Accuracy improvement of various short-term load forecasting models by a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method

ABSTRACT

Time-series and machine-learning methods are being strongly exploited to improve the accuracy of short-term load forecasting (STLF) results. In developing countries, power consumption behaviors could be suddenly changed by different customers, e.g. industrial customers, residential customers, so the load-demand dataset is often unstable. Therefore, reliability assessment of the load-demand dataset is obviously necessary for STLF models. Hence, this paper proposes a novel and unified statistical data-filtering method with the best confidence interval to eliminate unexpected noises/outliers of the input dataset before performing various short-term load forecasting models. This proposed novel data-filtering method, so-called the data pre-processing method, is also compared to other existing data-filtering methods (e.g. Kalman filter, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise, Wavelet transform, and Singular Spectrum Analysis). By using an SCADA system?-based database of a typical 22kV distribution network in Vietnam, NYISO database, and PJM-RTO database, case studies of short-term load forecasting have been conducted with a conventional ARIMA model, an ANN forecasting model, an LSTM-RNN model, an LSTM-CNN combined model, a deep auto-encoder (DAE) network, a Wavenet-based model, a Wavenet and LSTM hybrid model, and a Wavelet Neural Network (WNN) model, which are to validate the novel and unified statistical data-filtering method proposed. The achieved numerical results demonstrate which the accuracy of the aforementioned STLF models can be significantly improved due to the proposed statistical data-filtering method with the best confidence interval of the input load dataset. The proposed statistical data-filtering method can considerably outperform the existing data-filtering methods.     

Meso-scale hydrodynamic and reproductive asynchrony affects the source–sink metapopulation structure of the coastal polychaete Pectinaria koreni

The polychaete Pectinaria koreni exhibits a complex life cycle characterized by non-overlapping generations and widespread larval dispersal. To explore how “local” metapopulation genetic structure varies spatially and temporally during population turnover, we combined observations on demography, larval dispersal through hydrodynamic modelling and population genetics of successive age cohorts in the Baie de Seine (eastern English Channel, France). Mature adults (March), newly settled (July) and later-stage juveniles (September) were sampled in 2003 on the edge and in the main demes of the metapopulation. Demes displayed an asynchronous dynamics due to variations in habitat quality affecting reproductive timing (e.g. three distinct spawning events observed) and in local larval supply linked to temporal fluctuations of hydrodynamism. Two-source populations were identified among dense areas with the greatest larval retention and self-recruitment rates: one with a single recruitment event, stable temporal genetic variation and a strong spatial genetic re-homogenization during turnover, and the other with two recruitment events and significant allele frequency changes over time. Sink habitats displayed single recruitment event and experienced strong inter-generational (juveniles vs adults) genetic changes due to genetic drift associated with strong winter mortalities. Altogether, results suggested that adult spawning asynchrony and sweepstakes reproductive success, together with genetic drift, played a greater role than hydrodynamics itself in determining effective recruitment rates at some sites and generating genetic patchiness.     

Iron-doped copper 1,4-benzenedicarboxylate as photo-Fenton catalyst for degradation of methylene blue

Abstract

A metal-organic framework of iron-doped copper 1,4-benzenedicarboxylate was synthesized and, for the first time, utilized as a heterogeneous photo-Fenton catalyst for degradation of methylene blue dye in aqueous solution under visible light irradiation. The synthesized materials were characterized by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. The influence factors, kinetics, and stability of the synthesized catalysts were investigated in detail. Iron-doped copper 1,4-benzenedicarboxylate showed higher degradation efficiency than pure copper 1,4-benzenedicarboxylate. An almost complete degradation was achieved within 70?min under visible light irradiation at a solution pH of 6, a catalyst loading of 1?g?L^?1, a H₂O₂ dosage of 0.05?mol L^?1 and methylene blue concentration of 50?mg?L^?1. Recycling studies demonstrated that the iron-doped copper 1,4-benzenedicarboxylate is a promising heterogeneous photo-Fenton catalyst for long-term removal of methylene blue dye from industrial wastewater.     

Soil particle-size composition and coastal erosion and accretion study in Soc Trang mangrove forests

Coastal erosion results in loss of land, which impacts the economy, coastal residents and settlement plans, especially in the context of rising sea levels caused by climate change. Studying soil particle-size fractions in mangrove forests will help provide a better understanding of the relationship between soil proportions and coastal processes as well as the role of mangrove forests to support coastal planning and management. Soil samples were collected at 26 sampling plots at depths of 10 cm and 40 cm in the Cu Lao Dung (CLD), Long Phu (LP) and Vinh Chau (VC) mangrove forests in Viet Nam’s Soc Trang Province. The soil proportions based on six different particle-sizes (<0.074 mm, 0.074–0.1 mm, 0.1–0.25 mm, 0.25–0.5 mm, 0.5–1.0 mm, and >1.0 mm) were measured using a dry sieving method. Analysis showed that soil particle-sizes ranging between 0.074 and 0.5 mm made up 75–95 % of the soil sample weight at both depths. The high standard deviation values of soil proportions of each given particle-size among sampling plots indicated the soil proportions by particle-size varied widely across the sampling plots. Cluster analysis found similar pattern of soil particle-size proportions for samples collected in CLD and VC, and different pattern of soil particle-size proportions in samples collected at LP, which is more impacted by the Mekong River flow and has a thin mangrove forest belt.?Non-metric dimension scaling (NMDS) analysis showed that sampling plots across the landward sites of the three mangrove forest areas were distributed in the nearby locations (Stress?=?0.11). This indicated that soil proportions of particle-sizes of samples collected from areas of the natural forest composed of different species were more similar. Such similarities were not found, however, in samples collected from middle and seaward plots dominated by single-species plantations.     

