Spatial Validation of Land Use Change Models Using Multiple Assessment Techniques: A Case Study of Transition Potential Models

Using land use and cover change (LUCC) models for the urban growth planning, environmental assessment, and decision-making needs the establishment of an appropriate level of confidence in their performance. The objective of this research is to explore the importance of using multiple assessment techniques in order to fairly evaluate the performance of land use models. An application is conducted by using the Land Change Modeler for Ecological Sustainability (LCM) which is an empirical and transition potential model. LCM is applied to model the agricultural to developed areas transition in Rennes metropolitan area (France). The land demand is estimated using the Markov Chain model; whereas, the transition potential map is implemented using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network (MLP) method based on historical changes and driving variables. The model performance is assessed based on a variety of the most commonly used validation techniques. At the study area level, the correctness and disagreement analysis shows that LCM performs better at predicting the amount than the allocation of developed areas. Additionally, landscape metrics reveal that LCM tends to predict a fragmented urban form, which seems evident because of the large number of the individual urban patches. At the municipality level, the error budget analysis shows that the model performance, which varies highly between different subareas, needs to be improved. Moreover, the cross-tabulation between the transition potential map and both the observed and the predicted agricultural to developed areas transitions reveals that the order of the transition potential values does not perfectly fit the observed change; whereas, the predicted change is not solely limited to areas with high potential.     

Mercury Air Emission from Coal-Fired Public Power Sector: Uncertainty and Its Monthly Distribution. Case Study from Poland

The paper presents two aspects concerned with the mercury air emission inventory from coal-fired public power and energy plants: an uncertainty analysis, using Monte Carlo simulation (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 44(247), 335–341 1949) and the monthly distributions applying the Denton-Cholette approach (Dagum & Cholette 2006). The analysis determines uncertainty about the estimates mercury air emission from 1990 to 2012 including the development of air pollution control (APC) technologies in the Polish public power and energy sector, also the monthly distributions in comparison with previously obtained results (H?awiczka 2008). The uncertainty of mercury (Hg) content in fuel is 31.6% for hard coal and 42.4% for brown coal. The confidence interval for the estimated emission changed from [kg] (16,082.2; 16,242.2) in 1990 to (10,525.9;10,671.1) in 2012. However, the Denton-Cholette approach overestimates the emissions for the warmer periods of the year, but it could, however, in our view, be applied to attain the monthly distributions.     

Assessing regulatory violations of disinfection by-products in water distribution networks using a non-compliance potential index

Inactivating pathogens is essential to eradicate waterborne diseases. However, disinfection forms undesirable disinfection by-products (DBPs) in the presence of natural organic matter. Many regulations and guidelines exist to limit DBP exposure for eliminating possible health impacts such as bladder cancer, reproductive effects, and child development effects. In this paper, an index named non-compliance potential (NCP) index is proposed to evaluate regulatory violations by DBPs. The index can serve to evaluate water quality in distribution networks using the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). BBN is a graphical model to represent contributing variables and their probabilistic relationships. Total trihalomethanes (TTHM), haloacetic acids (HAA5), and free residual chlorine (FRC) are selected as the variables to predict the NCP index. A methodology has been proposed to implement the index using either monitored data, empirical model results (e.g., multiple linear regression), and disinfectant kinetics through EPANET simulations. The index’s usefulness is demonstrated through two case studies on municipal distribution systems using both full-scale monitoring and modeled data. The proposed approach can be implemented for data-sparse conditions, making it especially useful for smaller municipal drinking water systems.     

Assessment of physicochemical parameters and prevalence of virulent and multiple-antibiotic-resistant <Emphasis Type="Italic">Escherichia coli</Emphasis> in treated effluent of two wastewater treatment plants and receiving aquatic <Emphasis Type="Italic">milieu</Emphasis> in Durban,South Africa

