Incorporating stakeholder decision support needs into an integrated regional Earth system model

A new modeling effort exploring the opportunities, constraints, and interactions between mitigation and adaptation at regional scale is utilizing stakeholder engagement in an innovative approach to guide model development and demonstration, including uncertainty characterization, to effectively inform regional decision making. This project, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), employs structured stakeholder interactions and literature reviews to identify the most relevant adaptation and mitigation alternatives and decision criteria for each regional application of the framework. The information is used to identify important model capabilities and to provide a focus for numerical experiments. This paper presents the stakeholder research results from the first iRESM pilot region. The pilot region includes the Great Lakes Basin in the Midwest portion of the United States as well as other contiguous states. This geographic area (14 states in total) permits cohesive modeling of hydrologic systems while also providing strong gradients in climate, demography, land cover/land use, and energy supply and demand. The results from the stakeholder research indicate that, for this region, iRESM should prioritize addressing adaptation alternatives in the water resources, urban infrastructure, and agriculture sectors, including water conservation, expanded water quality monitoring, altered reservoir releases, lowered water intakes, urban infrastructure upgrades, increased electric power reserves in urban areas, and land use management/crop selection changes. For mitigation in this region, the stakeholder research implies that iRESM should focus on policies affecting the penetration of renewable energy technologies, and the costs and effectiveness of energy efficiency, bioenergy production, wind energy, and carbon capture and sequestration.     

Does safety climate moderate the influence of staffing adequacy and work conditions on nurse injuries?

PROBLEM: Hospital nurses have one of the highest work-related injury rates in the United States. Yet, approaches to improving employee safety have generally focused on attempts to modify individual behavior through enforced compliance with safety rules and mandatory participation in safety training. We examined a theoretical model that investigated the impact on nurse injuries (back injuries and needlesticks) of critical structural variables (staffing adequacy, work engagement, and work conditions) and further tested whether safety climate moderated these effects. METHOD: A longitudinal, non-experimental, organizational study, conducted in 281 medical-surgical units in 143 general acute care hospitals in the United States. RESULTS: Work engagement and work conditions were positively related to safety climate, but not directly to nurse back injuries or needlesticks. Safety climate moderated the relationship between work engagement and needlesticks, while safety climate moderated the effect of work conditions on both needlesticks and back injuries, although in unexpected ways. DISCUSSION AND IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Our findings suggest that positive work engagement and work conditions contribute to enhanced safety climate and can reduce nurse injuries.     

The theory of planned behavior as mediator of the effect of parental supervision: a study of intentions to violate driving rules in a representative sample of adolescents

INTRODUCTION: The study reported here was designed to test the ability of the theory of planned behavior to mediate the effect of parental supervision on adolescents' intentions to violate driving rules. METHOD: A representative sample of 1,654 adolescents completed questionnaires during individual and anonymous interviews carried out at their schools. RESULTS: Results showed that age, gender, prior risky driving-behavior, and parental supervision significantly predict intentions to violate driving rules. Attitude and the subjective norm partially mediate the effect of age, prior behavior, and parental supervision. Perceived behavioral control does not predict intention and is not predicted by other variables. IMPACT: The results suggest that social cognitive variables partially mediate the effect of parenting practices such as supervision.     

Observed LATCH use and misuse characteristics of child restraint systems in seven states

INTRODUCTION: Although the LATCH System (Lower Anchors and Tethers for Children) holds the promise of simplifying the installation of a child restraint system (CRS) to the vehicle's seat, many drivers transporting young children have difficulties using this technology. This paper reports on an observation study of LATCH use and misuse. METHOD: Observations of approximately 1,000 children less than 5 years of age in CRSs, in the back seats of vehicles that were equipped with tether and lower anchors, in seven states. RESULTS: Tethers were used for 51% of the children when the forward-facing CRS had tether straps and the vehicle had tether anchors. Lower anchors were used for 58% of the children when the CRS had lower attachments and the vehicle had lower anchors. The most common tether and lower attachment misuses were loose tether straps (18% of cases) and loose lower attachment installation (30% of the cases), respectively. Vehicle safety belts were used in combination with lower attachments in 20% of all lower anchor installations. CONCLUSION: As more caregivers of young children drive vehicles equipped with LATCH, it will be important to promote the proper installation of CRSs using this technology. LATCH education messages must also emphasize that the lower anchors may not always be the safest choice for CRS attachment -- the safest attachment is the one that results in a tight fit and will be used correctly consistently.     

