Effect of the Pittsburgh Air Pollution Episode upon Pulmonary Function in School Children

Due to increasing atmospheric concentrations of participates, five of Allegheny County’s seven monitoring areas were placed on first stage air pollution alert by November 18,1975. The Liberty Borough area reached second stage alert, and then emergency stage the morning of November 19. An investigation was mounted to determine whether these emergency levels of par-ticulates had an effect upon the pulmonary function of school children sufficiently severe that it would require several days for pulmonary function to return to normal. Beginning November 20 in two schools and November 21 in four additional schools, the three-quarter second forced expiratory volume (FEV.75) and the forced vital capacity (FVC) of approximately 270 parochial school children in fourth, fifth, and sixth grades were tested daily through November 26. Two schools, approximately 80 children, were in control areas; the remaining children were exposed to high or very high levels of particulate air pollution with significant levels of sulfur oxides. If a severe effect of pollution on pulmonary function occurred, one would expect daily measurements to tend upward in children in the four schools in polluted areas and to remain more or less steady in the two control areas. Analyses of the data yielded no indications of such an effect of air pollution upon the lung function of the school children studied. Pulmonary function values declined very slightly in all six schools over the study period. Unexplained variability over a weekend was observed.     

Modeling population effects of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on a long-lived species

The 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill exposed common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Barataria Bay, Louisiana to heavy oiling that caused increased mortality and chronic disease and impaired reproduction in surviving dolphins. We conducted photographic surveys and veterinary assessments in the decade following the spill. We assigned a prognostic score (good, fair, guarded, poor, or grave) for each dolphin to provide a single integrated indicator of overall health, and we examined temporal trends in prognostic scores. We used expert elicitation to quantify the implications of trends for the proportion of the dolphins that would recover within their lifetime. We integrated expert elicitation, along with other new information, in a population dynamics model to predict the effects of observed health trends on demography. We compared the resulting population trajectory with that predicted under baseline (no spill) conditions. Disease conditions persisted and have recently worsened in dolphins that were presumably exposed to DWH oil: 78% of those assessed in 2018 had a guarded, poor, or grave prognosis. Dolphins born after the spill were in better health. We estimated that the population declined by 45% (95% CI 14–74) relative to baseline and will take 35 years (95% CI 18–67) to recover to 95% of baseline numbers. The sum of annual differences between baseline and injured population sizes (i.e., the lost cetacean years) was 30,993 (95% CI 6607–94,148). The population is currently at a minimum point in its recovery trajectory and is vulnerable to emerging threats, including planned ecosystem restoration efforts that are likely to be detrimental to the dolphins’ survival. Our modeling framework demonstrates an approach for integrating different sources and types of data, highlights the utility of expert elicitation for indeterminable input parameters, and emphasizes the importance of considering and monitoring long-term health of long-lived species subject to environmental disasters. Article impact statement: Oil spills can have long-term consequences for the health of long-lived species; thus, effective restoration and monitoring are needed.     

Global invasive potential of 10 parasitic witchweeds and related Orobanchaceae

The plant family Orobanchaceae includes many parasitic weeds that are also impressive invaders and aggressive crop pests with several specialized features (e.g. microscopic seeds, parasitic habits). Although they have provoked several large-scale eradication and control efforts, no global evaluation of their invasive potential is as yet available. We use tools from ecological niche modeling in combination with occurrence records from herbarium specimens to evaluate the global invasive potential of each of 10 species in this assemblage, representing several of the worst global invaders. The invasive potential of these species is considerable, with all tropical and subtropical countries, and most temperate countries, vulnerable to invasions by one or more of them.