Geostatistical analysis as applied to two environmental radiometric time series

This article details the results of an investigation into the application of geostatistical data analysis to two environmentalradiometric time series. The data series employed consist of ⁹⁹Tc values for seaweed (Fucus vesiculosus) and seawater samples taken as part of a marine monitoring program conducted on the coast of northern Norway by the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. Geostatistical methods were selected in order to provide information on values of the variables at unsampled times and to investigate the temporalcorrelation exhibited by the data sets. This information is ofuse in the optimisation of future sampling schemes and for providing information on the temporal behaviour of the variablesin question that may not be obtained during a cursory analysis.The results indicate a high degree of temporal correlation withinthe data sets, the correlation for the seawater and seaweed databeing modelled with an exponential and linear function,respectively. The semi-variogram for the seawater data indicatesa temporal range of correlation of approximately 395 days with noapparent random component to the overall variance structure and was described best by an exponential function. The temporal structure of the seaweed data was best modelled by a linear function with a small nugget component. Evidence of drift was present in both semi-variograms. Interpolation of the data setsusing the fitted models and a simple kriging procedure were compared, using a cross-validation procedure, with simple linearinterpolation. Results of this exercise indicate that, for theseawater data, the kriging procedure outperformed the simpleinterpolation with respect to error distribution andcorrelation of estimates with actual values. Using theunbounded linear model with the seaweed data produced estimatesthat were only marginally better than those produced by thesimple interpolation.     

Large particles are responsible for elevated bacterial marker levels in school air upon occupation

Muramic acid (Mur) is found in bacterial peptidoglycan (PG) whereas 3-hydroxy fatty acids (3-OH FAs) are found in Gram-negative bacterial lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Thus Mur and 3-OH FAs serve as markers to assess bacterial levels in indoor air. An initial survey, in a school, demonstrated that the levels of dust, PG and LPS (pmol m(-3)) were each much higher in occupied rooms than in the same rooms when unoccupied. In each instance, the Mur content of dust was increased and the hydroxy fatty acid distribution changed similarly suggesting an alteration in the bacterial population. Here, findings are compared with results from two additional schools. Follow-up aerosol monitoring by particle size was also performed for the first time for all 3 schools. The particle size distribution was shown to be quite different in occupied versus unoccupied schoolrooms. Within individual classrooms, concentrations of airborne particles [greater-than-or-equal]0.8 [micro sign]m in diameter, and CO(2) were correlated. This suggests that the increased levels of larger particles are responsible for elevation of bacterial markers during occupation. Release of culturable and non-culturable bacteria or bacterial aggregates from children (e.g. from flaking skin) might explain this phenomenon.     

The Sensitivity of California Water Resources to Climate Change Scenarios1

Abstract: Using the latest available General Circulation Model (GCM) results we present an assessment of climate change impacts on California hydrology and water resources. The approach considers the output of two GCMs, the PCM and the HadCM3, run under two different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios: the high emission A1fi and the low emission B1. The GCM output was statistically downscaled and used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale distributed hydrologic model to derive inflows to major reservoirs in the California Central Valley. Historical inflows used as inputs to the water resources model CalSim II were modified to represent the climate change perturbed conditions for water supply deliveries, reliability, reservoir storage and changes to variables of environmental concern. Our results show greater negative impacts to California hydrology and water resources than previous assessments of climate change impacts in the region. These impacts, which translate into smaller streamflows, lower reservoir storage and decreased water supply deliveries and reliability, will be especially pronounced later in the 21st Century and south of the San Francisco bay Delta. The importance of considering how climate change impacts vary for different temporal, spatial, and institutional conditions in addition to the average impacts is also demonstrated.     

The dispersion of 99Tc in the Nordic Seas and the Arctic Ocean: a comparison of model results and observations

The radionuclide (99)Tc had been discharged from the nuclear reprocessing facility in Sellafield (UK) into the Irish Sea in increased amounts in the 1990s. We compare the simulated dispersion of (99)Tc in surface water as calculated by a hydrodynamic model and an assessment box model with field-observations from 1996 to 1999 to study concentrations, pathways and travel times. The model results are consistent with the observations and show the typical pathway of dissolved radionuclides from the Irish Sea via the North Sea along the Norwegian Coast. Subsequently the contaminated water separates into three branches of which the two Arctic branches bear the potential for future monitoring of the signal in the next decades. The results of the hydrodynamic model indicate a large variability of surface concentrations in the West Spitsbergen Current which has implications for future monitoring strategies. According to the observed and simulated distributions we suggest an improved box model structure to better capture the pattern for concentrations at the surface.     