Implementation of Washington State's zero tolerance law: patterns of arrests, dispositions, and recidivism

OBJECTIVES: Zero tolerance (ZT) laws have been effective in reducing alcohol-related crashes among underage drivers. However, enforcement in some states has not been rigorous, and ZT offenses may not be viewed as serious offenses. On July 1, 1994, the state of Washington implemented a ZT law that allowed police to request a test for alcohol on suspicion of either a ZT or driving-under-the-influence (DUI) offense. The present study examined effects of the ZT law on arrests and case dispositions among underage offenders as a function of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) and post-law patterns of recidivism. METHODS: Times-series analyses examined the effects of the ZT law on trends in arrests of underage drivers between 1991 and 1999. Based on arrest records matched with driver's license records, the effects of the law on dispositions of alcohol-related offenses among underage drivers were examined, and rates of recidivism among underage offenders were examined for the period following the ZT law. RESULTS: There was a substantial increase in arrests of underage drivers beginning immediately after implementation of the ZT law, especially among drivers with low BACs. The types of court or administrative dispositions received by underage offenders changed markedly after the ZT law was implemented. Underage offenders with lower BACs became far more likely to receive alcohol-related convictions and/or license suspensions. However, the percentage of underage offenders with higher BACs receiving DUI convictions declined as some of these offenders received the lesser ZT disposition. After the ZT law, underage offenders with BACs of 0.10 g/dL or higher were more likely to recidivate than those with lower BACs, but appreciable proportions of drivers were re-arrested for another alcohol offense, whatever the BAC and however they were penalized. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of Washington's law indicates that a ZT law can increase the likelihood that an underage person will be sanctioned for drinking and driving. However, recidivism remains an issue as more than one in four underage drivers arrested with low BACs subsequently were re-arrested.     

A new THOR shoulder design: a comparison with volunteers, the Hybrid III, and THOR NT

OBJECTIVE: Since the shoulders are rarely seriously injured in frontal or oblique collisions, they have been given low priority in the development of frontal impact crash test dummies. The shoulder complex geometry and its kinematics are of vital importance for the overall dummy kinematics. The shoulder complex also influences the risk of the safety belt slipping off the shoulder in oblique forward collisions. The first aim of this study was to develop a new 50th percentile male THOR shoulder design, while the second was to compare the new shoulder, mounted on a THOR NT dummy, with volunteer, THOR NT, and Hybrid III range of motion and stiffness data. The third aim was to test the repeatability of the new shoulder during dynamic testing and to see how the design behaves with respect to belt slippage in a 45 degrees far-side collision. METHODS: The new 50th percentile THOR shoulder design was developed with the aid of a shell model of the seated University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute (UMTRI) 50th percentile male with coordinates for joints and bony landmarks (Schneider et al., 1983). The new shoulder design has human-like bony landmarks for the acromion and coracoid processes. The clavicle curvature and length are also made similar to that of a male human, as is the range of motion in the anterior-posterior, superior-inferior, and medial-lateral directions. The new shoulder design was manufactured and tested under the same conditions that T?rnvall et al. (2005b) used to compare the shoulder range of motion for the volunteers, Hybrid III, and THOR Alpha. The new design was also tested in two dynamic test configurations: the first was a 0 degrees full-frontal test and the second was a 45 degrees far-side test. The dummy tests were conducted with an R-16 seat with a three-point belt, the Delta V was 27.0+/-0.5 km/h and the maximum peak acceleration was approximately 14.6+/-0.5 g for each test. RESULTS: A new shoulder design with geometry close to that of humans was developed to be retrofitted to the THOR NT dummy. The results showed that the range of motion for the new shoulder complex during static loading was larger by at least a factor of three, for the maximum load (200 N/arm), than that of either the Hybrid III or the THOR NT; this means it was more similar to the volunteers' range of motion. It was observed that the THOR NT with the new shoulder did not slide out of the shoulder belt during a far-side collision. The performance of the new shoulder was reasonably repeatable and stable during both the static tests and the sled tests. CONCLUSION: A new shoulder for the THOR NT has been designed and developed, and data from static range of motion tests and sled tests indicate that the new shoulder complex has the potential to function in a more human-like manner on the THOR dummy.     

