Applying Statistical Causal Analyses to Agricultural Conservation: A Case Study Examining P Loss Impacts

Estimating the effect of agricultural conservation practices on reducing nutrient loss using observational data can be confounded by factors such as differing crop types and management practices. As we may not have the full knowledge of these confounding factors, conventional statistical meta‐analysis methods can be misleading. We discuss the use of two statistical causal analysis methods for quantifying the effects of water and soil conservation practices in reducing P loss from agricultural fields. With the propensity score method, a subset of data was used to form a treatment group and a control group with similar distributions of confounding factors. With the multilevel modeling method, data were stratified based on important confounding factors, and the conservation practice effect was evaluated for each stratum. Both methods resulted in similar estimates of the conservation practice effect (total P load reduction avg. ~70%). In addition, both methods show evidence of conservation practices reducing the incremental increase in total P export per unit increase in fertilizer application. These results are presented as examples of the types of outcomes provided by statistical causal analyses, not to provide definitive estimates of P loss reduction. The enhanced meta‐analysis methods presented within are applicable for improved assessment of agricultural practices and their effects and can be used for providing realistic parameter values for watershed‐scale modeling.     

浙江省酸雨的空间分布格局及其未来变化趋势预测

利用浙江省1992、2002年的酸雨监测数据,并利用RAINS-ASIA模型模拟了1990-2030年浙江省酸雨前体物(SO2)的排放量,以及酸沉降超临界负荷面积占研究区域面积比例的变化情况.结果表明,浙江省的酸雨分布范围不断扩大、危害程度不断加重;未来一个时期内,SO2排放量都会维持在较高的水平;酸沉降超临界负荷面积所占比例在经历较快的增长阶段之后,会维持在较为恒定的水平,并呈现出明显的时滞性.     

降低FCC再生烟气NOx排放助剂的实验室评价

通过采用ACE装置与烟气NOx分析仪器联用的实验室评价方法,可在更接近实际催化裂化反应-再生过程的条件下,评价助剂对再生烟气中NOx的催化转化性能,同时还可考察助剂的加入对催化裂化产品分布的影响。采用该方法对几种降NOx助剂的性能进行了评价,结果表明,在催化剂体系中含有Pt基CO助燃剂的情况下,加入4％的RDNO;助剂后,烟气NOx降低幅度约30％～40％,且催化裂化产品分布基本不受影响。     

Suppression of precipitation by dust particles originated in the Tibetan Plateau

Dust aerosols play an important role in modulating the hydrologic cycle. The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is little polluted by human activities as an ideal site to study the effect of dust aerosol on precipitation. In this study, observational data of dust storms and precipitation in the TP and its vicinities as well as CALIPSO satellite data were used to analyze the distributions and vertical structure of dust storms on the plateau. The results showed that dust storms occur with high frequency and raise dust particles into the troposphere from ground level to a height of 5–9 km to modulate the hydrologic cycle in the TP. There are significant negative correlations between dust aerosol and precipitation in the dust source regions during the period of both 40 and 200 years. It is found that the role of precipitation in suppressing dust storms could be unimportant, while dust aerosol may play an important role in suppressing precipitation in the hinterland of the TP. Our study provides a potential approach to better understand the climate changes in the TP.     

China's grazed temperate grasslands are a net source of atmospheric methane

A budget for the methane (CH₄) cycle in the Xilin River basin of Inner Mongolia is presented. The annual CH₄ budget in this region depends primarily on the sum of atmospheric CH₄ uptake by upland soils, emission from small wetlands, and emission from grazing ruminants (sheep, goats, and cattle). Flux rates for these processes were averaged over multiple years with differing summer rainfall. Although uplands constitute the vast majority of land area, they consume much less CH₄ per unit area than is emitted by wetlands and ruminants. Atmospheric CH₄ uptake by upland soils was ?3.3 and ?4.8 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1 in grazed and ungrazed areas, respectively. Average CH₄ emission was 791.0 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1 from wetlands and 8.6 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1 from ruminants. The basin area-weighted average of all three processes was 6.8 kg CH₄ ha^?1 y^?1, indicating that ruminant production has converted this basin to a net source of atmospheric CH₄. The total CH₄ emission from the Xilin River basin was 7.29 Gg CH₄ y^?1. The current grazing intensity is about eightfold higher than that which would result in a net zero CH₄ flux. Since grazing intensity has increased throughout western China, it is likely that ruminant production has converted China's grazed temperate grasslands to a net source of atmospheric CH₄ overall.     

Hydrogeochemical Indicators of Groundwater Flow Systems in the Yangwu River Alluvial Fan,Xinzhou Basin,Shanxi, China

Based on analysis of groundwater hydrochemical and isotopic indicators, this article aims to identify the groundwater flow systems in the Yangwu River alluvial fan, in the Xinzhou Basin, China. Groundwater δ²H and δ¹⁸O values indicate that the origin of groundwater is mainly from precipitation, with local evaporative influence. d-excess values lower than 10% in most groundwaters suggest a cold climate during recharge in the area. Major ion chemistry, including rCa/rMg and rNa/rCl ratios, show that groundwater salinization is probably dominated by water–rock interaction (e.g., silicate mineral weathering, dissolution of calcite and dolomite and cation exchange) in the Yangwu River alluvial fan, and locally by intensive evapotranspiration in the Hutuo River valley. Cl and Sr concentrations follow an increasing trend in shallow groundwater affected by evaporation, and a decreasing trend in deep groundwater. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios reflect the variety of lithologies encountered during throughflow. The groundwater flow systems (GFS) of the Yangwu River alluvial fan include local and intermediate flow systems. Hydrogeochemical modeling results, simulated using PHREEQC, reveal water–rock interaction processes along different flow paths. This modeling method is more effective for characterizing flow paths in the intermediate system than in the local system. Artificial exploitation on groundwater in the alluvial fan enhances mixing between different groundwater flow systems.     

The Sustainable Development of ICTs in China： An Empirical Study of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

The wide application of new information and communication technologies （ICTs） has been argued to be critical to business success of small and medium-sized enterprises （SMEs）, especially to those in the developing countries. Drawing upon existing literature, this article will examine the determinants of ICTs application in SMEs in China based on data collected from interviews with top managers and/or owners of 70 SMEs. We identify 20 factors affecting ICTs application in SMEs in China and divide them into four broad categories, namely pressures, firm specific factors, technical factors and local milieu. We also pay special attention to the Chinese business environment affecting ICTs application. Our analysis shows that local ICT infrastructure, external pressures from competitors and ICT knowledge of employees are the determinants of Internet application by SMEs, while product characteristics and market target are important factors of e-commerce adoption.     

Polychlorinated biphenyls and organochlorine pesticides in various bird species from northern China

Little data are available on organochlorine contamination in Chinese terrestrial birds of prey. This study examined the presence of PCBs, DDTs and other organochlorine pesticides in various raptors from northern China. DDE exhibited the highest concentrations among targeted compounds. Greatest levels (23.5-1020 mg/kg lipid weight) were observed in Eurasian sparrowhawks. This may be due to their stopover in southeastern China, where high DDT and dicofol applications have been documented. Residential kestrels exhibited much lower DDE, but similar PCB and HCH concentrations. ΣTEQs and PCB-126/-77 concentration ratios exhibited significant positive correlations with ΣPCB concentrations, respectively. Similar results were also demonstrated by a meta-analysis of previously published data across avian species. Possible hepatic sequestration of coplanar PCB-77, -126, -169 and -118 was observed as liver TEQs increased in Eurasian sparrowhawks. These observations may indicate an induction of CYP1A enzymes, as a result of elevated contamination in some species.