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781.
Uncertainty analysis in LCA studies has been subject to major progress over the last years. In the context of waste management, various methods have been implemented but a systematic method for uncertainty analysis of waste-LCA studies is lacking. The objective of this paper is (1) to present the sources of uncertainty specifically inherent to waste-LCA studies, (2) to select and apply several methods for uncertainty analysis and (3) to develop a general framework for quantitative uncertainty assessment of LCA of waste management systems. The suggested method is a sequence of four steps combining the selected methods: (Step 1) a sensitivity analysis evaluating the sensitivities of the results with respect to the input uncertainties, (Step 2) an uncertainty propagation providing appropriate tools for representing uncertainties and calculating the overall uncertainty of the model results, (Step 3) an uncertainty contribution analysis quantifying the contribution of each parameter uncertainty to the final uncertainty and (Step 4) as a new approach, a combined sensitivity analysis providing a visualisation of the shift in the ranking of different options due to variations of selected key parameters. This tiered approach optimises the resources available to LCA practitioners by only propagating the most influential uncertainties.  相似文献   
782.
Pesticide contaminated wastewater resulting from leftover mixes, equipment cleaning, and container disposal are problems related to pesticide use. This study reports on the effectiveness of a soil‐based bioreactor (SBBR) to dissipate pesticides of differing concentrations and mixtures. In order to accomplish this study, soil columns were used to simulate the SBBR. A mixture of five herbicides and two insecticides from seven different chemical families (atrazine, dicamba, fluometuron, metolachlor, sulfentrazone, chlopyrifus, and λ‐cyhalothrin) were added to the SBBR‐simulated system as formulated products in three concentrations each: 0 part per million (control), 10 ppm, and 100 ppm. Additionally a 1,000 ppm treatment was added that included just the five herbicides to investigate how the system would respond to heavy loading. The system was run for 90 days with samples taken at day 4 (just prior to loading the columns), then at 30, 60, and 90 days. At low pesticide concentrations (10 and 100 ppm), there was significant dissipation (p < 0.05) of all pesticides in the columns except sulfentrazone. At 1,000 ppm, fluometuron, in addition to sulfentrazone, did not show significant dissipation. Overall, the system performed as expected and could be considered practical for use on farms or nurseries. ©2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.  相似文献   
783.
Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising flood risk management strategies under climate change. First, uncertainty about the changes in return periods of hydro-meteorological extremes is introduced by probability-weighted climate scenarios. Second, the analysis is extended by learning about climate change impacts. Learning occurs upon the probabilistic arrival of information. We distinguish between learning from scientific progress, from statistical evidence and from flood disasters. These probabilistic extensions can be used to analyse and compare the economic efficiency and flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. We offer a critical discussion of the scope of such extensions and options for increasing flexibility. We find that uncertainty reduction from scientific progress may reduce initial investments, while other types of learning may increase initial investments. This requires analysing effects of different types of learning. We also find that probabilistic information about climate change impacts and learning is imprecise. We conclude that risk-based CBA with learning improves the flexibility of flood risk management strategies under climate change. However, CBA provides subjective estimates of expected outcomes and reflects different decision-maker preferences than those captured in robustness analyses. We therefore advocate robustness analysis in addition to, or combined with, cost-benefit analysis to support local investment decisions on flood risk reduction and global strategies on allocation of adaptation funds for flood risk management.  相似文献   
784.
785.
Water utilities must assess risks and make decisions on safety measures in order to obtain a safe and sustainable drinking water supply. The World Health Organization emphasises preparation of water safety plans, in which risk ranking by means of risk matrices with discretised probability and consequence scales is commonly used. Risk ranking enables prioritisation of risks, but there is currently no common and structured way of performing uncertainty analysis and using risk ranking for evaluating and comparing water safety measures. To enable a proper prioritisation of safety measures and an efficient use of available resources for risk reduction, two alternative models linking risk ranking and multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are presented and evaluated. The two models specifically enable uncertainty modelling in MCDA, and they differ in terms of how uncertainties in risk levels are considered. The need of formal handling of risk and uncertainty in MCDA is emphasised in the literature, and the suggested models provide innovations that are not dependent on the application domain. In the case study application presented here, possible safety measures are evaluated based on the benefit of estimated risk reduction, the cost of implementation and the probability of not achieving an acceptable risk level. Additional criteria such as environmental impact and consumer trust may also be included when applying the models. The case study shows how safety measures can be ranked based on preference scores or cost-effectiveness and how measures not reducing the risk enough can be identified and disqualified. Furthermore, the probability of each safety measure being ranked highest can be calculated. The two models provide a stepwise procedure for prioritising safety measures and enable a formalised handling of uncertainties in input data and results.  相似文献   
786.
