Probabilistic risk assessment for pedestrian–vehicle collision considering uncertainties of pedestrian mobility

Objectives: The uncertainties of pedestrian mobility are important factors affecting the accuracy and robustness of an active pedestrian protection system. This study is to provide the means for probabilistic risk evaluation of pedestrian–vehicle collision by counting the uncertainties in pedestrian motion.

Method: The pedestrian is modeled by a first-order Markov model to characterize the stochastic properties in mobility according to field experiments of pedestrians crossing an uncontrolled road. Based on the assumption of Gaussian distribution, unscented transformation (UT) is employed to predict the collision risk probability with the symmetric σ-set constructed on the basis of discrete trajectory simulation. Simulation experiments were carried out with 10,000 Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as the reference.

Results: The probability density distributions of time-to-collision, minimal distance, and collision probability estimated by UT coincide with the reference ones under various vehicle–pedestrian conflict scenarios, and the maximal deviation of collision probability from the reference is 5.33%. The UT method is about 600 times faster than the MC method (10,000 runs), which means that the proposed method has the potential for online application.

Conclusions: This article presents an effective and efficient algorithm to estimate the collision probability by using a UT method to solve the nonlinear transformation of uncertainties in pedestrian motion. Simulation results show that the UT-based method achieves accurate collision probability estimation and higher computation efficiency than MC and provides more valuable information concerning collision avoidance than the deterministic methods in the design of a pedestrian collision avoidance system.     

Emissions of intermediate volatility organic compound from waste cooking oil biodiesel and marine gas oil on a ship auxiliary engine

Ship auxiliary engines contribute large amounts of air pollutants when at berth.Biodiesel,including that from waste cooking oil(WCO),can favor a reduction in the emission of primary pollutant when used with internal combustion engines.This study investigated the emissions of gaseous intermediate-volatile organic compounds(IVOCs) between WCO biodiesel and marine gas oil(MGO) to further understand the differences in secondary organic aerosol(SOA) production of exhausts.Results revealed that WCO exhaust exhibited similar IVOC composition and volatility distribution to MGO exhaust,despite the differences between fuel contents.While WCO biodiesel could reduce IVOC emissions by 50% as compared to MGO,and thus reduced the SOA production from IVOCs.The compositions and volatility distributions of exhaust IVOCs varied to those of their fuels,implying that fuel-component-based SOA predicting model should be used with more cautions when assessing SOA production of WCO and MGO exhausts.WCO biodiesel is a cleaner fuel comparing to conventional MGO on ship auxiliary engines with regard to the reductions in gaseous IVOC emissions and corresponding SOA productions.Although the tests were conducted on test bench,the results could be considered as representative due to the widely applications of the test engine and MGO fuel on real-world ships.     

Exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and risk for premature ovarian failure and reproductive hormones imbalance

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are a typical class of persistent organic pollutants that is ubiquitous worldwide. Previous animal studies suggested that PAHs had adverse effects on female reproduction. However, the human data regarding relationship of PAHs exposure with women reproductive health, such as ovarian dysfunction, are scarce. In this case-control study, the associations of serum levels of PAHs with the risk of premature ovarian failure (POF) and reproductive hormones in Chinese women were investigated, with recruiting 157 POF patients and 217 healthy women. The serum levels of 12 types of PAHs, as well as reproductive hormones, including follicle-stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone and anti-mullerian hormone, were determined. In the logistic regression models, most individual PAH congeners showed significantly positive correlations with the risk of POF (p < 0.05), except for fluorine and pyrene. Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), as the most carcinogenic PAH congener, was observed to be significantly positively associated with the risk of POF. After adjustment for age, body mass index, educational levels and household income, per one-unit increase in the log-transformed BaP concentration was significantly correlated with 2.191-fold increased risk of POF (OR = 2.191, 95%CI: 1.634–2.938, p < 0.05). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to report an association between internal exposure levels of PAHs and the increased risk of POF in women.     

