Effects of Flow Augmentations in the Snake River Basin on Farms Profitability1

Abstract: For over 10 years, several species of salmon have been identified as either threatened or endangered in the Snake River Basin of Idaho. The United States Bureau of Reclamation, in cooperation with the National Marine Fisheries Service, has proposed a variety of plans to increase stream flows in the Snake River Basin to facilitate movement by juvenile salmon smolts to the ocean. This research examines two of the flow augmentation plans proposed by the Bureau of Reclamation as well as two alternative plans, one founded purely on existing priority‐based water rights and another geared toward minimizing the effects of flow augmentations on farms profitability. Results from a basin‐wide model of agricultural production in the Snake River Basin, the Snake River Agricultural Model, present evidence that (1) older water rights are used towards production of less valuable crops, (2) flow augmentation scenarios have unequal effects on farms profitability across agricultural regions within the basin, and (3) irrigation water is valued from US$4 to US$59 an acre‐foot.     

Modelling with uncertainty: Introducing a probabilistic framework to predict animal population dynamics

Predictive population models designed to assist managers and policy makers require an explicit treatment of inherent uncertainty and variability. These are particular concerns when modelling non-native and reintroduced species, when data have been collected within one geographical or ecological context but predictions are required for another, or when extending models to predict the consequences of environmental change (e.g., climate or land-use). We present an aspatial, probabilistic framework of hierarchical process models for predicting population growth even when data are sparse or of poor quality. Insight into the factors affecting population dynamics in real landscapes can be provided and Kullback–Leibler distances are used to compare the relative output of models. This flexible yet robust framework gives easily interpretable results, allowing managers as well as modellers to invalidate anomalous models and apply others to real-life scenarios.We illustrate the framework’s power with a meta-analysis of European wild boar (Sus scrofa) data. We test hypotheses about the effect of geographic region, hunting and mast years on wild boar population growth, to build models of wild boar dynamics for the UK. The framework quantifies the importance of hunting pressure as a driver of population growth, and confirms that reproductive success is greatly decreased in poor mast years, suggesting that the key to predicting wild boar dynamics is to ascertain local hunting pressure and to better understand changing food availability. Geography had no significant effect, indicating that it is not a good proxy for modelling the impact of change in climate or land-use on wild boar populations at the European scale. We use the framework to predict population abundance 9 years after an isolated population of wild boar established in the UK; in a comparison with the only field data and two independent modelling exercises, our framework provides the most robust and informative results.     

Land-cover change in upper Barataria Basin estuary,Louisiana, 1972-1992: increases in Wetland area

The Barataria Basin, Louisiana, USA, is an extensive wetland and coastal estuary system of great economic and intrinsic value. Although high rates of wetland loss along the coastal margin of the Barataria Basin have been well documented, little information exists on whether freshwater wetlands in the upper basin have changed. Our objectives were to quantify land-cover change in the upper basin over 20 years from 1972–1992 and to determine land-cover transition rates among land-cover types. Using 80-m resolution Landsat MSS data from the North American Landscape Characterization (NALC) data archive, we classified images from three time steps (1972, 1985, 1992) into six land-cover types: agriculture, urban, bottomland hardwood forest, swamp forest, freshwater marsh, and open water. Significant changes in land cover occurred within the upper Barataria Basin over the study period. Urban land increased from 8% to 17% of the total upper basin area, primarily due to conversions from agricultural land, and to a lesser degree, bottomland forest. Swamp forest increased from 30% to 41%, associated with conversions from bottomland hardwood forest and freshwater marsh. Overall, bottomland forest decreased 38% and total wetland area increased 21%. Within the upper Barataria, increases in total wetland area may be due to land subsidence. Based on our results, if present trends in the reduction of bottomland forest land cover were to continue, the upper Barataria Basin may have no bottomland hardwood forests left by the year 2025, as it is subjected to multiple stressors both in the higher elevations (from urbanization) and lower elevations (most likely from land subsidence). These results suggest that changes in the upper freshwater portions of coastal estuaries can be large and quite different from patterns observed in the more saline coastal margins.     