Transient dynamics of pelagic producer-grazer systems in a gradient of nutrients and mixing depths

Phytoplankton-grazer dynamics are often characterized by long transients relative to the length of the growing season. Using a phytoplankton-grazer model parameterized for Daphnia pulex with either flexible or fixed algal carbon:nutrient stoichiometry, we explored how nutrient and light supply (the latter by varying depth of the mixed water column) affect the transient dynamics of the system starting from low densities. The system goes through an initial oscillation across nearly the entire light-nutrient supply space. With flexible (but not with fixed) algal stoichiometry, duration of the initial algal peak, timing and duration of the subsequent grazer peak, and timing of the algal minimum are consistently accelerated by nutrient enrichment but decelerated by light enrichment (decreasing mixing depth) over the range of intermediate to shallow mixing depths. These contrasting effects of nutrient vs. light enrichment are consequences of their opposing influences on food quality (algal nutrient content): algal productivity and food quality are positively related along a nutrient gradient but inversely related along a light gradient. Light enrichment therefore slows down grazer growth relative to algal growth, decelerating oscillatory dynamics; nutrient enrichment has opposite effects. We manipulated nutrient supply and mixing depth in a field enclosure experiment. The experimental results were qualitatively much more consistent with the flexible than with the fixed stoichiometry model. Nutrient enrichment increased Daphnia peak biomass, decreased algal minimum biomass, decreased the seston C:P ratio, and accelerated transient oscillatory dynamics. Light enrichment (decreasing mixing depth) produced the opposite patterns, except that Daphnia peak biomass increased monotonously with light enrichment, too. Thus, while the model predicts the possibility of the "paradox of energy enrichment" (a decrease in grazer biomass with light enrichment) at high light and low nutrient supply, this phenomenon did not occur in our experiment.     

Influence of fish on habitat choice of water birds: a whole system experiment

It is notoriously difficult to study population interactions among highly mobile animals that cannot be meaningfully confined to experimental plots of limited size. For example, migratory water birds are believed to suffer from competition with resident fish populations for shared food resources. While observational evidence in support of this hypothesis is accumulating, replicated experiments addressing this issue at the proper spatial scale are lacking. Here, we report from a replicated whole-system experiment in which we stocked large (0.07 km2), shallow (< or =2.5 m deep), highly eutrophic ponds in the bird protection area "Ismaninger Speichersee mit Fischteichen" with different densities of carp and assessed the responses of water birds and their food resources during summer over several years. In all years, the biomasses of benthic macroinvertebrates, macroalgae, and macrophytes as well as the densities of herbivorous, carnivorous, and omnivorous water birds were reduced in carp ponds compared to fishless ponds. The negative effects of carp on food resources and on the numbers of water birds feeding in carp ponds increased over the season (May-September) and were stronger at high than at low stocking densities of carp. Consequently, differences in resource densities between ponds with and without carp increased, and the ranking of ponds with respect to resource densities became more predictable over the season. These factors may have contributed to a seasonal improvement of the birds' abilities to track resource densities across ponds, as suggested by tight correlations of bird numbers on ponds with resource densities late, but not early, in the season.     

Anaerobic co-digestion of swine and poultry manure with municipal sewage sludge

The anaerobic digestion of municipal sewage sludge (SS) with swine manure (SM) and poultry manure (PM) was undertaken. It was found that a mixture of sewage sludge with a 30% addition of swine manure gave around 400 dm³/kgVS of biogas, whereas the maximal biogas yield from ternary mixture (SS:SM:PM = 70:20:10 by weight) was only 336 dm³/kgVS. An inhibition of methanogenesis by free ammonia was observed in poultry manure experiments. The anaerobic digestion was inefficient in pathogen inactivation as the reduction in the number of E. coli an Enterobacteriaceae was only by one logarithmic unit. A substantial portion of pathogens was also released into the supernatant.     

Survey of mercury,cadmium and lead content of household batteries

The objective of this work was to provide updated information on the development of the potential impact of heavy metal containing batteries on municipal waste and battery recycling processes following transposition of the new EU Batteries Directive 2006/66/EC. A representative sample of 146 different types of commercially available dry and button cells as well as lithium-ion accumulators for mobile phones were analysed for their mercury (Hg)-, cadmium (Cd)- and lead (Pb)-contents. The methods used for preparing the cells and analysing the heavy metals Hg, Cd, and Pb were either developed during a former study or newly developed. Several batteries contained higher mass fractions of mercury or cadmium than the EU limits. Only half of the batteries with mercury and/or lead fractions above the marking thresholds were labelled. Alkaline–manganese mono-cells and Li-ion accumulators, on average, contained the lowest heavy metal concentrations, while zinc–carbon batteries, on average, contained the highest levels.     

Governance models for nature-based solutions: Seventeen cases from Germany

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-020-01412-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.