Environmental Information Systems in Malaria Risk Mapping and Epidemic Forecasting

Every year between one and two million African children under five die of malaria. If one adds to this the contribution of malaria to all-cause infant mortality then clearly the burden of the disease is catastrophic — a disaster quietly happening each and every year. New tools are needed urgently to support those currently available for control of the disease. An effective vaccine remains elusive. This article outlines the potential contribution to malaria control services of satellite information, which is being used by resource managers in other sectors. In particular, it highlights the lessons which can be learned from early warning systems in other areas, especially those designed to respond to famine. An appendix provides a brief introduction to satellite data and their interpretation.     

Maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein and fetal triploidy

Fetal triploidy is commonly found in early pregnancy. The majority of these pregnancies spontaneously abort in the first trimester. Occasionally, the pregnancy progresses to the second and third trimesters. We reviewed the maternal serum alpha-fetoprotein (MSAFP), amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), amniotic fluid acetylcholinesterase (ACHE), fetal pathology, and placental pathology in sex second-trimester pregnancies complicated by fetal triploidy. Four of these patients had MSAFP values greater than 7.5 multiples of the median (MoM). Five of six pregnancies had MSAFP values greater than 2.25 MoM. All five of these patients had a partial mole. Four patients had amniotic fluid AFP values greater than 2.0 MoM. Two fetuses had associated neural tube defects. These were the only patients with positive amniotic fluid ACHE. None of the other patients had fetuses with anomalies that are known to be associated with an elevated MSAFP. The elevated MSAFP appeared to be related to the presence of a partial mole. Two of the five cases with an MSAFP greater than 2.25 MoM did not have sonographic evidence of a significant anomaly. Therefore, karyotyping can be of benefit in evaluating patients with elevated MSAFP.     

Predicting extents of mercury oxidation in coal-derived flue gases

The proposed mercury (Hg) oxidation mechanism consists of a 168-step gas phase mechanism that accounts for interaction among all important flue gas species and a heterogeneous oxidation mechanism on unburned carbon (UBC) particles, similar to established chemistry for dioxin production under comparable conditions. The mechanism was incorporated into a gas cleaning system simulator to predict the proportions of elemental and oxidized Hg species in the flue gases, given relevant coal properties (C/H/O/N/S/Cl/Hg), flue gas composition (O2, H2O, HCl), emissions (NO(X), SO(X), CO), the recovery of fly ash, fly ash loss-on-ignition (LOI), and a thermal history. Predictions are validated without parameter adjustments against datasets from lab-scale and from pilot-scale coal furnaces at 1 and 29 MWt. Collectively, the evaluations cover 16 coals representing ranks from sub-bituminous through high-volatile bituminous, including cases with Cl2 and CaCl2 injection. The predictions are, therefore, validated over virtually the entire domain of Cl-species concentrations and UBC levels of commercial interest. Additional predictions identify the most important operating conditions in the furnace and gas cleaning system, including stoichiometric ratio, NO(X), LOI, and residence time, as well as the most important coal properties, including coal-Cl.     

The impact of wet flue gas desulfurization scrubbing on mercury emissions from coal-fired power stations

