Human reliability analysis: A critique and review for managers

In running our increasingly complex business systems, formal risk analyses and risk management techniques are becoming more important part to managers: all managers, not just those charged with risk management. It is also becoming apparent that human behaviour is often a root or significant contributing cause of system failure. This latter observation is not novel; for more than 30 years it has been recognised that the role of human operations in safety critical systems is so important that they should be explicitly modelled as part of the risk assessment of plant operations. This has led to the development of a range of methods under the general heading of human reliability analysis (HRA) to account for the effects of human error in risk and reliability analysis. The modelling approaches used in HRA, however, tend to be focussed on easily describable sequential, generally low-level tasks, which are not the main source of systemic errors. Moreover, they focus on errors rather than the effects of all forms of human behaviour. In this paper we review and discuss HRA methodologies, arguing that there is a need for considerable further research and development before they meet the needs of modern risk and reliability analyses and are able to provide managers with the guidance they need to manage complex systems safely. We provide some suggestions for how work in this area should develop. But above all we seek to make the management community fully aware of assumptions implicit in human reliability analysis and its limitations.     

A Bayesian approach to line-transect analysis for estimating abundance

Line-transect analysis is a widely used method of estimating plant and animal density and abundance. A Bayesian approach to a basic line-transect analysis is developed for a half-normal detection function. We extend the model of Karunamuni and Quinn [Karunamuni, R.J., Quinn II, T.J., 1995. Bayesian estimation of animal abundance for line-transect sampling. Biometrics 51, 1325–1337] by including a binomial likelihood function for the number of objects detected. The method computes a joint posterior distribution on the effective strip width and the density of objects in the sampled area. Analytical and computational methods for binned and unbinned perpendicular distance data are provided. Existing information about effective strip width and density can be brought into the analysis via prior distributions. The Bayesian approach is compared to a standard line-transect analysis using both real and simulated data. Results of the Bayesian and non-Bayesian analyses are similar when there are no prior data on effective strip width or density, but the Bayesian approach performs better when such data are available from previous or related studies. Practical methods for including prior data on effective strip width and density are suggested. A numerical example shows how the Bayesian approach can provide valid estimates when the sample size is too small for the standard approach to work reliably. The proposed Bayesian approach can form the basis for developing more advanced analyses.     

Characterisation of airborne particles collected within and proximal to an opencast coalmine: South Wales,U.K

Airborne particulate matter has been collected from within,and proximal to, an opencast coal mine in south Wales. Thiswork forms the first part of a three year project to collectand characterise, then determine the possible toxicology ofairborne particles in the south Wales region. High-resolutionField Emission SEM has shown that the coal mine dusts consistlargely of an assemblage of mineral grains and vehicle exhaustparticles. SEM-EDX has shown that the mineralogical make-up ofthe PM10 is complex, heterogeneous, and constantly changing.These findings are supported by analytical TEM-EPXMA.However, patterns can be determined relating the mineralogicalcomposition of the airborne particles to collection locationsand mining activities within the opencast. At our studyopencast, Park Slip West, quartz, which has known healtheffects, never exceeded 30% of the total collection mass, andaverage levels were much less. Vehicle exhaust emissions wasthe largest source in terms of particle numbers. The mass ofairborne particulate matter within the pit averagedapproximately twice that of outside the pit: importantlyhowever, this higher mass was due to relatively large, andnon-respirable, mineral grains. This study demonstrates that the physicochemical andmineralogical characterisation of airborne particles frommining and quarrying is essential to quantify the respirablefraction, and to identify potentially hazardous componentswithin the PM10.     

1998年珊瑚死亡事件对肯尼亚珊瑚礁和渔业的影响

为了评价1998年珊瑚脱色和死亡事件的影响,在南肯尼亚收集了有关珊瑚礁生态系统和渔业的数据.我们比较了1998年前3年和后3年在未经捕捞的海洋公园和经受捕捞的珊瑚礁区中的海底覆盖物、海胆和鱼类丰度及与珊瑚礁有关的渔业.     