The poor operational status of some wastewater treatment plants often result in the discharge of inadequately treated effluent into receiving surface waters. This is of significant public health concern as there are many informal settlement dwellers (ISDs) that rely on these surface waters for their domestic use. This study investigated the treatment efficiency of two independent wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Durban, South Africa and determined the impact of treated effluent discharge on the physicochemical and microbial quality of the receiving water bodies over a 6-month period. Presumptive Escherichia coli isolates were identified using biochemical tests and detection of the mdh gene via PCR. Six major virulence genes namely eae, hly, fliC, stx1, stx2, and rfbE were also detected via PCR while antibiotic resistance profiles of the isolates were determined using Kirby-Bauer disc diffusion assay. The physicochemical parameters of the wastewater samples ranged variously between 9 and 313.33 mg/L, 1.52 and 76.43 NTUs, and 6.30 and 7.87 for COD, turbidity, and pH respectively, while the E. coli counts ranged between 0 and 31.2?×?10³ CFU/ml. Of the 200 selected E. coli isolates, the hly gene was found in 28 %, fliC in 20 %, stx2 in 17 %, eae in 14 %, with stx1 and rfbE in only 4 % of the isolates. Notable resistance was observed toward trimethoprim (97 %), tetracycline (56 %), and ampicillin (52.5 %). These results further highlight the poor operational status of these WWTPs and outline the need for improved water quality monitoring and enforcement of stringent guidelines.     

Nitrogen enrichment in runoff sediments as affected by soil texture in Beijing mountain area

Enrichment ratio (ER) is widely used in nonpoint source pollution models to estimate the nutrient loss associated with soil erosion. The objective of this study was to determine the ER of total nitrogen (ER_N) in the sediments eroded from the typical soils with varying soil textures in Beijing mountain area. Each of the four soils was packed into a 40 by 30 by 15 cm soil pan and received 40-min simulated rainfalls at the intensity of 90 mm h^?1 on five slopes. ER_N for most sediments were above unity, indicating the common occurrence of nitrogen enrichment accompanied with soil erosion in Beijing mountain area. Soil texture was not the only factor that influenced N enrichment in this experiment since the ER_N for the two fine-textured soils were not always lower. Soil properties such as soil structure might exert a more important influence in some circumstances. The selective erosion of clay particles was the main reason for N enrichment, as implied by the significant positive correlation between the ER of total nitrogen and clay fraction in eroded sediments. Significant regression equations between ER_N and sediment yield were obtained for two pairs of soils, which were artificially categorized by soil texture. The one for fine-textured soils had greater intercept and more negative slope. Thus, the initially higher ER_N would be lower than that for the other two soils with coarser texture once the sediment yield exceeded 629 kg ha^?1.     

Mitigation Costs in a Globalized World: Climate Policy Analysis with REMIND-R

Within this paper, we present the novel hybrid model REMIND-R and its application in a climate policy context based on the EU target to avoid a warming of the Earth’s atmosphere by more than 2°C compared to the pre-industrial level. This paper aims to identify necessary long-term changes in the energy system and the magnitude of costs to attain such a climate protection target under different designs of the post-2012 climate policy regime. The regional specification of mitigation costs is analyzed in the context of globalization where regions are linked by global markets for emission permits, goods, and several resources. From simulation experiments with REMIND-R, it turns out that quite different strategies of restructuring the energy system are pursued by the regions. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the variance of mitigation costs is higher across regions than across policy regimes. First-order impacts, in particular, reduced rents from trade in fossil resources, prevail regardless of the design of the policy regime.     

Chlorinated and brominated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans in surface sediment from Taihu Lake, China

Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PCDD/Fs) and polybrominated dibenzo-p-dioxins and dibenzofurans (PBDD/Fs) in surface sediment samples from Taihu Lake--an important water supply of the Yangtze River Delta, China--were investigated in the present study. Concentrations of PCDD/Fs ranged from 0.91 to 4.8 pg TEQ g(-1) dw (mean: 2.9 pg TEQ g(-1) dw, TEQ: Toxic Equivalent), which were all higher than the threshold effect level established by interim sediment quality guidelines in Canada (0.85 pg TEQ g(-1) dw). The levels of PBDD/Fs ranged from 0.16 to 1.6 pg TEQ g(-1) dw (mean: 0.52 pg TEQ g(-1) dw) and accounted for 5-33% (mean: 14%) of the total PCDD/Fs and PBDD/Fs TEQ. Comparatively, the abundance of sedimentary PCDD/Fs in the three regions (Meiliang Bay, Gonghu Bay, and Xukou Bay) showed a decreasing trend from the inflow region to the outflow region, while no significant difference was observed among their 2,3,7,8-PBDD/Fs levels, which suggested that the sources of PCDD/Fs and PBDD/Fs differed in this area. Principal component analysis suggested that the historical production/usage of pentachlorophenol and sodium pentachlorophenate was the dominant source of PCDD/Fs in the sediment of these regions. Although the specific sources of PBDD/Fs in the sediment of Taihu Lake were unclear, it was suspected to be due to atmospheric deposition; however, an additional study is needed to confirm this.     