This article introduces a predictive capability for Hg retention in any Ca-based wet flue gas desulfurization (FGD) scrubber, given mercury (Hg) speciation at the FGD inlet, the flue gas composition, and the sulphur dioxide (SO2) capture efficiency. A preliminary statistical analysis of data from 17 full-scale wet FGDs connects flue gas compositions, the extents of Hg oxidation at FGD inlets, and Hg retention efficiencies. These connections clearly signal that solution chemistry within the FGD determines Hg retention. A more thorough analysis based on thermochemical equilibrium yields highly accurate predictions for total Hg retention with no parameter adjustments. For the most reliable data, the predictions were within measurement uncertainties for both limestone and Mg/lime systems operating in both forced and natural oxidation mode. With the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Information Collection Request (ICR) database, the quantitative performance was almost as good for the most modern FGDs, which probably conform to the very high SO2 absorption efficiencies assumed in the calculations. The large discrepancies for older FGDs are tentatively attributed to the unspecified SO2 capture efficiencies and operating temperatures and to the possible elimination of HCl in prescrubbers. The equilibrium calculations suggest that Hg retention is most sensitive to inlet HCl and O2 levels and the FGD temperature; weakly dependent on SO2 capture efficiency; and insensitive to HgCl2, NO, CA:S ratio, slurry dilution level in limestone FGDs, and MgSO3 levels in Mg/lime systems. Consequently, systems with prescrubbers to eliminate HCl probably retain less Hg than fully integrated FGDs. The analysis also predicts re-emission of Hg(O) but only for inlet O2 levels that are much lower than those in full-scale FGDs.     

Effect of soil layering on NAPL removal behavior in soil-heated vapor extraction

Soil heating has been proposed as a method to enhance the vapor extraction of NAPLs from contaminated soils. Three-dimensional fluid flow and heat transfer simulations have been performed for soil-heated vapor extraction to determine the transient system performance for a hypothetical configuration. Soil layering has been considered in evaluation of the initial non-aqueous phase liquid (NAPL) distribution and in evaporation and transport to the vapor extraction location. Results from this layered model are compared with results for a homogeneous system with an initially uniform NAPL, indicating the influence of layering, the initial NAPL distribution, the type of NAPL, and the possibility of enhanced vapor diffusion. Not only is the NAPL removal time reduced significantly with the addition of heat, but the uncertainty in the removal time owing to a number of difficult to characterize in situ factors, such as layering and the initial NAPL distribution, is much less than for standard soil vapor extraction without heating, owing to the rise in temperature and increase in NAPL vapor pressure with time.     

Heterogeneous response of central European streams to decreased acidic atmospheric deposition

We investigated the relations between mountain streamwater chemistry and atmospheric pollution in an arca of 1611 km2 of the Czech Republic by comparing concentrations of SO4. NO3, Cl, Ca and the pH at 432 localities at the time of high (1984-1986) and relatively low (1996-2000) acidic atmospheric deposition. Medians of Cl. SO4, and NO3 decreased by 17, 96 and 60 microeq l(-1), or by 23, 17 and 49%, respectively, during 12 +/- 2 years. The decreased Cl corresponds to decreased emission of industrial Cl (as HCl). The decreased stream SO4 was proportionally lower than the 71% decrease in S-emissions due to leaching of previously accumulated SO4 from soils and non-zero background concentrations. Decreases of NO3 up to 60% in streamwaters with pH < or = 6 was greater than the decrease of N emission in central Europe, about 35%. Extensive regional decrease of NO3 is surprising and is probably described for the first time. The difference in NO3 concentrations between the two periods was probably enhanced by (a) an increase of mineralisation of forest floor in the mid-1980s and (b) by higher uptake of N in the late-1990s. The median pH of the 432 streams did not change but the pH of the sub-population with pH < 6 in the mid-1980s recovered substantially. The pH of circum-neutral streams (pH > 6.5) decreased even as acidic atmospheric deposition decreased.     

Understanding the effectiveness of precursor reductions in lowering 8-hr ozone concentrations

Analyses of ambient measured ozone data were used in conjunction with the application of photochemical modeling to determine the technical feasibility of attaining the federal 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Various combinations of volatile organic compound (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) emission reductions were effective in lowering modeled peak 1-hr ozone concentrations. However, VOC emissions reductions were found to have only a modest impact on modeled peak 8-hr ozone concentrations. NOx emission reductions generally lowered 8-hr ozone concentrations, but their effectiveness was partially or, in some cases, wholly offset by the increase in the number of NO cycles and, hence, in the ozone produced per NO. As a result, substantial NOx emission reductions--70 to 90%--were required to reduce peak 8-hr ozone concentrations to the level of the standard throughout the modeling domain. These modeling results provide a possible physical explanation for recent analyses that have reported more prominent trends in peak 1-hr ozone levels than in peak 8-hr ozone concentrations or in occurrences of mid-level (60-90 parts per billion by volume) ozone concentrations. The findings also have serious implications for the feasibility of attaining the 8-hr ozone standard in central California. Further efforts are needed to clarify the applicability of the modeling results to the full set of days with ozone levels exceeding the 8-hr ozone standard, as well as their applicability to other geographical areas.     

