Modelling photochemical oxidant formation, transport, deposition and exposure of terrestrial ecosystems

The chemical processes responsible for production of photochemical oxidants within the troposphere have been the subject of laboratory and field study throughout the last three decades. During the same period, models to simulate the atmospheric chemistry, transport and deposition of ozone (O(3)) from individual urban sources and from regions have been developed. The models differ greatly in the complexity of chemical schemes, in the underlying meteorology and in spatial and temporal resolution. Input information from land use, spatial and temporally disaggregated emission inventories and meteorology have all improved considerably in recent years and are not fully implemented in current models. The development of control strategies in both North America and Europe to close the gaps between current exceedances of environmental limits, guide values, critical levels or loads and full compliance with these limits provides the focus for policy makers and the support agencies for the research. The models represent the only method of testing a range of control options in advance of implementation. This paper describes currently applied models of photochemical oxidant production and transport at global and regional scales and their ability to simulate individual episodes as well as photochemical oxidant climatology. The success of current models in quantifying the exposure of terrestrial surfaces and the population to potentially damaging O(3) concentrations (and dose) is examined. The analysis shows the degree to which the underlying processes and their application within the models limit the quality of the model products.     

Collisions involving senior drivers: high-risk conditions and locations

OBJECTIVES: To better understand the characteristics of crashes involving senior drivers 65 and older, studies of these crashes were reviewed. METHODS: The review focused primarily on North American studies published since 1990. Studies point to important differences between the crashes of senior drivers and those of younger drivers. RESULTS. Numerous studies have found that senior drivers' crashes are much more likely than crashes of younger drivers to occur at intersections. Senior drivers have particularly high rates of involvement in intersection crashes when they are turning, and even more so when they are turning left. Senior drivers are more likely than younger drivers to have been at fault in these situations, typically because they failed to yield the right-of-way, disregarded the traffic signal, or committed some other traffic violation. Studies also suggest that the extent of overinvolvement of senior drivers in certain types of crashes generally increases with advancing age. CONCLUSIONS. The extent to which the distinctive characteristics of senior drivers' crashes may be due to changing travel patterns associated with aging, or physical or cognitive impairments related to the aging process, is unclear. Further research is needed to understand the pre-crash circumstances of older drivers' intersection crashes.     

Relative risk of abnormal karyotype in fetuses found to have an atrioventricular septal defect (AVSD) on fetal echocardiography

One hundred and twenty-five fetuses were identified as having an AVSD with normal venous connections, normal arterial connections and normal cardiac situs on fetal echocardiography. Fetal karyotype was known in 111 of these cases. The relative risk of fetal trisomy 21 at mid-trimester was 107 (95% CI 87–127) times the expected number of cases compared with risk from maternal age alone, and that for trisomy 21,18 or 13 was 95 (95% CI 79–109). This data may be useful in counselling pregnant women about risk of fetal karyotypic abnormality after a diagnosis of fetal AVSD. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Timing of hurricane emergency actions

Emergency actions to prepare for hurricanes often require more time than is available from official public warnings. This means that the preparedness official must decide not onlywhat to do butwhen to do it. The action decision system, described here, developed for use in the State of Florida, reformats the hurricane track forecast, a 72-h projection, prepared at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, to specify the probability of a strike at each of 12 vulnerable coastal communities, and then normalizes the value in terms of a composite of probabilities computed for historic hurricanes that struck the respective communities. The normalization, a ratio of the two probability values, current and historic, expressed as a percentage is defined as the level of risk. When this level reaches or exceeds 100% the risk level is defined as critical and the system recommends that emergency actions to prepare begin immediately.The system is founded upon individual hurricane climatologies and decision procedures that are tailored for use at each community. The action recommendations generated by the risk analyses with a 93% level of confidence relieve the preparedness official of the need to make meteorological decisions in timing evacuations and other critical measures, even when these must begin before official hurricane warnings are received.The work that provided the basis for this publication was supported by funding under a Cooperative Agreement with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. The substance and findings of the work are dedicated to the public. The authors are solely responsible for the accuracy of the statements and interpretations contained in the publication. Such interpretations do not necessarily reflect the views of the government.     