Spatiotemporal characterization and regional contributions of O3 and NO2: An investigation of two years of monitoring data in Henan, China

To investigate the characteristics of ground level ozone(O_3) for Henan Province,the ambient air quality monitoring data of 2015 and 2016 were analyzed.The result showed that the 8 h-max-O_3 concentrations displayed a distinct seasonality,where the maximum and minimum values,averaging 140.41,54.19 μg/m~3,occurred in summer and winter,respectively.There is a significant correlation between meteorological factors and O_3 concentration.The Voronoi neighborhood averaging analysis indic ated that O_3,temperature,and ultraviolet radiation in Henan province were decreased from northwest to southeast,while relative humidity and precipitation displayed the opposite trend.Besides meteorological factors,the chemical processes play an essential role in ozone formation.Reactions of NO,NO_2 and O_3 form a closed system,and the partitioning point of the OX-component(O_3+NO_2) was at 40 and 80 μg/m~3 for nitrogen oxide(NO_x) in winter and summer,respectively,with NO_2 dominating at higher NO_x pollution and O_3 being the m ajor component at lower levels.The relationship between oxidant(OX=O_3+NO_2)and NOx concentrations were evaluated to understand the regional and local contribution of OX.It showed that high regional contribution occurred in the spring,whereas the highest local contribution lead to the summer peak of O_3 observed in Zhengzhou.This present study reveals important environment impacts from the photochemical process and the meteorological conditions in the region with better understanding on the O_3 characterization.     

Impact of environmental factors on gastric cancer: A review of the scientific evidence, human prevention and adaptation

Globally, gastric cancer (GC) ranks fifth in prevalence and third in fatalities, and shows a distinct geographical distribution in morbidity and mortality. Such a spatial pattern indicates that environmental factors could be an important contributor to GC. We reviewed a total of 135 relevant peer-reviewed articles and other literature published 1936–2019 to investigate the scientific evidence concerning the effects of environmental factors on GC worldwide. Environmental factors affect GC from the aspects of water, soil, air, radiation, and geology. Risk factors identified include water type, water pollution, water hardness, soil type, soil pollution, soil element content, climate change, air pollution, radiation, altitude, latitude, topography, and lithology; and most of them have an adverse impact on GC. Furthermore, we found that their effects followed five common rules: (1) the leading environmental factors that affect GC incidence and mortality vary by region, (2) the same environmental factors may have different effects on GC in different regions, (3) some different environmental factors have similar effects on GC in essence, (4) different environmental factors often interact to have combined or synergistic effects on GC, and (5) environmental factors can affect human factors to have an impact on GC. Environmental factors have a great impact on GC. Human beings may prevent GC by controlling carcinogenic factors, screening high-risk populations and providing symptomatic and rehabilitative treatments. Furthermore, adaptation measures are recommended to reduce GC risk on private and public levels. Future studies should transcend existing empirical studies to develop causal relationship models and focus on vulnerable population analysis.     

旱雨季岩溶地表河不同河段正构烷烃相态组成变化和来源解析

岩溶作用产生的无机碳可以在水生植物、微生物等作用下形成有机质,转化为较稳定的内源有机碳,这为寻找全球遗漏碳汇提供了新的突破口,而加强对岩溶区有机质的溯源研究是重要手段.为探究金佛山岩溶地表河溶解态、颗粒态和沉积物正构烷烃的含量、组分及来源,于2017年3月20日、9月26日分别在石钟溪上、中、下游进行采样,并利用气相色谱-质谱联用仪(GC-MS)对三相态正构烷烃的组分进行定量分析.结果显示,旱季溶解态、颗粒态和沉积物正构烷烃的平均含量分别为737 ng·L~(-1)、6108 ng·L~(-1)和7149 ng·g~(-1),雨季三者的平均含量分别为7129 ng·L~(-1)、8146 ng·L~(-1)和6213 ng·g~(-1).正构烷烃的含量整体表现为雨季高于旱季,以溶解态正构烷烃表现得最为显著,这主要由外源高等植物输入增多所致.旱季上、下游正构烷烃含量差异明显,以沉积物正构烷烃表现得最为显著,自上而下整体保持微升态势;雨季外源输入量较大,差异性减弱,整体变幅较小.不同季节降雨和气温的变化导致水动力条件、浊度及水温的不同,深刻地影响着不同相态和不同河段正构烷烃的来源和迁移.整体上,随着海拔降低,高等植物贡献度降低,水生植物和低等生物贡献度增高.当水动力条件较弱和浊度较低时,造成内源溶解有机质增多,同时会出现溶解态至颗粒态乃至沉积物的缓慢沉降迁移.     

