Reviews

DESIGN ON THE LAND: the development of Landscape Architecture Norman T. Newton Belknap Harvard

COMMUNITY CENTERS AND STUDENT UNIONS Eugene D. Sternberg and Barbara E. Sternberg Van Hostrand Reinhold Company, New York.

DECISION AND CONTROL by Stafford Beer, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 1966 (3rd printing, 1970)

INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS by Jay W. Forrester, M.I.T. Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1961. S.1O.5O.

PRINCIPLES OF SYSTEMS by Jay W. Forrester. Wright‐Allen Press, Inc., Cambridge, Mass., 1968.

PUBLIC INQUIRIES AS AN INSTRUMENT OF GOVERNMENT R.E. Wraith and G.B. Lamb George Allen & Unwin Ltd. for the Royal Institute of Public Administration, London 1971, £4.50.

SYSTEMS APPROACH AND THE CITY M.D. Mesarovic and A. Reisman (eds.) North‐Holland Publishing Co., Amsterdam and London, 1972.

SIMULATION IN THE CLASSROOM John L. Taylor and Rex Walford Penguin Books, London, 1972. 45p.

DEVELOPMENT BUILDING: THE TEAM APPROACH C.W. Griffin John Wiley & Sons, Inc. for the American Institute of Architects, New York, 1972.     

Initiation of feeding and salinity tolerance in the pacific lamprey Lampetra tridentata

Changes in salinity tolerance were determined during metamorphosis in Lampetra tridentata. Lampreys in Phase 5 of metamorphosis were unable to withstand salinities>13.4S, while those in Phase 6 survived direct transfer to sea water (30S). This abrupt change in tolerance coincided with the opening of the foregut lumen. Parasitic feeding began at the end of Phase 7 of metamorphosis following the completion of tooth development.     

The Steubenville Comprehensive Air Monitoring Program (SCAMP): analysis of short-term and episodic variations in PM2.5 concentrations using hourly air monitoring data

One-hour average ambient concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm (PM2.5) were determined in Steubenville, OH, between June 2000 and May 2002 with a tapered element oscillating microbalance (TEOM). Hourly average gaseous copollutant [carbon monoxide (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and ozone (O3)] concentrations and meteorological conditions also were measured. Although 75% of the 14,682 hourly PM2.5 concentrations measured during this period were < or = 17 microg/m3, concentrations > 65 microg/m3 were observed 76 times. On average, PM2.5 concentrations at Steubenville exhibited a diurnal pattern of higher early morning concentrations and lower afternoon concentrations, similar to the diurnal profiles of CO and NO(x). This pattern was highly variable; however, PM2.5 concentrations > 65 microg/m3 were never observed during the mid-afternoon between 1:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. EST. Twenty-two episodes centered on one or more of these elevated concentrations were identified. Five episodes occurred during the months June through August; the maximum PM2.5 concentration during these episodes was 76.6 microg/m3. Episodes occurring during climatologically cooler months often featured higher peak concentrations (five had maximum concentrations between 95.0 and 139.6 microg/m3), and many exhibited strong covariation between PM2.5 and CO, NO(x), or SO2. Case studies suggested that nocturnal surface-based temperature inversions were influential in driving high nighttime concentrations of these species during several cool season episodes, which typically had dramatically lower afternoon concentrations. These findings provide insights that may be useful in the development of PM2.5 reduction strategies for Steubenville, and suggest that studies assessing possible health effects of PM2.5 should carefully consider exposure issues related to the intraday timing of PM2.5 episodes, as well as the potential for toxicological interactions among PM2.5, and primary gaseous pollutants.     

Causation in risk assessment and management: models, inference, biases, and a microbial risk-benefit case study

