中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估

实现2030年碳排放达峰不仅是中国为应对全球气候变化向国际社会做出的郑重承诺,也是中国未来经济结构转型与可持续发展的必然选择。基于中国实现2030年碳排放达到峰值的宏观目标为背景,本文以中国碳排放的主要行业工业为研究对象,首先运用拓展的STIRPAT模型对工业及其9个细分行业的碳排放达峰进行了情景预测,然后基于公平和效率的双重视角对工业细分行业的减排潜力进行评估。研究表明:(1)仅有低碳情景和抑制排放情景2可以实现中国碳排放2030年达峰,低碳情景是实现中国工业碳排放达峰的最佳发展模式,达峰时间最早(2030年),峰值最低(140.43亿t)。激进排放情景则是最差的发展模式,达峰时间最晚(2036年),峰值也最高(150.09亿t)。(2)工业内部各细分行业碳排放的最优达峰情景差别较大。建材和纺织制造业能够实现提前达峰,可以在这类行业率先实施达峰管理措施,使其带动其他行业陆续达峰。(3)最具减排潜力的行业是石油制造业,其次是电力行业,这些减排潜力较大的行业应该成为国家节能减排的重点对象。(4)基于工业各细分行业在减排公平性和效率性上的差异将工业9个细分行业分为四类。其中,石油、钢铁制造业和电力行业属于"高效高公平行业";化工、建材制造业属于"低效高公平行业";采掘业属于"高效不公平行业";纺织、轻工和机电制造业属于"低效不公平行业"。中国应针对不同类型的行业制定出相应的减排战略,将减排重点放在各行业最具潜力的方面。最后,文章对实现中国工业碳排放达峰管理提出了几点政策建议。     

响应面法优化甘蔗渣-污泥复合活性炭的制备工艺

为了提高污泥活性炭的吸附性能以提升其实际应用价值,提出在污泥中掺杂甘蔗渣制备复合活性炭,并采用Plackett-Burman联用响应面法对影响复合活性炭碘值的条件进行筛选优化。通过Plackett-Burman实验筛选出热解温度、热解时间和甘蔗渣与污泥干重比为主要影响因素,对这3个因素进行Box-Behnken实验,经响应面优化得到影响碘值的二次响应曲面模型,模型显示热解温度与热解时间、热解温度与干重比的交互作用显著,并确定了最佳制备条件:热解温度550℃、热解时间30 min和干重比50%,此时复合活性炭碘值为814 mg/g,优于未优化条件下制备的复合活性炭。通过比表面积、孔结构和碘值的测定以及元素和扫描电镜分析得出,甘蔗渣的掺杂提高了复合活性炭的比表面积、微孔体积、碘值及含碳量。研究结果表明,甘蔗渣掺杂和制备条件优化是提高污泥活性炭吸附性能的有效手段。     

中国春季降水与南印度洋偶极子的关系研究

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局海温资料和1951~2010年中国160站月降水量资料,分析了前期冬季（12~2月）印度洋海表温度与中国160站春季降水的关系及其影响机制。研究表明：冬季印度洋海温异常的空间模态主要有两种：符号一致的单极和东、西符号相反的南印度偶极。将第2模态的时间系数定义为南印度洋偶极子指数。该指数与中国次年春季降水关系较好,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料进行机制分析,发现主要南印度洋偶极子通过以下途径影响中国春季降水：中高纬,SIOD的影响主要引起低纬度的海温及对流异常,通过中低纬度间的相互作用,在中高纬产生较强的遥响应,从而影响同期冬季欧亚大陆的环流变化,这种扰动在西风气流的作用下引起后期春季北太平洋地区对流活动异常,通过中低纬度间的相互作用,加强中高纬地区的遥响应,表现为欧亚大陆EUP波列;低纬,SIOD的影响主要引起南海-海洋性大陆的海温及对流异常,引发经向环流异常,导致黄河至长江中下游地区垂直运动异常和气流辐合异常     

湖南省四水流域水沙周期特征及其影响因素分析

采用复小波变换和M K非参数检验的方法分析了湖南省四水流域主要控制站1951~2011年径流量与输沙量周期规律和突变特征。结果表明：(1)湖南四水径流量存在多个波动增加和波动减少的波动变化现象,但无显著变化趋势;而输沙量虽然有一定的波动,但总体上呈波动减少变化态势,而且下降趋势较显著;(2)湘潭站、桃江站和桃源站径流量和输沙量存在20~25 a的第一主周期,而石门站径流量和输沙量的第一主周期不具有一致性,径流量主周期为2 a,输沙量主周期为13 a,但其径流量和输沙量第二、三主周期变化规律相吻合,均为3~5 a的周期;(3)大量的水利工程建设是导致输沙量减少的主要原因,径流量的变化与降水的变化规律较为一致     