Preventing alcohol-related convictions: the effect of a novel curriculum for first-time offenders on DUI recidivism

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether DUI offenders can better avoid future drinking and driving by controlling their vehicle usage rather than by controlling their drinking. METHODS: Using a randomized experimental post-test only design, 9,571 first-time DUI offenders were randomly assigned to receive one of two 12-hour educational programs: a traditional DUI curriculum or the PARC (Preventing Alcohol-Related Convictions) curriculum, which uses a novel theoretical approach to preventing DUI recidivism. Whereas traditional programs focus on participants controlling their drinking to avoid future drinking and driving, the PARC curriculum focuses on participants controlling their driving. Instead of trying to control alcohol consumption after driving to a drinking venue (previously found to be a flawed strategy), PARC teaches students to make a decision before leaving home not to drive to a drinking event, thus greatly limiting the possibility of drinking and driving. Driving records were obtained from the Florida Department of Motor Vehicles using driver's license numbers to assess DUI recidivism rates among the students in the PARC and Traditional curricula for the first year following program participation and again at 2 years post-intervention. RESULTS: Binary logistic regression analyses revealed that offenders receiving the PARC curriculum exhibited significantly lower 1-year and 2-year recidivism rates than those receiving the Traditional curriculum. The effect was consistent across two different measures of recidivism, and across gender, race, ethnicity, and location. CONCLUSION: Results suggest that the PARC educational approach may be more effective than the traditional approach in reducing DUI recidivism.     

Nuptial coloration of red shiners (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cyprinella lutrensis</Emphasis>) is more intense in turbid habitats

Communication is shaped and constrained by the signaling environment. In aquatic habitats, turbidity can reduce both the quantity and quality of ambient light and has been implicated in the breakdown of visual signaling. Here, we examined the relationship between turbidity (quantified with long-term data) and the expression of carotenoid-based nuptial coloration in the red shiner (Cyprinella lutrensis), a small-bodied cyprinid. Males in more turbid habitats displayed redder fins, and an experimental manipulation of adult diet suggested that carotenoid intake alone did not explain among-population color differences. These results run counter to similar studies where signal expression decreased in turbid conditions, and may be explained by the non-territorial red shiner mating system, interactions between the mechanism of coloration and the signaling environment, or reduced cost of color expression in turbid habitats (e.g., reduced predation risk). Our results highlight how the behavioral and ecological contexts in which signals function can shape evolutionary responses to the environment.     

Heterospecific pairing and hybridization between <Emphasis Type="Italic">Nasutitermes corniger</Emphasis> and <Emphasis Type="Italic">N. ephratae</Emphasis>

The sympatric neotropical termites Nasutitermes corniger and Nasutitermes ephratae are clearly distinguishable based on morphology, nest architecture, defensive secretion composition, and molecular markers. However, given the extensive ecological, geographical, and behavioral overlap of these closely related species, the potential for interbreeding may exist. To explore this possibility, heterospecific pairs were formed experimentally to examine courtship and colony-establishment behaviors, and reproductive potential. Courtship and nest construction behavior occurred in heterospecific pairs in a similar manner to that of conspecific pairs. Survival of pairs depended upon the species of the female partner. N. ephratae females paired with N. corniger males produced as many offspring as conspecific pairs. N. corniger females mated to N. ephratae males, however, produced significantly fewer offspring at 60 days post-establishment than the reciprocal cross or conspecific N. ephratae or N. corniger pairs. This was also the only pairing in which any aggression was observed. Heterospecific pairs and groups formed in mate choice mesocosms, suggesting that species recognition between these two termites is not an important aspect of mate choice. Overall, species mismatch tolerance and hybrid offspring viability are high. The present data, together with previous evidence from defensive secretions and isozyme analysis, suggest that hybridization may periodically occur in nature, and that reproductive barriers between these two species may be incomplete. Hybridization could provide a rare but important source of genetic diversity and may ensure mating opportunities for the more abundant sex of alates in each species.