Dioxin levels in the breast milk and estradiol and androgen levels in the saliva of Vietnamese primiparae

Human exposure to polychlorinated dibenzodioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF), especially 2,3,7,8 tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD), was investigated in Vietnam since initial severe adverse health effects were reported in the late 1970s. The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of dioxin exposure on steroid hormones of primiparae in an Agent Orange/dioxin hot-spot and a non-exposed area in Vietnam. Sixteen primiparae (8 at each site), all of whom were aged between 20 and 30 years with infants aged between 4 and 16 weeks, agreed to participate in this study. The mean dioxin levels in breast milk of primiparae from the hot-spot area, in terms of PCDD, PCDF, and PCDD?+?PCDF toxic equivalents (TEQ), were significantly higher than those for the non-exposed area. PCDD TEQ, PCDF TEQ, and PCDD?+?PCDF TEQ levels showed a significant correlation with dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA), androstenedione (A-dione), and estradiol (E2) in the saliva of primiparae in a combination of hot-spot and non-exposed areas in Vietnam. The dose–response curve between salivary E2 or A-dione levels and dioxin levels was U-shaped in humans. This study provides an overview of studies regarding dioxin hot-spots and effects on human health and steroid hormone levels in particular, with a focus on the toxicity attributed to dioxins and furans. Furthermore, causal evidence regarding the effects of dioxins on endocrine disruption in humans is provided.     

Investigation of As, Mn and Fe fixation inside the aquifer during groundwater exploitation in the experimental system imitated natural conditions

Water-dissolved oxygen was supplied into anaerobic aquifer , which oxidized Fe(II), Mn(II) and trivalent arsenic and changed them into undissolved solid matter through hydrolysis, precipitation, co-precipitation and adsorption processes. The experiment was carried out on the column imitated a bore core of anaerobic aquifer with water phase containing Fe(II), Mn(II), As(III) concentration of 45.12 mg/L, 14.52 mg/L, 219.4 μg/L, respectively and other ions similarly composition in groundwater. After 6 days of air supply, concentration of iron reduced to 0.38 mg/L, manganese to 0.4 mg/L, arsenic to 9.8 μg/L (equivalent 99.16% of iron, 97.25% of manganese and 95.53% of arsenic fixed), and for other ions, the concentration changed almost according to general principles. Ion phosphate and silicate strongly influenced on arsenic removal but supported iron and manganese precipitation from water phase. Based on the experimental results, new model of groundwater exploitation was proposed.     

Complex hydrochemical characteristics of the Middle–Upper Pleistocene aquifer in Soc Trang Province,Southern Vietnam

Environmental Geochemistry and Health - Environmental isotope techniques were applied to study the hydrochemical characteristics of groundwater in Soc Trang Province, Southern Vietnam, in frame of...     

Radon (222Rn) level variations on a regional scale: influence of the basement trace element (U, Th) geochemistry on radon exhalation rates

The approach proposed in this study provides insight into the influence of the basement geochemistry on the spatial distribution of radon (222Rn) levels both at the soil/atmosphere interface and in the atmosphere. We combine different types of in situ radon measurements and a geochemical classification of the lithologies, based on 1/50,000 geological maps, and on their trace element (U, Th) contents. The advantages of this approach are validated by a survey of a stable basement area of Hercynian age, located in South Brittany (western France) and characterized by metamorphic rocks and granitoids displaying a wide range of uranium contents. The radon source-term of the lithologies, their uranium content, is most likely to be the primary parameter which controls the radon concentrations in the outdoor environment. Indeed, the highest radon levels (> or = 100 Bq m-3 in the atmosphere, > or = 100 mBq m-2 s-1 at the surface of the soil) are mostly observed on lithologies whose mean uranium content can exceed 8 ppm and which correspond to peraluminous leucogranites or metagranitoids derived from uraniferous granitoids.     

Cold winter temperatures condition the egg-hatching dynamics of a grape disease vector

The leafhopper Scaphoideus titanus is the vector of a major phytoplasma grapevine disease, Flavescence dorée. The vector’s distribution is in Eastern and Northern Europe, and its population dynamics varies as a function of vineyard latitude. We tested the hypothesis that hatching dynamics are cued by cold temperatures observed in winter. We exposed eggs from a natural population to simulated “cold” and “mild” winters and varied the exposure time at 5 °C from 0 to 63 days. We show that temperature cooling mainly affected the onset of hatching and is negatively correlated to the cold time exposure. The majority of hatchings occurred more quickly in cold rather than in mild winter simulated conditions, but there was no significant difference between the duration of hatching of eggs whatever the cold time exposure. In agreement with the Northern American origin of the vector, the diapause termination and thus the timing regulation of egg hatching require cold winters.     

Indoor pesticide application practices and levels in homes of Bangkok Metropolitan Region

This study investigated the indoor application practices of pesticides in different homes located in urban, suburban, and rural areas of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR). A multi-stage stratified-judgmental sampling was applied to select 280 representative households in BMR for an in-depth questionnaire survey. We found about 71% of these households having mosquitoes as their main indoor nuisance. An inventory on the types and active ingredients was obtained through a shop-shelf survey. Among 22 available commercial products, 12 different active ingredients were observed with the pyrethroid containing pesticides are the most common. The stepwise regression analysis was conducted to reveal the statistical association between indoor levels of total pyrethriods (in the air and on the floor surface of homes) and the household application practices such as the overlap time period since the last application, application and storage locations, and frequency of applications, for instances.