Despite an increased understanding of marine invasions, non-indigenous species (NIS) continue to be redistributed at both global and regional scales. Since prevention is an important element of NIS programs, monitoring vectors responsible for NIS introductions and spread, such as hull fouling, has become a priority and methods should be selected carefully to balance accuracy, time, and cost. Two common fouling assessment tools for the marine recreational boating vector were evaluated for accuracy using a traditional underwater SCUBA survey in coastal British Columbia: a dockside level of fouling assessment and a behavioral questionnaire model. Results showed that although rapid, dockside assessments did not provide an accurate assessment of fouling present below the surface, at least not in this region. In contrast, a questionnaire-based model using four easily obtained variables (boat type, age of antifouling paint, storage type, and occurrence of long distance trips) reliably identified boats carrying macrofouling species, a proxy for risk of NIS transport. Once validated, this fouling model tool could be applied in border inspection or quarantine situations where decisions must be made quickly. Further development and refinement of rapid assessment tools would improve our ability to prevent new introductions and manage spread of existing invasive species.  相似文献   
787.
Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.  相似文献   
788.
Light,timing of biological rhythms,and chronodisruption in man   总被引:3,自引:2,他引:3  
This paper reviews abundant evidence suggesting that causes and course of aging and cancers can be considered as being both light- and rhythm-related. We define chronodisruption as a relevant disturbance of orderly biological rhythms over days and seasons and years in man. Light is the primary external mediator and melatonin a primary internal intermediary of such disturbances, which can result in earlier deaths via premature aging and cancers. We conclude that experimental and epidemiological research can provide further insights into common denominators of these chronic processes and may offer novel and uniform targets for prevention.  相似文献   
789.
Interpreting the functional content of a given genomic sequence is one of the central challenges of biology today. Perhaps the most promising approach to this problem is based on the comparative method of classic biology in the modern guise of sequence comparison. For instance, protein-coding regions tend to be conserved between species. Hence, a simple method for distinguishing a functional exon from the chance absence of stop codons is to investigate its homologue from closely related species. Predicting regulatory elements is even more difficult than exon prediction, but again, comparisons pinpointing conserved sequence motifs upstream of translation start sites are helping to unravel gene regulatory networks. In addition to interspecific studies, intraspecific sequence comparison yields insights into the evolutionary forces that have acted on a species in the past. Of particular interest here is the identification of selection events such as selective sweeps. Both intra- and interspecific sequence comparisons are based on a variety of computational methods, including alignment, phylogenetic reconstruction, and coalescent theory. This article surveys the biology and the central computational ideas applied in recent comparative genomics projects. We argue that the most fruitful method of understanding the functional content of genomes is to study them in the context of related genomic sequences. In particular, such a study may reveal selection, a fundamental pointer to biological relevance.  相似文献   
790.
This paper shows the results of our investigations on the ignition source ultrasound in dust-air atmospheres. Ultrasound is, on the one hand, considered to be an ignition source according to international safety standards (EN 1127–1 (2011)). On the other hand, though, ultrasound is used for various applications in gases and air, such as level and flow measurement, or in the process industry, but no explosion accidents have yet been reported. Our research now shows that it is indeed possible to ignite dust-air mixtures in ultrasound fields under certain conditions. We conducted our experiments in an ultrasound standing wave field and used maize starch, calcium stearate and sulfur dust. For ignitions, an absorbing target was needed to convert the acoustic energy into heat. From theoretical estimations and experiments critical conditions that provoke ultrasonically triggered explosions are identified.  相似文献   
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