污泥膜覆盖好氧发酵堆体流场模拟及应用研究简

运用Gambit软件建立了污泥好氧发酵堆体的多孔介质模型,通过自行设计的实验装置获得了堆体的通风粘性阻力系数和惯性阻力系数以及功能膜压差与透气量之间的关系,用Fluent软件分析了堆体不同截面形状及底部通风管数量对堆体通风均匀性的影响,为确定合理的通风管数量及截面几何形状提供理论依据。对上海奉贤区城镇污水厂污泥处理工程发酵仓进行堆体流场模拟,确定堆体采用小拱形截面形状,堆高2 m,宽8 m,底部设置4条通风管,实际运行效果良好。     

Aquatic predicted no-effect concentration for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and probabilistic ecological risk assessment in Liaodong Bay of the Bohai Sea, China

Predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) is often used in ecological risk assessment to determine low-risk concentrations for chemicals. In the present study, native marine species were selected for toxicity testing. The PNECs for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), specifically phenanthrene (Phe), pyrene (Pyr), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), were derived from chronic and acute toxicity data with log-normal statistical methods. The achieved PNECs for Phe, Pyr, and BaP were 2.33, 1.09, and 0.011 μg/L, respectively. In Jinzhou Bay and the Shuangtaizi River Estuary of Liaodong Bay in the Bohai Sea, China, the surface water concentrations of the three PAHs were analyzed by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Based on two probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) methods, namely probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve, the potential risk of Phe, Pyr, and BaP in Jinzhou Bay and Shuangtaizi River Estuary was assessed. The same order of ecological risk (BaP > Phe > Pyr) was found by both models. Our study considered regional characteristics of marine biota during the calculation of PNECs, and the PERA methods provided probabilities of potential ecological risks of chemicals. Within the study area, further research on BaP is required due to its high potential ecological risk.     

Manganese concentrations in maternal–infant blood and birth weight

Manganese (Mn) is an essential mineral nutrient in mammals. The physiological role of Mn in animal models is well documented, but little is known about the adverse effects of Mn deficiency or overexposure in humans, including pregnancy outcomes such as birth weight. We examined the relationship of the maternal and cord blood Mn levels with birth weight in a cohort of 172 mother–infant pairs born in Shanghai, China. Non-linear spline and quadratic regression models were used to test the hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped association between the Mn levels and birth weight. The median (range) levels of Mn in the maternal and cord blood were 5.38 (2.34–30.37) μg/dL and 7.66 (2.57–34.23) μg/dL, respectively. An inverted U-shaped relationship was observed between maternal Mn and birth weight after adjusting for potential confounders. The birth weight increased with Mn levels up to 4.18 μg/dL, and a slight reduction in weight was observed at higher levels. The cord blood Mn levels were not found to be associated with birth weight. Both lower and higher Mn exposures are associated with lower birth weight, which may influence important developmental parameters; the association of higher Mn levels with lower weight was weak and imprecise.     

Effects of di-n-butyl phthalate on the physiology and ultrastructure of cucumber seedling roots

Agricultural pollution caused by the use of plastic sheetings has been documented to be a widespread problem in most of the major crop-planting regions of the world. In order to better understand the phytotoxic mechanisms induced by phthalic acid esters involved with this problem, Cucumber sativus L. cv Jinyan No. 4 were sown in pots to the three-leaf-stage in the presence of di-n-butyl phthalate (DBP; 0, 30, 50, 100, and 200 mg L^?1) for 1, 3, 5, or 7 days. Physiology, biochemistry, and ultrastructure of seedling roots were examined. The results indicated that activities of three antioxidant enzymes (superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), and peroxidase (POD)) were stimulated at low-DBP treatments and decreased under higher levels (>100 mg L^?1) compared to the controls. On the other hand, SOD and POD provided a better defense against DBP-induced oxidative damage in the roots of cucumber seeding, compared to CAT. The productions of both malondialdehyde (MDA) and proline (Pro) were promoted under DBP stress. Visible impact on the cytoderm, mitochondrion, and vacuole was detected, possibly as a consequence of free radical generation. These results suggested that activation of the antioxidant system by DBP led to the formation of reactive oxygen species that resulted in cellular damage.     

Contamination of organochlorine pesticides in water and sediments from a waterbird-inhabited lake,East Central China

Seventeen organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were investigated in the water and sediments from a waterbird-inhabited lake (Yangchaihu Lake) to evaluate their current pollution levels and potential risks. The concentrations of total OCPs in water and sediments were 10.12–59.75 ng/l and 4.25–27.35 ng/g dry weight, respectively. Hexachlorocyclohexanes (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethanes (DDTs) were the most abundant OCPs, while HCB and cyclodiene pesticides were detected with low levels. Levels of ∑OCPs (sum of 17 OCPs) at sites highly influenced by waterbirds were significantly higher than the sites with no significant waterbird populations (one-way ANOVA, P?相似文献