Characteristic, composition, and sources of TSP investigated by HRTEM/EDS and ESEM/EDS

Total suspended particle (TSP) collected at the fifth floor of House Dust in Hunan University, China, was analyzed in terms of microscopic morphology and chemical composition. The fine particles (50?nm-2?μm) in the TSP were analyzed by a high-resolution transmission electron microscope equipped with an energy-dispersive X-ray analyzer (HRTEM/EDS). Results showed that the particles were in shapes of plate, irregular and agglomerate. Based on EDS results, these fine particulate matter was primarily composed of Fe-rich (35.82-61.29%), Ca-rich (30.18-36.77%) and Si-rich (18.95-32.28%) particles. Other elements mainly including Mg (0.47-4.97%), Al (0.45-14.57%), S (0.45-4.73%), K (1.13-2.13%) and Zn (0.67-3.85%) were also observed. The sources analysis indicated that the HRTEM particles mainly originated from coal combustion, traffic emission, vehicles exhaust emission and fugitive soil or cement particulate matter. The coarse particles (4-50?μm) were detected by environmental scanning electron microscopy coupled with energy-dispersive X-ray detector (ESEM/EDS). Based on a simple algorithm, ESEM particles were categorized into five groups: C-bearing (46.15%, 67% and 86.98%), Si + Ca-bearing (21.48?+?11.80%, 16.51?+?10.81% and 16.32?+?10.62%), Si + Al-bearing (20.06?+?12.40%, 20.16?+?11.22% and 15.31?+?11.25%), Si-bearing (34.40%, 26.92% and 27.15%) particles and aggregates, most of which exhibit obvious crystalline structure, and these ESEM particles mainly derived from vehicles exhaust emission, coal combustion, soil, and biomass burning, while the aggregates are indicative of atmospheric reaction progress. HRTEM/EDS and ESEM/EDS are mutual complementary in analyzing the characteristic and determining the sources of TSP.     

Long-term seasonal changes of the Danube River eco-chemical status in the region of Serbia

Seasonal spatial and temporal changes of selected eco-chemical parameters in section of the Danube River flowing through Serbia were analyzed. Data for electrical conductivity (EC), dry and suspended matter, residue on ignition, chemical oxygen demand (COD), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD-5), ultraviolet extinction, dissolved oxygen (DO), oxygen saturation, pH, nitrates, total phosphorus, and nitrogen were collected between 1992 and 2006. The use of monthly medians combined with linear regression and two-sided t test has been proven to be the best approach for resolving trends from natural variability of investigated parameters and for determining trend significance. Patterns of temporal changes between different months were examined. It was also determined that spatial trends of some parameters oscillate in predictable manner, increasing in one part of the year and declining in the other. Regression slope coefficients, an excellent indicator for determining when the water quality is changing the most along the course of the Danube, reach their maximum during summer for temperature (t), electric conductivity, nitrates, and total N, while in the same season suspended matter, COD, BOD-5, DO, and oxygen saturation coefficients reach their minimum. Correlations for used data sets of selected parameters were analyzed for better understanding of their behavior and mutual relations. It was observed that as Danube flows through Serbia, its general eco-chemical status either stagnates or improves, but the rate of river self-purification often depends on the season of the year.     

Fish scales as indicators of wastewater toxicity from an international water channel Tung Dhab drain

The effect of wastewater exposure on scales and chromatophores of freshwater fish Channa punctatus was studied using wastewater dilutions (60–100%) from an international water channel Tung Dhab drain at an interval of 15 and 30 days. The exposed fish showed significant alterations such as uprooted and damaged lepidonts and dispersal of chromatophores. These observations strongly suggest that fish scales can be successfully employed as indicators of wastewater pollution.