Modelling and assessment of South African elephant Loxodonta africana population persistence

The use of a quantitative population growth model to investigate the persistence of South African elephant populations is explored. The model provides quantitative assessments of population persistence and confidence intervals for estimated parameters based purely on population size estimates. The analysis supports the view that most of the larger populations in the region are secure. This view is further supported by a lack of density dependent effects in most of the recovering populations and the high population rates of increase observed. This predominantly positive prognosis is in contrast with that emerging from most of the rest of the African continent where the populations are under greater threat because of habitat restriction and direct human conflict. This preliminary assessment of elephant population persistence suggests that “viable” populations may lie between 400 and 6000 individuals. Although not inconsistent with information-greedy genetic and demographic models, the relationship between population growth versus genetic and demographic models should be further investigated. The implementation of a metapopulation management strategy towards these smaller populations is advocated. In addition, as all of the populations included in this analysis have been afforded some degree of protection since the 1920s, continued protection would be a prerequisite for their continued survival.     

Global sensitivity analysis of a process-based model for ammonia emissions from manure storage and treatment structures

The development of process-based models to estimate ammonia emissions from animal feeding operations (AFOSs) is sought to replace costly and time-consuming direct measurements. Critical to process-based model development is conducting sensitivity analysis to determine the input parameters and their interactions that contribute most to the variance of the model output. Global and relative sensitivity analyses were applied to a process-based model for predicting ammonia emissions from the surface of anaerobic lagoons for treating and storing manure. The objectives were to compare global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to relative (local) sensitivity analysis (RSA) on a process-based model for ammonia emissions. Based on the first-order coefficient, both GSA and RSA showed the model input parameters in order of importance in process model for ammonia emissions from lagoon surfaces were: (i) pH, (ii) lagoon liquid temperature, (iii) wind speed above the lagoon surface, and (iv) the concentration of ammoniacal nitrogen in the lagoon. The GSA revealed that interactions between model parameters accounted for over two-thirds of the model variance, a result that cannot be achieved using traditional RSA. Also, the GSA showed that parameter interactions involving liquid pH had more impact on the model output variance than the single parameters: (i) temperature, (ii) wind speed, or (iii) total ammoniacal nitrogen. This study demonstrates that GSA provides a more complete analysis of model input parameters and their interactions on the model output compared to RSA. A comprehensive tutorial regarding the application of GSA to a process model is presented.     

Florida's weakened motorcycle helmet law: effects on death rates in motorcycle crashes

OBJECTIVES: Effective July 1, 2000, Florida's universal helmet law was amended to exclude riders ages 21 and older with insurance coverage providing at least 10,000 US dollars in medical benefits for injuries sustained in a motorcycle crash. Observed helmet use in Florida was reported to have declined from nearly 100% in 1998, before the law change, to 53% after. This study examined the effects of the law change on the likelihood of death, given involvement in a motorcycle crash. METHODS: Rates of motorcyclist deaths per crash involvement in Florida for 2001-2002 (after the law change) were compared with those for 1998-1999 (before the law change). Before/after death rate ratios (95% CIs) were examined, and logistic regression models estimated the effect of the helmet law change on the odds of death in a crash, while controlling for rider gender, age, and seating position, and number of vehicles. RESULTS: The motorcyclist death rate increased significantly after the law change, from 30.8 to 38.8 deaths per 1,000 crash involvements. Motorcyclist death rates increased for single- and multiple-vehicle crashes, for male and female operators, and for riders of all ages including those younger than 21. After controlling for gender and age, the likelihood of death given involvement in a motorcycle crash was 25% higher than expected after the law change. It is estimated that 117 motorcyclist deaths could have been avoided during 2001-2002 if Florida's universal helmet law had remained in place. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of the life-saving benefits of universal helmet laws. The results also suggest that age-specific helmet laws are not effective in protecting the youngest drivers. This is not surprising, as these laws are largely unenforceable.     

Mode choice model for vulnerable motorcyclists in Malaysia

OBJECTIVE: In developing countries, motorcycle use has grown in popularity in the past decades. Commensurate with this growth is the increase in death and casualties among motorcyclists in these countries. One of the strategic programs to minimize this problem is to reduce motorcyclists exposure by shifting them into safer modes of transport. This study aims to explore the differences in the characteristics of bus and motorcycle users. It identifies the factors contributing to their choice of transport mode and estimates the probability that motorcyclists might change their travel mode to a safer alternative; namely, bus travel. METHODS: In this article, a survey of 535 motorcycle and bus users was conducted in seven districts of Selangor state, Malaysia. A binary logit model was developed for the two alternative modes, bus and motorcycle. RESULTS: It was found that travel time, travel cost, gender, age, and income level are significant in influencing motorcyclists' mode choice behavior. The probability of motorcycle riders shifting to public transport was also examined based on a scenario of a reduction in bus travel time and travel cost. CONCLUSIONS: Reduction of total travel time for the bus mode emerges as the most important element in a program aimed at attracting motorcyclists towards public transport and away from the motorcycle mode.     

Characteristics of speeders

OBJECTIVE: To determine the characteristics of speeders, defined as drivers of vehicles traveling at least 15 mph above the posted speed limit and relatively faster than surrounding vehicles. METHODS: Vehicle speeds were recorded on 13 roads in Virginia with speed limits ranging from 40 to 55 mph. Speeders were compared with slower drivers, defined as drivers of adjacent vehicles traveling no more than 5 mph above the speed limit. License plates were used to identify vehicle owners; owners were inferred to have been driving if observed gender and estimated age matched those of the registered owner. For these drivers, information on exact driver age and gender, vehicle make and model, and driving record was obtained from the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles. RESULTS: Five percent of the vehicles observed were traveling at least 15 mph above the limit, and 3% qualified as speeders, as defined in this study. Speeders were younger than drivers in the comparison group, drove newer vehicles, and had more speeding violations and other moving violations on their records. They also had 60% more crashes. DISCUSSION: Speeders are a high-risk group. Their speeding behavior is not likely to be controlled without vigorous, consistent enforcement, including the use of automated technology.     

Longitudinal examination of underage drinking and subsequent drinking and risky driving

INTRODUCTION: Alcohol use, alcohol misuse, and risky driving from adolescence into young adulthood were compared by drinking onset age. METHODS: Surveys were administered in Grades 5/6, 6/7, 7/8, 10, 12, and at approximately age 23. Participants were placed into Drinking Onset groups based on self-reported alcohol use frequency on the adolescent surveys. Driving records were examined in three age periods: under 21, 21-25, and 26+. RESULTS: The earliest drinking initiators reported higher alcohol use and misuse on each survey, and were more likely to have risky driving offenses before age 21 and to have alcohol driving offenses in all three age periods. DISCUSSION: The earliest drinking initiators engaged in risky drinking behavior and risky driving behavior that was consistently higher than those with later drinking initiation, beginning in adolescence and persisting well into young adulthood.