特厚煤层综放工作面多参量监测预警分析

根据某矿12220工作面特厚煤层综放开采,穿越F16逆冲断层的特殊情况,为保证安全生产及时提供预警信息,采用微震、钻屑量、支架阻力、地表变形多种监测手段综合分析回采过程中的参量变化规律。结果表明:微震活动的峰值能量周期约为3 d,回采间距约为4.5 m,且断层下盘较上盘的微震事件能量更集中;钻屑量的统计分析发现最大值出现在上巷下帮7～11 m和下巷上帮9～11 m范围内,划定该区域为巷帮高应力集中区,并将平均钻屑量3 kg/m作为黄色预警临界值,3.5 kg/m作为红色预警临界值;另外,根据支架前、后柱阻力变化情况,划定了2个连续变化的高压力区,发现在初撑力偏低,甚至不接顶、虚顶情况下,支架梁顶部煤体受自重和构造应力作用易发生准脆性受拉断裂破坏,且在穿越逆冲断层的回采过程中,支架阻力峰值呈现由中下部向上部转移的变化规律;最后,通过对地表走向、倾向测点的变形量数据进行统计分析发现,走向面后84.9～284.8 m范围内下沉量较大,下沉速率增幅明显;而工作面倾向中部下沉量最大,整体下沉变形呈二次抛物型,其中下部下沉速率增幅明显。     

Estimation of daily PM2.5 concentration and its relationship with meteorological conditions in Beijing

When investigating the impact of air pollution on health, particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter(PM_(2.5)) is considered more harmful than particulates of other sizes. Therefore, studies of PM_(2.5) have attracted more attention. Beijing, the capital of China,is notorious for its serious air pollution problem, an issue which has been of great concern to the residents, government, and related institutes for decades. However, in China,significantly less time has been devoted to observing PM_(2.5) than for PM_(10). Especially before 2013, the density of the PM_(2.5) ground observation network was relatively low, and the distribution of observation stations was uneven. One solution is to estimate PM_(2.5) concentrations from the existing data on PM_(10). In the present study, by analyzing the relationship between the concentrations of PM_(2.5) and PM_(10), and the meteorological conditions for each season in Beijing from 2008 to 2014, a U-shaped relationship was found between the daily maximum wind speed and the daily PM concentration, including both PM_(2.5) and PM_(10). That is, the relationship between wind speed and PM concentration is not a simple positive or negative correlation in these wind directions; their relationship has a complex effect, with higher PM at low and high wind than for moderate winds.Additionally, in contrast to previous studies, we found that the PM_(2.5)/PM_(10) ratio is proportional to the mean relative humidity(MRH). According to this relationship, for each season we established a multiple nonlinear regression(MNLR) model to estimate the PM_(2.5) concentrations of the missing periods.     

刺芹侧耳对孔雀石绿的脱色降解及其产物分析

以白腐真菌刺芹侧耳(Pleurotus eryngii-Co007)为染料脱色菌株,研究三苯甲烷染料孔雀石绿的浓度、脱色p H、脱色温度及脱色时间对染料脱色的影响,并对降解产物进行紫外-可见吸收光谱分析、红外光谱分析、GC-MS分析和植物毒性实验,以揭示孔雀石绿可能的降解路径及其产物毒性.结果表明:在p H 6、30℃条件下,P.eryngii-Co007脱色降解200 mg·L-1孔雀石绿,9 h脱色率可达98.22%;孔雀石绿的降解产物主要包括4-(二甲氨基)二苯甲酮、4-(甲氨基)二苯甲酮和4-氨基二苯甲酮;推测孔雀石绿可能的降解路径为孔雀石绿中心碳的羟基化反应,随后中心碳迅速发生碳-碳键断裂,产生4-(二甲氨基)二苯甲酮,4-(二甲氨基)二苯甲酮经过两个连续的N-去甲基化过程,分别产生4-(甲氨基)二苯甲酮和4-氨基二苯甲酮;植物毒性实验表明,P.eryngii-Co007对孔雀石绿有较好的脱毒作用.综上,P.eryngii-Co007能高效脱色降解高浓度的孔雀石绿,同时可显著降低染料对植物的毒害作用.     

静电激发袋式除尘器的阻力特性实验研究

在烟气粉尘控制中,电除尘器和袋式除尘器各有特点,而静电激发袋式除尘器是2种除尘技术的联合。静电激发袋式除尘器利用电场"凝并"作用,提高对微细粉尘的除尘效率,还有利于降低除尘器运行阻力,延长滤袋使用寿命。该文在文献基础上,对电除尘、袋式除尘、电袋复合除尘的理论进行研究分析,建立了小型除尘器装置,设计实验。实验研究了荷电电压对除尘器阻力的影响以及粉尘在滤料表面沉积形态的影响。实验研究表明粉尘在荷电条件下发生凝并,并且在粉尘负荷相同条件下,小型除尘装置的阻力随着荷电电压的增加而减小,同时荷电粉尘在滤料表面的沉积形态越来越疏松。