Synthesis of effects in four Arctic subregions

An assessment of impacts on Arctic terrestrial ecosystems has emphasized geographical variability in responses of species and ecosystems to environmental change. This variability is usually associated with north-south gradients in climate, biodiversity, vegetation zones, and ecosystem structure and function. It is clear, however, that significant east-west variability in environment, ecosystem structure and function, environmental history, and recent climate variability is also important. Some areas have cooled while others have become warmer. Also, east-west differences between geographical barriers of oceans, archipelagos and mountains have contributed significantly in the past to the ability of species and vegetation zones to relocate in response to climate changes, and they have created the isolation necessary for genetic differentiation of populations and biodiversity hot-spots to occur. These barriers will also affect the ability of species to relocate during projected future warming. To include this east-west variability and also to strike a balance between overgeneralization and overspecialization, the ACIA identified four major sub regions based on large-scale differences in weather and climate-shaping factors. Drawing on information, mostly model output that can be related to the four ACIA subregions, it is evident that geographical barriers to species re-location, particularly the distribution of landmasses and separation by seas, will affect the northwards shift in vegetation zones. The geographical constraints--or facilitation--of northward movement of vegetation zones will affect the future storage and release of carbon, and the exchange of energy and water between biosphere and atmosphere. In addition, differences in the ability of vegetation zones to re-locate will affect the biodiversity associated with each zone while the number of species threatened by climate change varies greatly between subregions with a significant hot-spot in Beringia. Overall, the subregional synthesis demonstrates the difficulty of generalizing projections of responses of ecosystem structure and function, species loss, and biospheric feedbacks to the climate system for the whole Arctic region and implies a need for a far greater understanding of the spatial variability in the responses of terrestrial arctic ecosystems to climate change.     

Organic agriculture and ecosystem services

Ecosystem services (ES), such as biological control, pollination, soil formation, nutrient cycling in agriculture are vital for the sustainable supply of food and fibre. The current trends of decline in the ability of agricultural ecosystems to provide ES pose great threat to food security worldwide. This paper discusses the concept of ES and identifies ES associated with agriculture. It discusses the economic and ecological benefits of these ES on farmland in general and its linkages with organic agriculture. The provision of ES on farmland may help to motivate the redesign of small-scale farms using new eco-technologies based on novel and sound ecological knowledge. This has potential to meet the food demand of growing population without damaging human health and the environment.     

Does hedgerow management on organic farms benefit small mammal populations?

Organic farming is a whole-farm management approach believed to encourage biodiversity by excluding the input of agrochemicals and introducing specific management regimes for non-crop habitats. We examined the impact of the hedgerow management regime encouraged for organic farms on small mammal populations, since small mammal numbers influence a range of species at higher trophic levels and, in particular, are key to the conservation of a range of mammalian and avian predators. We compared differences in management and structure of non-crop habitats at the farm-scale between organic and conventional farms, and used within-farm variations in hedgerow size to predict the effect of hedgerow size on small mammals on both farm types. There were no significant differences in the proportion of non-crop habitats between organic and conventional farms, although management differences produced larger hedgerows on organic farms and greater diversity of hedgerow growth stages. However, a difference in hedgerow size between the farm types did not have a significant effect on small mammal abundance or diversity. We conclude that increased hedgerow size is not benefiting small mammal populations on organic farms: significant gains in small mammal numbers may be more effectively achieved by increasing the area of non-crop habitats rather than by improving management regimes.