detectability can have serious consequences for species management and that occupancy modeling provides a flexible framework to account for observation bias and improve assessments of conservation status. A problem inherent to most historical records is that they contain presence‐only data from which only relative declines can be estimated. A move toward the routine recording of nonobservation and absence data is essential if conservation practitioners are to move beyond this toward accurate population trend estimation.