A human ecological assessment of air quality management: A convergence in economic and ecological thinking?

Traditional air pollution management practices are examined using the human ecological framework adopted by Boyden and others (1981) in their study of Hong Kong—the biohistorical or biosocial approach. The subsequent analysis of current air quality management practices assesses their effectiveness in protecting the overall health of both humans and the natural environment. The uncertainties inherent in air pollution management practices which emerge highlight the need to reduce emissions rather than rely on scientific knowledge to define clean air. The assessment also clearly defines roles for research in various areas such as atmospheric models, health effects, and environmental damage. The final recommendations emphasize the need for the introduction of such incentives to reduce emissions as economic instruments and warn against using health information to define clean air. Health and environmental damage information can, however, be used in risk assessment strategies together with atmospheric dispersion models.     

The role of lipids on sorption characteristics of freshwater- and wastewater-irrigated soils

The soil lipid fraction can play an important role in the sorption of organic compounds. In this study, the impact of the lipid fraction of freshwater- and wastewater-irrigated soils on the sorption of non- and relatively polar compounds was assessed. Lipid analyses revealed a clear difference between the two lipid fractions. The lipid extract from the wastewater-irrigated soil was consistent with mainly straight paraffinic chain materials; the lipid extract from freshwater-irrigated soil, on the other hand, exhibited stronger signals of aromatics, double bonds, ester, ether, and methyl, in addition to a smaller contribution from methylene protons. Our data suggest that lipid removal induced a stronger increase in the soil's sorption affinity for solutes capable of polar interactions such as atrazine (2-chloro-4-ethylamino-6-isopropylamino-1,3,5-triazine) and chlorotoluron (N'-(3-chloro-4-methylphenyl)-N,N-dimethylurea) as compared to phenanthrene. Moreover, the level of increase in sorption affinities due to lipid removal was much higher for the freshwater-irrigated soil than for its wastewater-irrigated counterpart, even though the level of lipids in the freshwater-irrigated soil was half that in the wastewater-irrigated one (6 vs. 11% of the total organic C). The higher level of polar functionalities, such as ether and ester moieties, in the lipid fraction from the freshwater-irrigated soil suggests that these extractable compounds compete successfully with the polar solutes (atrazine and chlorotoluron) for specific binding sites in the soil organic matter (SOM). It appears that the composition of the lipid fraction may be a key consideration in unraveling the sorption of organic molecules in soils.     

Optimizing the flow adjustment of constituent concentrations via LOESS for trend analysis

Trend analysis of stream constituent concentrations requires adjustment for exogenous variables like discharge because concentrations often have variable relations with flow. To remove the influence of flow on stream water quality data, an accurate characterization of the relationship between the constituent and streamflow is needed. One popular method, locally weighted regression (LOESS), provides an effective means for flow-adjusting concentrations. The LOESS fit can be tailored to the data via the smoothing parameter (f), so that the user can avoid overfitting or oversmoothing the data. However, it is a common practice to use a single f value when flow-adjusting water quality data for trend analysis. This study provides a robust, automated method for determining the optimal f value (f_opt) for each dataset via an iterative K-fold cross-validation procedure that minimizes prediction error in LOESS. The method is developed by analyzing datasets of seven different constituents across 17 sites (119 datasets total) from a stream monitoring program in northwest Arkansas (USA). We recommend using 10 iterations of 10-fold cross-validation (10?×?10 CV) in order to select f_opt when flow-adjusting water quality data with LOESS. The use of a default f value did not produce different trend interpretations for the data used here; however, the proposed approach may be helpful in other water quality studies which employ similar statistical fitting methods. Additionally, we provide an implementation of the method in the R statistical computing environment.