Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

美国和五大湖双边共同关注区域的白肚燕(双色树燕)雏鸟的有机污染状况

白肚燕,又名双色树燕,栖居于五大湖流域中27个双边共同关注区域(AOCs),从2010年到2014年对其进行了污染物暴露风险评估,以协助管理者和监管者评估五大湖AOCs的污染状况。本文比较了AOCs和附近非AOCs雏鸟体内污染物浓度的差异。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟尸体中多氯联苯(PCB)和多溴联苯醚的含量分别为30%和33%,低于非AOCs的平均浓度。AOCs白肚燕雏鸟胃含物中多环芳烃(PAH)浓度和血浆中全氟化合物浓度分别为67%和64%,也低于非AOCs的平均浓度。但是与已有生殖效应记载的高PCB污染区相比,有些AOCs雏鸟尸体内的PCBs浓度只是存在小幅升高。一些AOCs食物中PAHs的浓度足够高以致引起可测量的生理响应。在AOCs中,全氟化合物全氟辛烷磺酸在血浆中的最高浓度出现在Raisin河(密歇根州,美国;几何平均数330 ng/mL),但远低于预估毒性的参考值(1 700 ng/mL)。之前有研究报道雏鸟胃含物中PAH和PCB的浓度以及尸体中PCBs的含量与沉积物中污染物的含量显著相关,从而可加强白肚燕在评估沉积物污染生物有效性方面的应用。
精选自Thomas W. Custer, Christine M. Custer, Paul M. Dummer, Diana Goldberg, J. Christian Franson, Richard A. Erickson. Organic contamination in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings at United States and binational Great Lakes areas of concern. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Volume 36, Issue 3, pages 735–748, July 2017. DOI: 10.1002/etc.3598
详情请见http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1002/etc.3598/full
     

Patterns,correlates, and paternity consequences of extraterritorial foray behavior in the field sparrow (Spizella pusilla): an automated telemetry approach

Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology - ᅟMales of fiddler crabs (genus: Uca) construct courtship structures using mud or sand to attract mate-searching females for underground mating. A sensory...     

Comparing canopy leaf temperature of three Central European tree species based on simultaneous confidence bands for penalized splines

Temperature is an important physical factor that is known to strongly affect biodiversity as well as ecosystems and their functioning. However, research in this area is still relatively limited; this may also be attributed to the multitude of influencing factors and the complexity of the statistics involved. This study analyzes the differences between the surface temperature of three Central European broadleaf tree species. A better understanding of these differences may help to elucidate the role of microclimate in biodiversity. We consider a time series of high-resolution thermal images taken from a meteorological observation tower and calculate mean canopy leaf temperatures for beech, ash and maple (Fagus silvatica, Fraxinus excelsior and Acer pseudoplatanus). In a first step, comparable image areas are extracted from the thermal image sections of the crown of each tree species avoiding shadow areas, branches, etc. We used an automatic segmentation technique, the Otsu thresholding. Extracted canopy leaf temperature values were then processed and the resulting temperature profiles estimated by O’Sullivan penalized splines. For comparing the differences in canopy leaf temperature over time, we propose the construction of simultaneous confidence bands. The analyses show that there are significant—though small—differences in canopy surface temperature between the three tree species.     

Green Toxicology: a strategy for sustainable chemical and material development

Green Toxicology refers to the application of predictive toxicology in the sustainable development and production of new less harmful materials and chemicals, subsequently reducing waste and exposure. Built upon the foundation of “Green Chemistry” and “Green Engineering”, “Green Toxicology” aims to shape future manufacturing processes and safe synthesis of chemicals in terms of environmental and human health impacts. Being an integral part of Green Chemistry, the principles of Green Toxicology amplify the role of health-related aspects for the benefit of consumers and the environment, in addition to being economical for manufacturing companies. Due to the costly development and preparation of new materials and chemicals for market entry, it is no longer practical to ignore the safety and environmental status of new products during product development stages. However, this is only possible if toxicologists and chemists work together early on in the development of materials and chemicals to utilize safe design strategies and innovative in vitro and in silico tools. This paper discusses some of the most relevant aspects, advances and limitations of the emergence of Green Toxicology from the perspective of different industry and research groups. The integration of new testing methods and strategies in product development, testing and regulation stages are presented with examples of the application of in silico, omics and in vitro methods. Other tools for Green Toxicology, including the reduction of animal testing, alternative test methods, and read-across approaches are also discussed.     