Causal inference of exposure-response relations from data is a challenging aspect of risk assessment with important implications for public and private risk management. Such inference, which is fundamentally empirical and based on exposure (or dose)-response models, seldom arises from a single set of data; rather, it requires integrating heterogeneous information from diverse sources and disciplines including epidemiology, toxicology, and cell and molecular biology. The causal aspects we discuss focus on these three aspects: drawing sound inferences about causal relations from one or more observational studies; addressing and resolving biases that can affect a single multivariate empirical exposure-response study; and applying the results from these considerations to the microbiological risk management of human health risks and benefits of a ban on antibiotic use in animals, in the context of banning enrofloxacin or macrolides, antibiotics used against bacterial illnesses in poultry, and the effects of such bans on changing the risk of human food-borne campylobacteriosis infections. The purposes of this paper are to describe novel causal methods for assessing empirical causation and inference; exemplify how to deal with biases that routinely arise in multivariate exposure- or dose-response modeling; and provide a simplified discussion of a case study of causal inference using microbial risk analysis as an example. The case study supports the conclusion that the human health benefits from a ban are unlikely to be greater than the excess human health risks that it could create, even when accounting for uncertainty. We conclude that quantitative causal analysis of risks is a preferable to qualitative assessments because it does not involve unjustified loss of information and is sound under the inferential use of risk results by management.     

On monitoring anthropogenic airborne uranium concentrations and (235)U/(238)U isotopic ratio by Lichen - bio-indicator technique

Lichens are widely used to assess the atmospheric pollution by heavy metals and radionuclides. However, few studies are available in publications on using lichens to qualitatively assess the atmospheric pollution levels. The paper presents research results applying epiphytic lichens as bio-monitors of quantitative atmospheric contamination with uranium. The observations were conducted during 2.5 years in the natural environment. Two experimental sites were used: one in the vicinity of a uranium contamination source, the other one - at a sufficient distance away to represent the background conditions. Air and lichens were sampled at both sites monthly. Epiphytic lichens Hypogimnia physodes were used as bio-indicators. Lichen samples were taken from various trees at about 1.5m from the ground. Air was sampled with filters at sampling stations. The uranium content in lichen and air samples as well as isotopic mass ratios (235)U/(238)U were measured by mass-spectrometer technique after uranium pre-extraction. Measured content of uranium were 1.45 mgkg(-1) in lichen at 2.09 E-04 microgm(-3) in air and 0.106 mgkg(-1) in lichen at 1.13 E-05 microgm(-3) in air. The relationship of the uranium content in atmosphere and that in lichens was determined, C(AIR)=exp(1.1 x C(LICHEN)-12). The possibility of separate identification of natural and man-made uranium in lichens was demonstrated in principle.     

Modelling and experimental studies on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit

Although fruit is an important component of the diet, the extent to which it contributes to radiological exposure remains unclear, partially as a consequence of uncertainties in models and data used to assess transfer of radionuclides in the food chain. A Fruits Working Group operated as part of the IAEA BIOMASS (BIOsphere Modelling and ASSessment) programme from 1997 to 2000, with the aim of improving the robustness of the models that are used for radiological assessment. The Group completed a number of modelling and experimental activities including: (i) a review of experimental, field and modelling information on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (ii) discussion of recently completed or ongoing experimental studies; (iii) development of a database on the transfer of radionuclides to fruit; (iv) development of a conceptual model for fruit and (v) two model intercomparison studies and a model validation study. The Group achieved significant advances in understanding the processes involved in transfer of radionuclides to fruit. The work demonstrated that further experimental and modelling studies are required to ensure that the current generation of models can be applied to a wide range of scenarios.     

The crash severity impacts of fixed roadside objects

INTRODUCTION: This study analyzes the in-service performance of roadside hardware on the entire urban State Route system in Washington State by developing multivariate statistical models of injury severity in fixed-object crashes using discrete outcome theory. The objective is to provide deeper insight into significant factors that affect crash severities involving fixed roadside objects, through improved statistical efficiency along with disaggregate and multivariate analysis. METHOD: The developed models are multivariate nested logit models of injury severity and they are estimated with statistical efficiency using the method of full information maximum likelihood. RESULTS: The results show that leading ends of guardrails and bridge rails, along with large wooden poles (e.g. trees and utility poles) increase the probability of fatal injury. The face of guardrails is associated with a reduction in the probability of evident injury, and concrete barriers are shown to be associated with a higher probability of lower severities. Other variables included driver characteristics, which showed expected results, validating the model. For example, driving over the speed limit and driving under the influence of alcohol increase the probability of fatal accidents. Drivers that do not use seatbelts are associated with an increase in the probability of more severe injuries, even when an airbag is activated. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The presented models show the contribution of guardrail leading ends toward fatal injuries. It is therefore important to use well-designed leading ends and to upgrade badly performing leading ends on guardrails and bridges. The models also indicate the importance of protecting vehicles from crashes with rigid poles and tree stumps, as these are linked with greater severities and fatalities.