Field dissipation of acetochlor in two New Zealand soils at two application rates

The persistence of pesticides in soils has both economic and environmental significance and is often used as a key parameter in pesticide risk assessment. Persistence of acetochlor [2'-ethyl-6'-methyl-N-(ethoxymethyl)-2-chloroacetylanilide] in two New Zealand field soils was measured over two years and the data were used to identify models that adequately describe acetochlor persistence in the field. Acetochlor was sprayed onto six fallow plots (3 x 9 m each) at each site at the recommended rate (2.5 kg a.i. ha(-1)) and at twice that rate. Acetochlor concentrations were measured in soil cores. Simple first-order kinetics (Model 1) adequately described acetochlor persistence in Hamilton clay loam soil (Humic Hapludull, Illuvial Spadic) at the high application rate, but overestimated it at the low application rate. A quadratic model (Model 2), a first-order double-exponential model (Model 3), a first-order biphasic model (Model 4), or a two-compartment model (Model 5) better described acetochlor persistence at the low application rate. The time for 50% (DT50) and 90% (DT90) of initial acetochlor loss was approximately 9 and 56 d, and 18 and 63 d at low and high application rates, respectively. The more complex Models 2 through 5 also better described the biphasic dissipation of acetochlor in Horotiu sandy loam soil (Typic Orthic Allophanic) than Model 1, with Model 1 significantly underestimating acetochlor concentrations on the day of application at both application rates. The DT50 and DT90 values were 5 and 29 d and 7 and 31 d at low and high application rates, respectively. Overall, application rate significantly affected the DT50 and DT90 values in the Hamilton soil, but not in the Horotiu soil. Faster acetochlor loss in the Horotiu soil possibly resulted from the higher soil organic carbon content that retained more acetochlor near the soil surface where higher temperature and photolysis accelerated the loss.     

Evaluation of the Impacts of Dock Structures and Land Use on Tidal Creek Ecosystems in South Carolina Estuarine Environments

Tidal creeks and their associated salt marshes are the primary link between uplands and estuaries in the southeastern region. They are also critical nursery and feeding grounds. In addition, the uplands surrounding creeks are preferred sites for homebuilding because of their natural beauty and the ability to access the estuary from a personal dock structure. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cumulative impacts of docks on tidal creek nursery habitats for both small and large tidal creeks. The number of docks was associated with the amount of impervious cover in both small and large creeks. The presence of docks had little measurable effect on sediment metal concentrations at the scale of small and large creeks. In small and large creeks, sediment polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations were related to the human activity in the upland that includes the presence of docks at the scale of small and large creeks. Some impacts on the benthic community were associated with docks and human activity in small creeks but not in large creeks. Suburban development may reduce fish and crustacean abundances, but the dock may potentially mediate the development effect. Individually, the harm to the marine environment resulting from dock shading, chrominated copper arsenate leachates, and PAH contamination was small at the scale of tidal creeks. However, impacts from dock structures could not be separated from anthropogenic watershed-scale effects. These results demonstrate that suburban development with its accompanying dock construction does represent a major source of environmental degradation to tidal creeks and associated salt marsh habitats.     

A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: fuzzy cognitive maps and stakeholder group analysis in Uluabat Lake,Turkey

Fuzzy cognitive mapping was used to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan for Uluabat Lake, Turkey. Interviews were conducted with stakeholders belonging to six different groups. Lake pollution was the most central and most mentioned variable for stakeholders. Stakeholder groups agree that lake pollution is negatively affecting ecosystem health and thereby local economies. Thus, reducing lake pollution was chosen as the overall goal for the management plan. Possible ways to reduce lake pollution and increase ecosystem health were seen differently by the different groups. Hunters, factory managers, NGO personnel, and local people thought industry was the main cause of lake pollution, while officials from the government and local municipalities thought roads and urban development contributed the most to lake pollution. Generally the stakeholder groups did not perceive their own actions as affecting the lake as strongly as other groups thought. For example, factory managers viewed factory pollution as negatively affecting the lake but less strongly than the other groups did. According to policy option simulations, reducing lake pollution had positive effects on all variables, especially fish, birds, animal husbandry, irrigation, agriculture, and the ecological balance of the lake. Results of this analysis were used to facilitate meetings among stakeholder groups and to develop a participatory ecosystem management plan. The analysis was useful for pointing out the similarities as well as the differences among the groups. It also helped the facilitators understand the focus of each stakeholder group and enabled them to suggest activities in which each group would want to participate.     