Systematic evaluation of dissolved lead sorption losses to particulate syringe filter materials

Distinguishing between soluble and particulate lead in drinking water is useful in understanding the mechanism of lead release and identifying remedial action. Typically, particulate lead is defined as the amount of lead removed by a 0.45-μm filter. Unfortunately, there is little guidance regarding selection of filter membrane material and little consideration to the possibility of the sorption of dissolved lead to the filter. The objective of this work was to examine the tendency of 0.45-μm syringe filter materials to adsorb lead. Tests were performed with water containing 40 and 24 μg/L soluble lead at pH 7 buffered with 50 mg C/L dissolved inorganic concentration (DIC). The amounts of lead sorbed greatly varied by filter, and only two filter types, polypropylene and mixed cellulose esters, performed well and are recommended. Great care must be taken in choosing a filter when filtering soluble lead and interpreting filter results.     

Persistence and effect of processing on reduction of chlorantraniliprole residues on brinjal and okra fruits

Dissipation and decontamination of chlorantraniliprole (Coragen 18.5 SC) in brinjal and okra fruits were studied following field application at single and double doses of 30 and 60 g ai ha^?1, and the residues of the insecticide was estimated using LC-MS/MS. Initial residues of chlorantraniliprole at single and double doses on the fruits of brinjal were 0.72 and 1.48 mg kg^?1, while on okra fruits, the residues were 0.48 and 0.91 mg kg^?1, respectively. The residues reached below detectable level of 0.01 mg kg^?1 on the 10th day. Half-life of chlorantraniliprole at 30 and 60 g ai ha^?1 on brinjal was 1.58 and 1.80 days with the calculated waiting period of 0.69 and 2.38 days, whereas on okra, the values were 1.60 and 1.70 and 0 and 1.20 days, respectively. The extent of removal of chlorantraniliprole using simple decontaminating techniques at 2 h and 3 days after spraying was 40.99–91.37 % and 29.85–89.12 %, respectively, from brinjal fruits and 47.78–86.10 % and 41.77–86.48 %, respectively, from okra fruits.     

Methods for project-based mechanisms (JI/CDM)—relevance of IPCC inventory guidelines

A baseline for a project consists of estimates of annual emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) for a given time period without implementing the project. A general three-step process for determining the baseline is suggested. The emission reduction of the project is given by the difference between the baseline and the monitored annual emissions. A preferred method, direct measurement of the emission reduction, is possible for some types of projects. Methods for estimating the annual baseline emissions are not necessary for the latter category, and a definition of this project category is suggested. IPCC Guidelines for National GHG Inventories categorise the emission sources so that only direct emissions from consumption of fuel and feedstock are calculated. There are thus no emission factors for indirect emissions (e.g. electricity consumption or km transported) or emission factors that depend on technology only, independent of consumption of fuel and feedstock. Technology-dependent emission factors may thus need to be developed for estimating indirect emissions and multi-project baselines. Consistency should be sought with the IPCC Guidelines when estimating annual baseline emissions and in monitoring project emissions to ensure comparability with the National Inventories.     

Prenatal diagnosis of congenital nephrosis by in utero kidney biopsy

The diagnosis of congenital nephrosis is difficult during the antepartum period. The combination of an elevated amniotic fluid alpha-fetoprotein, a negative acetylcholinesterase, and a negative ultrasound examination is highly indicative of congenital nephrosis; however, these findings can also be associated with a normal gestation. This is the first report of pathologic confirmation of congenital nephrosis from an in utero fetal kidney biopsy. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A pilot project to detect and forecast harmful algal blooms in the northern Gulf of Mexico

More timely access to data and information on the initiation, evolution and effects of harmful algal blooms can reduce adverse impacts on valued natural resources and human health. To achieve this in the northern Gulf of Mexico, a pilot project was initiated to develop a user-driven, end-to-end (measurements to applications) observing system. A key strategy of the project is to coordinate existing state, federal and academic programs at an unprecedented level of collaboration and partnership. Resource managers charged with protection of public health and aquatic resources require immediate notice of algal events and a forecast of when, where and what adverse effects will likely occur. Further, managers require integrated analyses and interpretations, rather than raw data, to make effective decisions. Consequently, a functional observing system must collect and transform diverse measurements into usable forecasts. Data needed to support development of forecasts will include such properties as sea surface temperature, winds, currents and waves; precipitation and freshwater flows with related discharges of sediment and nutrients; salinity, dissolved oxygen, and chlorophyll concentrations (in vivo fluorescence); and remotely-sensed spatial images of sea surface chlorophyll concentrations. These data will be provided via a mixture of discrete and autonomous in situ sensing with near real-time data telemetry, and remote sensing from space (SeaWiFS), aircraft (hyperspectral imagery) or land (high-frequency radar). With calibration across these platforms, the project will ultimately provide a 4-dimensional visualization of harmful algae events in a time frame suitable to resource managers.