The Influence of Urban Density and Drainage Infrastructure on the Concentrations and Loads of Pollutants in Small Streams

Effective water quality management of streams in urbanized basins requires identification of the elements of urbanization that contribute most to pollutant concentrations and loads. Drainage connection (the proportion of impervious area directly connected to streams by pipes or lined drains) is proposed as a variable explaining variance in the generally weak relationships between pollutant concentrations and imperviousness. Fifteen small streams draining independent subbasins east of Melbourne, Australia, were sampled for a suite of water quality variables. Geometric mean concentrations of all variables were calculated separately for baseflow and storm events, and these, together with estimates of runoff derived from a rainfall-runoff model, were used to estimate mean annual loads. Patterns of concentrations among the streams were assessed against patterns of imperviousness, drainage connection, unsealed (unpaved) road density, elevation, longitude (all of which were intercorrelated), septic tank density, and basin area. Baseflow and storm event concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), filterable reactive phosphorus (FRP), total phosphorus (TP) and ammonium, along with electrical conductivity (EC), all increased with imperviousness and its correlates. Hierarchical partitioning showed that DOC, EC, FRP, and storm event TP were independently correlated with drainage connection more strongly than could be explained by chance. Neither pH nor total suspended solids concentrations were strongly correlated with any basin variable. Oxidized and total nitrogen concentrations were most strongly explained by septic tank density. Loads of all variables were strongly correlated with imperviousness and connection. Priority should be given to low-impact urban design, which primarily involves reducing drainage connection, to minimize urbanization-related pollutant impacts on streams.     

Conflict and Impacts of Divers and Anglers in a Marine Park

The New South Wales State Government (Australia) gazetted the Jervis Bay Marine Park (JBMP) in 1998. During the preparation of the draft zoning plan in 2000, societal data on two conflicting park user groups—recreational scuba divers and fishers (anglers)—was collected. While conflict resolution was a plan priority, other factors, such as cumulative environmental impacts of users and protection for the critically endangered grey nurse shark (Carcharias taurus), further complicated planning. Both scuba diving and angling are primary summer activities and are disproportionately concentrated around the headlands of the bay. Furthermore, shore based game-fishing was concentrated on the northern headland, where the conflict was centered. However, when the exact locations of divers and anglers were determined, there was a partial partitioning of the available space, with only a small contested overlap. To resolve conflict and maximize positive environmental outcomes, a sanctuary zone and no-anchoring zone option in the draft zoning plan was sought to formalize this partition. The human dimension data proved valuable in guiding environmental management in this politically volatile situation. A baseline study conducted 11 years previously was also used to gain a limited perspective on change in user numbers. Comparison between study periods indicated dive numbers had remained similar, while the number of dive charter trips was significantly less. The numbers of anglers, for the four months compared, had doubled and tripled. The actual data used to inform management is presented and the limitations of this best available data approach are discussed.     

Complying with Executive Order 13148 using the Enterprise Environmental Safety And Occupational Health Management Information System

All U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) facilities are required under Executive Order (EO) 13148, "Greening the Government through Leadership in Environmental Management," to establish quality-based environmental management systems (EMSs) that support environmental decision-making and verification of continuous environmental improvement by December 31, 2005. Compliance with EO 13148 as well as other federal, state, and local environmental regulations places a significant information management burden on DoD facilities. Cost-effective management of environmental data compels DoD facilities to establish robust database systems that not only address the complex and multifaceted environmental monitoring, record-keeping, and reporting requirements demanded by these rules but enable environmental management decision-makers to gauge improvements in environmental performance. The Enterprise Environmental Safety and Occupational Health Management Information System (EESOH-MIS) is a new electronic database developed by the U.S. Air Force to manage both the data needs associated with regulatory compliance programs across its facilities as well as the non-regulatory environmental information that supports installation business practices. The U.S. Air Force, which has adopted the Plan-Do-Check-Act methodology as the EMS standard that it will employ to address EO 13148 requirements.     

Enhancing climate technology transfer through greater public–private cooperation: Lessons from Thailand and the Philippines

This article contributes to debates about climate change policy and technology transfer by analyzing the success factors underlying collaboration between private companies and communities in developing countries. To date, much attention to capacity building for enabling environments — including public–private collaboration — under the climate change convention has focused on state‐led initiatives and on the innovation and development of technologies. This article, instead, focuses on how private‐sector investors and host communities may collaborate in the diffusion of technologies, by reducing the costs of technology transfer, and making technology more appropriate to developing countries. The article describes cases of collaboration concerning waste management and waste‐to‐energy in Thailand and the Philippines. The article argues that successful public–private partnerships between investors and communities depends on minimizing transaction costs, strengthening collaborative (or assurance) mechanisms, and in maximizing public trust and accountability of partnerships. Lessons are then drawn for enhancing capacity building for technology transfer under the climate change convention and applications such as the Clean Development Mechanism.