Impact of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Sediment Yield in a Snow‐Dominated Semiarid Mountainous Watershed

This study investigates the impact of climate and land use change on the magnitude and timing of streamflow and sediment yield in a snow‐dominated mountainous watershed in Salt Lake County, Utah using a scenario approach and the Hydrological Simulation Program — FORTRAN model for the 2040s (year 2035–2044) and 2090s (year 2085–2094). The climate scenarios were statistically and dynamically downscaled from global climate models. Land use and land cover (LULC) changes were estimated in two ways — from a regional planning scenario and from a deterministic model. Results indicate the mean daily streamflow in the Jordan River watershed will increase by an amount ranging from 11.2% to 14.5% in the 2040s and from 6.8% to 15.3% in the 2090s. The respective increases in sediment load in the 2040s and 2090s is projected to be 6.7% and 39.7% in the canyons and about 7.4% to 14.2% in the Jordan valley. The historical 50th percentile timing of streamflow and sediment load is projected to be shifted earlier by three to four weeks by mid‐century and four to eight weeks by late‐century. The projected streamflow and sediment load results establish a nonlinear relationship with each other and are highly sensitive to projected climate change. The predicted changes in streamflow and sediment yield will have implications for water supply, flood control and stormwater management.     

Nitrogen and Phosphorus Removal in a Rain Garden Flooded with Wastewater and Simulated Stormwater

Rain gardens, also known as bioretention cells, are low‐impact developments designed to mitigate several problems associated with urban stormwater. This four‐month field study involved a rain garden at a wastewater treatment plant in north‐central Texas in the United States of America. Partially treated wastewater from an anaerobic digester spilled into the rain garden at the beginning of the study. Subsequently, inflow and outflow concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus were measured for nine simulated floods, preceded by dry‐spell intervals of 5, 8, or 12 days. Despite large inputs from the wastewater spill, the rain garden gradually processed and flushed the nitrogen. Longer dry spells tended to produce relatively higher outflow nitrate concentrations. A large pool of phosphorus in the soil restricted the rain garden's ability to reduce outflow orthophosphate concentrations, which were stable and lower than inflow concentrations throughout the study; however, adsorptive processes attenuated a relatively high inflow concentration by the end of the study.     

Plant facilitation of a belowground predator

Interest in facilitative predator plant interactions has focused upon above-ground systems. Underground physical conditions are distinctive, however, and we provide evidence that bush lupine, Lupinus arboreus, facilitates the survival of the predatory nematode Heterorhabditis marelatus. Because H. marelatus is prone to desiccation and lupines maintain a zone of moist soil around their taproots even during dry periods, we hypothesized that dry-season nematode survival under lupines might be higher than in the surrounding grasslands. We performed field surveys and measured nematode survival in lupine and grassland rhizospheres under wet- and dry-season conditions. Nematodes survived the crucial summer period better under lupines than in grasslands; however, this advantage disappeared in wet, winter soils. Modeling the probability of nematode population extinction showed that, while even large nematode cohorts were likely to go extinct in grasslands, even small cohorts in lupine rhizospheres were likely to survive until the arrival of the next prey generation. Because this nematode predator has a strong top-down effect on lupine survival via its effect on root-boring larvae of the ghost moth Hepialus californicus, this facilitative interaction may enable a belowground trophic cascade. Similar cases of predator facilitation in seasonally stressful environments are probably common in nature.     

Development and application of a Lagrangian model to determine the origins of ozone episodes in the UK

This paper describes the further development and application of the Edinburgh–Lancaster Model for Ozone (ELMO). We replace straight-line back-trajectories with trajectories and associated meteorology supplied by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) service to allow more realistic modelling of specific UK ozone episodes. We call this ELMO-2. Model performance is rigorously tested against observed ozone concentrations for two episodes recorded across 14 rural UK monitoring stations during the spring and summer of 1995. For both episodes, the afternoon concentrations (usually coinciding with the daily maxima) are captured well by the model and the diurnal ozone cycle is reproduced, although the amplitude in concentrations is generally smaller than the observed. The summer episode is investigated further through indicator species analysis and source attribution, and found to be mainly VOC-limited. European emissions account for the majority of ozone production. We demonstrate how improved modelling leads to better understanding of regional and local ozone production across the UK under episodic conditions.     

