The buffer value of groundwater with stochastic surface water supplies

When utilized with a stochastic source of surface water for irrigation, groundwater may serve to mitigate fluctuations in the supply of water. The benefit corresponding to this service is the buffer value of groundwater. We show that the buffer value is positive. Numerical studies reveal that its magnitude can be significant. The paper also offers a characterization of groundwater extraction in such a setting.     

Compensation for “Meaningful Participation” in Climate Change Control: A Modest Proposal and Empirical Analysis

The debate over an international climate change regime has thus far focused primarily on efficiency concerns in developed countries. This paper suggests a means by which equity concerns may be addressed in the ongoing negotiations. A system of transfers is developed that is motivated by the difference between the damage caused by a country and the damage suffered by that country as a result of climate change. Illustrative calculations of the magnitude and direction of these transfers are made. We find that in general transfers flow from temperate to tropical countries but that the degree of uncertainty associated with these calculations is very large.     

Modeling field-scale multiple tracer injection at a low-level waste disposal site in fractured rocks: effect of multiscale heterogeneity and source term uncertainty on conceptual understanding of mass transfer processes

Multiple factors may affect the scale-up of laboratory multi-tracer injection into structured porous media to the field. Under transient flow conditions and with multiscale heterogeneities in the field, previous attempts to scale-up laboratory experiments have not answered definitely the questions about the governing mechanisms and the spatial extent of the influence of small-scale mass transfer processes such as matrix diffusion. The objective of this research is to investigate the effects of multiscale heterogeneity, mechanistic and site model conceptualization, and source term density effect on elucidating and interpreting tracer movement in the field. Tracer release and monitoring information previously obtained in a field campaign of multiple, conservative tracer injection under natural hydraulic gradients at a low-level waste disposal site in eastern Tennessee, United States, is used for the research. A suite of two-pore-domain, or fracture-matrix, groundwater flow and transport models are calibrated and used to conduct model parameter and prediction uncertainty analyses. These efforts are facilitated by a novel nested Latin-hypercube sampling technique. Our results verify, at field scale, a multiple-pore-domain, multiscale mechanistic conceptual model that was used previously to interpret only laboratory observations. The results also suggest that, integrated over the entire field site, mass flux rates attributable to small-scale mass transfer are comparable to that of field-scale solute transport. The uncertainty analyses show that fracture spacing is the most important model parameter and model prediction uncertainty is relatively higher at the interface between the preferred flow path and its parent bedrock. The comparisons of site conceptual models indicate that the effect of matrix diffusion may be confined to the immediate neighborhood of the preferential flow path. Finally, because the relatively large amount of tracer needed for field studies, it is likely that source term density effect may exaggerate or obscure the effect of matrix diffusion on the movement of tracers from the preferred flow path into the bedrock.     

Reduced Soil Macropores and Forest Cover Reduce Warm‐Season Baseflow below Ecological Thresholds in the Upper Delaware River Basin

We examined the impacts of changes in land cover and soil conditions on the flow regime of the upper Delaware River Basin using the Water Availability Tool for Environmental Resources. We simulated flows for two periods, c. 1600 and 1940, at three sites using the same temperature and precipitation conditions: the East Branch, West Branch, and mainstem Delaware River at Callicoon, New York. The 1600 period represented pristine forest and soils. The 1940 period included reduced forest cover, increased agriculture, and degraded soils with reduced soil macropore fractions. A model‐sensitivity test examined the impact of soil macropore and land cover change separately. We assessed changes in flow regimes between the 1600 and 1940 periods using a variety of flow statistics, including established ecological limits of hydrologic alteration (ELOHA) thresholds. Reduced forest soil macropore fraction significantly reduced summer and fall baseflows. The 1940 period had significantly lower Q50 flows (50% exceedance) than the 1600 period, as well as summer and fall Q90 and Q75–Q90 flows below the ELOHA thresholds. The one‐ to seven‐day minimum flows were also lower for the 1940 period, by 17% on the mainstem. 1940 flows were 6% more likely than the 1600 period to fall below the low‐flow threshold for federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel (Alasmidonta heterodon) habitat. In contrast, the 1940 period had higher flows than the 1600 period from late fall to early winter.     

