Demonstrating Floodplain Uncertainty Using Flood Probability Maps1

Abstract: The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) flood maps depict the 100‐year recurrence interval floodplain boundary as a single line. However, because of natural variability and model uncertainty, no floodplain extents can be accurately defined by a single line. This article presents a new approach to floodplain mapping that takes advantage of accepted methodologies in hydrologic and hydraulic analysis while including the effects of uncertainty. In this approach, the extents of computed floodplain boundaries are defined as a continuous map of flood probabilities, rather than as a single line. Engineers and planners can use these flood probability maps for viewing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary at any recurrence interval. Such a flood probability map is a useful tool for visualizing the uncertainty of a floodplain boundary and represents greater honesty in engineering technologies that are used for flood mapping. While institutional barriers may prevent adoption of such definitions for use in graduated flood insurance rates (as most other insurance industries use to account for relative risks), the methods open the door technically to such a reality.     

Fish bioassay monitoring of waste effluents

Spills of toxic materials into bodies of water receiving industrial waste discharges can be prevented only if frequent or continuous assessments of effluent quality can be made. Currently available methods can automatically measure individual physical or chemical waste components but cannot assess toxicity caused by the interaction of components or the presence of an unsuspected material. Aquatic organisms, in contrast, respond to their total environment and in this way integrate the effects of all the various chemical and physical waste parameters.This study evaluates the possibility of using the continuously and automatically recorded responses of fish to monitor the toxicity of industrial waste effluents. A review of previously developed toxicity monitoring systems is followed by a field evaluation of a method that uses the computer-monitored ventilatory patterns of 12 bluegills (Lepomis macrochirus Rafinesque) to monitor the toxicity of an industrial waste effluent as it flows into a river. No known toxic spills occurred in the effluent during the operation of this system, but acetone added to the effluent waste caused responses from the fish at concentrations which peaked near the 96-hr LC₅₀ level. Some responses were also noted when no known toxicant was present; these were related to environmental disturbances and system design problems. Recommendations are made for the design of future biologic monitoring units.     

ROLE OF IRRIGATION WATER IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: SOME RESOURCE USE ISSUES1

ABSTRACT: A partial production function for corn that considers the time and amount of water applications is determined. Examples are worked out by using data on site specific parameters for nine soil sites in the Great Plains Region repesenting various combinations of water holding capacity, pan evaporation, and average rainfall. It is found that soils with a low water holding capacity are more water and energy intensive in crop production and thus more vulnerable to fluctuations in net returns due to declining water tables or energy shortages. Despite this, farmers of low water holding capacity soils are likely to opt for irrigation. This points to the existence of a necessary, but sufficient, condition for socially inefficient use of ground water resources. This calls to question the property right concept in water created through the appropriation doctrine and the “law of capture.” This paper indicates the type of analysis that must be undertaken in order to make appropriate changes in laws governing water use.     

PHREATOPHYTE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND ITS POTENTIAL REDUCTION WITHOUT ERADICATION1

ABSTRACT: The continuous availability of ground water to riparian phreatophytic vegetation results in large evapotranspiration (ET) losses in summer. Chemical or physical eradication of this vegetation can have undesirable environmental side effects. Spraying phreatophyte foliage with a nontoxic antitranspirant (AT) may reduce transpiration without eradication. Transpiration rate per unit leaf area was similar for several phreatophyte species, but ET per unit land area of phreatophytes depneds more on stand density than species. The mean ET for saltcedar in June was 8.1 mm/day measured by Bowen ratio, compared with 7.9 mm by lysimeters. ATs and growth-retardants reduced transpiration by over 50 percent in laboratory tests where foliage was thoroughly sprayed. In the field AT sprayed by a back-pack mistblower reduced ET by 20–35 percent initially and 10 percent after a month. No ET reduction occurred when AT was sprayed by helicopter on saltcedar, because excessive droplet size and heavy salt deposits on the foliage resulted in poor spray adherence. Wax-based AT was relatively nontoxic to fish and wildlife. Dissolved oxygen could be reduced for aquatic life, but further AT dilution in streams and ponds would minimize this. Helicopter spraying may affect bird nests and egg hatchability. Although ATs significantly reduce ET, their high cost and spraying difficulties preclude current use on phreatophytes. With improvement they may economically help to conserve water in riparian areas in future years.     

THE APPLICATION OF HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO SMALL WATERSHEDS HAVING MILD TOPOGRAPHY1

ABSTRACT: The application of hydrologic models to small watersheds of mild topography is not well documented. This study evaluates the applicability of hydrologic models described by Huggins and the Soil Conservation Service to small watersheds by comparing the simulated and actual hydrograph for both gaged and ungaged situations. The annual maximum rainfall events plus storms exceeding 2.5 inches from 25 years of rainfall and runoff data for two small watersheds were selected for the model evaluations. These storms had a variety of patterns and occurred on many different watershed conditions. Simulated and actual hydrographs were compared using a parameter which contained volume, peak, and shape factors. One-half of the selected storms were used to calibrate the models. For both models, there were no significant differences between the simulated and actual runoff volumes and peak runoff rates. Parameters obtained during the calibration process and relationships developed to estimate antecedent moisture and to modify tabulated runoff curve numbers were used to simulate the runoff hydrograph from the remaining storms. These remaining storms or test storms were simulated only once in order to imitate an ungaged situation. In general, both the Huggins and SCS model performed similarly on the test storms, but the level of model performance was lower than that for the calibration storms. For both models, the two-day antecedent rainfall was more important than the five-day in determining antecedent moisture and modifying tabulated curve numbers. The time of concentration which resulted in good hydrograph simulations was about three times larger than that estimated using published empirical relationships.     

A note on empty bottles

This note examines the second-order conditions of the Massel-Parrish (M-P) model of a beverage market in which a monopolist producer of beverages packaged in ‘private mould’ bottles has monopsony power in the market for the empty bottles. Customers pay only the shelf price if they return the empty bottle; and, the shelf price plus the forfeited deposit if they discard it. The analysis determines directional changes in the optimal shelf price, deposit levels, and unit sales resulting from changes in each of five demand and three supply parameters. Potential effects of current legislation requiring mandatory deposits on all beverage containers are also analysed.