Grassland songbird survival and recruitment in agricultural landscapes: implications for source-sink demography

Population growth and decline are particularly sensitive to changes in three key life-history parameters: annual productivity, juvenile survival, and adult survival. However, for many species these parameters remain unknown. For example, although grassland songbirds are imperiled throughout North America, for this guild, only a small number of studies have assessed these parameters. From 2002 to 2006, in the agricultural landscape of the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, USA, we studied Savannah Sparrow (Passerculus sandwichensis) and Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) demography on four grassland treatments: (1) early-hayed fields cut before 11 June and again in early- to mid-July; (2) middle-hayed fields cut once between 21 June and 10 July; (3) late-hayed fields cut after 1 August; and (4) rotationally grazed pastures. We assessed whether these treatments affected adult apparent survival (phi) and recruitment (f), how sensitive these parameters were to the presence of nonbreeders and local dispersal, and the populations' ability to persist in these four habitats. On average, birds using late-hayed fields had > 25% higher apparent survival than those on the more intensively managed early-hayed, middle-hayed, and grazed fields. Overall male phi was 35% higher than female phi, and Savannah Sparrow phi was 44% higher than Bobolink phi. Across all analyses and treatments, apparent survival estimates were 0.58-0.85 for male and 0.48-0.71 for female Savannah Sparrows, and 0.52-0.70 for male and 0.19-0.55 for female Bobolinks. For males of both species, potential nonbreeders decreased the precision of and lowered apparent survival estimates by 25%; female estimates showed little variation with the inclusion of nonbreeders. Inclusion of local dispersal observations increased apparent survival estimates and, in many cases, increased precision, though the effect was stronger for Savannah Sparrows than for Bobolinks, and also stronger for males than for females. High Savannah Sparrow apparent survival rates resulted in stable or near stable populations (lambda approximately 1), particularly in late-hayed and grazed fields, while low Bobolink apparent survival rates resulted in strongly declining populations (lambda < 1) in all treatments.     

Grassland songbirds in a dynamic management landscape: behavioral responses and management strategies.

In recent decades, earlier and more frequent harvests of agricultural grasslands have been implicated as a major cause of population declines in grassland songbirds. From 2002 to 2005, in the Champlain Valley of Vermont and New York, USA, we studied the reproductive success of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) and Bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) on four grassland treatments: (1) early-hayed fields cut before 11 June and again in early- to mid-July; (2) middle-hayed fields cut once between 21 June and 10 July; (3) late-hayed fields cut after 1 August; and (4) rotationally grazed pastures. Both the number of fledglings per female per year and nest success (logistic-exposure method) varied among treatments and between species. Although birds initiated nests earlier on early-hayed fields compared to others, haying caused 99% of active Savannah Sparrow and 100% of active Bobolink nests to fail. Both the initial cutting date and time between cuttings influenced renesting behavior. After haying, Savannah Sparrows generally remained on early-hayed fields and immediately renested (clutch completion 15.6 +/- 1.28 days post-haying; all values are reported as mean +/- SE), while Bobolinks abandoned the fields for at least two weeks (mean clutch completion 33 +/- 0.82 days post-haying). While female Savannah Sparrows fledged more offspring per year (1.28 +/- 0.16) than female Bobolinks (0.05 +/- 0.05), reproductive success on early-hayed fields was low. The number of fledglings per female per year was greater on middle-hayed fields (Savannah Sparrows, 3.47 +/- 0.42; Bobolinks, 2.22 +/- 0.26), and late-hayed fields (Savannah Sparrows, 3.29 +/- 0.30; Bobolinks, 2.79 +/- 0.18). Reproductive success was moderate on rotationally grazed pastures, where female Savannah Sparrows and female Bobolinks produced 2.32 +/- 0.25 and 1.79 +/- 0.33 fledgling per year, respectively. We simultaneously conducted cutting surveys throughout the Champlain Valley and found that 3-8% of hayfield habitat was cut by 1-4 June, 25-40% by 12-16 June, and 32-60% by 28 June-2 July. Thus, the majority of grassland habitat was cut during the breeding season; however, late-hayed fields served as high-quality reserves for late-nesting female Bobolinks that were displaced from previously hayed fields. For fields first cut in May, a 65-day interval between cuts could provide enough time for both species to successfully fledge young.