Effect of Bag Failure on Baghouse Outlet Loading

One of the most important considerations in baghouse operation is the effect of bag failure on outlet loading. This information would be Of use to equipment manufacturers, users, and regulatory officials. Unfortunately, little information is available in the literature on this aspect of baghouse performance. Equations describing changes in outlet loading resulting from the sudden rupture of one or more bags are developed from first principles. Calculated results from these equations are presented in the form of a chart which can very quickly and simply be used to obtain a numerical value for a revised outlet loading resulting from bag failure(s) for a variety of system conditions. Due to an assumption made in the derivation, the new outlet loading thus obtained represents the maximum increase (worst case conditions) to be expected from the rupture of one or more bags. The following variables are included in the analysis: inlet loading, outlet loading (prior to bag failure), number of bag failures, bag diameter, system pressure drop; and gas temperature.     

Application of OMI observations to a space-based indicator of NOx and VOC controls on surface ozone formation

We investigated variations in the relative sensitivity of surface ozone formation in summer to precursor species concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) as inferred from the ratio of the tropospheric columns of formaldehyde to nitrogen dioxide (the “Ratio”) from the Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). Our modeling study suggests that ozone formation decreases with reductions in VOCs at Ratios <1 and NO_x at Ratios >2; both NO_x and VOC reductions may decrease ozone formation for Ratios between 1 and 2. Using this criteria, the OMI data indicate that ozone formation became: 1. more sensitive to NO_x over most of the United States from 2005 to 2007 because of the substantial decrease in NO_x emissions, primarily from stationary sources, and the concomitant decrease in the tropospheric column of NO₂, and 2. more sensitive to NO_x with increasing temperature, in part because emissions of highly reactive, biogenic isoprene increase with temperature, thus increasing the total VOC reactivity. In cities with relatively low isoprene emissions (e.g., Chicago), the data clearly indicate that ozone formation became more sensitive to NO_x from 2005 to 2007. In cities with relatively high isoprene emissions (e.g., Atlanta), we found that the increase in the Ratio due to decreasing NO_x emissions was not obvious as this signal was convolved with variations in the Ratio associated with the temperature dependence of isoprene emissions and, consequently, the formaldehyde concentration.     

Circulation and Stream Plume Modeling in Conesus Lake

A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model that includes the effect of drag from macrophytes was applied to Conesus Lake to study the seasonal circulation and thermal structure during spring and early summer. Local weather conditions and stream flow data were used to drive the model. The drag coefficient for macrophytes was calculated as a function of leaf density. In general, the model results show good agreements with the observations, including vertical temperature profiles measured at two locations and average surface temperature derived from calibrated thermal imagery for large-scale simulations of the entire lake. Additional high-resolution simulations were carried out to understand water circulation and transport of sediment and model-generated tracer during hydrometeorological events at stream mouths for two experimental sites. The model results show that the plume development at stream mouths during storm events in Conesus Lake are site-dependent and may either be current- or wind-driven. The results also show a significant effect from the presence of macrophytes on sediment deposition near stream mouths.     

Weighting Nitrogen and Phosphorus Pixel Pollutant Loads to Represent Runoff and Buffering Likelihoods

Watershed models often estimate annual nitrogen (N) or phosphorus (P) pollutant loads in rural areas with export coefficient (EC) (kg/ha/yr) values based on land cover, and in urban areas as the product of spatially uniform event mean concentration (EMC) (mg/L) values and runoff volume. Actual N and P nonpoint source (NPS) pollutant loading has more spatial complexity due to watershed variation in runoff likelihood and buffering likelihood along surface and subsurface pathways, which can be represented in a contributing area dispersal area (CADA) NPS model. This research develops a CADA NPS model to simulate how watershed properties of elevation, land cover, and soils upslope and downslope of each watershed pixel influence nutrient loading. The model uses both surface and subsurface runoff indices (RI), and surface and subsurface buffer indices (BI), to quantify the runoff and buffering likelihood for each watershed pixel, and generate maps of weighted EC and EMC values that identify NPS pollutant loading hotspots. The research illustrates how CADA NPS model maps and pixel loading values are sensitive to the spatial resolution and accuracy of elevation and land cover data, and model predictions can represent the lower and upper bounds of NPS loading. The model provides managers with a tool to rapidly visualize, rank, and investigate likely areas of high nutrient export.