Orientation and navigation in bats: known unknowns or unknown unknowns?

Bats have been extensively studied with regard to their ability to orient, navigate and hunt prey by means of echolocation, but almost nothing is known about how they orient and navigate in situations such as migration and homing outside the range of their echolocation system. As volant animals, bats face many of the same problems and challenges as birds. Migrating bats must relocate summer and winter home ranges over distances as far as 2,000 km. Foraging bats must be able to relocate their home roost if they range beyond a familiar area, and indeed circumstantial evidence suggests that these animals can home from more than 600 km. However, an extensive research program on homing and navigation in bats halted in the early 1970s. The field of bird navigation has advanced greatly since that time and many of the mechanisms that birds are known to use for navigation were not known or widely accepted at this time. In this paper I discuss what is known about orientation and navigation in bats and use bird navigation as a model for future research in bat navigation. Technology is advancing such that previous difficulties in studying orientation in bats in the field can be overcome and so that the mechanisms of navigation in this highly mobile animal can finally be elucidated.     

Assessing the economic impact of invasive species: the case of yellow starthistle (Centaurea solsitialis L.) in the rangelands of Idaho, USA

Yellow starthistle (Centaurea solsitialis L.) is an invasive weed that creates problems for the management of Idaho's rangelands. A bioeconomic approach combined with an input-output economic model is used to estimate direct and secondary economic costs of the weed in relation to its interference with agricultural and non-agricultural benefits that rangelands provide. Direct economic costs of the infestations were estimated to be of 8.2 million '05 dollars per year, and secondary costs of 4.5 million '05 dollars per year, for a total of 12.7 million '05 dollars; agricultural related economic impacts accounted for 79% of this total cost, and non-agricultural for 21%.     

The enemies within: intergenomic conflict, interlocus contest evolution (ICE), and the intraspecific Red Queen

Different loci within the genome of a single species can potentially coevolve in a manner that is analogous to the Red Queen process among species. The major factor driving this antagonistic coevolution among loci is intergenomic conflict, i.e., discord between individuals that is mediated by two or more gene products that are derived from different gene loci. We conclude that antagonistic coevolution is common among loci that code for social interactions, and that it has broad evolutionary implications, especially in the context of speciation and sex chromosome evolution. Received: 15 January 1997 / Accepted after revision: 14 April 1997     

Influence of predation on infaunal abundance in Upper Chesapeake Bay,USA

The importance of predators in controlling the densities of infaunal (>0.5 mm) organisms was investigated in the mesohaline region of the Upper Chesapeake Bay (USA) using field experiments. The role of predators in controlling infaunal density and community characteristics varied with habitat type, season (i.e., predator abundance) and developmental or successional stage of the community. Few infaunal species were adversely affected by predator exclusion. Species that increased greatly in abundance in the absence of predators (e.g. Eteone heteropoda, Streblospio benedicti, Nereis succinea, and juvenile Macoma balthica and Mya arenaria) lived near the sediment-water interface and had major population pulses from fall through spring. Species whose abundances increased moderately or were not affected by predator exclusion were deeper burrowing organisms (e.g. Heteromastus filiformis and adult Mya arenaria), or were relatively small organisms (e.g. Paraprionospio pinnata, Scolecolepides viridis and Peloscolex gabriellae) whose principal predators could be other members of the infauna. Competition did not appear to be an important factor controlling infaunal density in these experiments.This work is Contribution No. 973 of the Center for Environmental and Estuarine Studies of the University of Maryland