气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河上中游径流的影响研究

将区域气候模式RegCM3与水循环模拟模型WACM进行单向耦合,对澜沧江-湄公河流域未来气候变化和流域上中游主要控制水文站径流响应进行了模拟和分析。区域气候预估表明,相对于现状(1980—2009年),A1B情景下未来(2010—2039年)流域年平均温度和降水均有增加趋势,分别增加了0.65 ℃和1.87%,但降水增加不明显;流域北部温度增幅比南部明显,而降水区域差异较大,变化较为复杂。径流模拟结果表明,未来气候变化情景下,清盛和琅勃拉邦站多年平均径流量与天然情景相比均有减少趋势,分别减少了1.23%和3.69%,但变化不明显;未来径流年际变化呈不显著的减少趋势,而温度变化对径流影响作用要强于降水;未来春季和夏季(3—6月)径流增减相对明显,局部区域有洪涝和水文干旱的风险,而其它月份径流变化不显著。     

难降解有机污染物与葡萄糖的光电催化协同氧化作用

利用薄层反应器研究了典型的难降解有机污染物——三环癸胺在二氧化钛纳米管阵列电极表面的光电催化降解性能,重点考察了三环癸胺与葡萄糖的光电催化协同氧化作用.研究表明,三环癸胺作为一种化学性质稳定的化合物,在薄层反应器中难以在二氧化钛纳米管阵列电极光电催化中实现完全降解.在三环癸胺COD浓度50—400 mg.L-1条件下,其降解效率均低于30%,且随着三环癸胺浓度的增加降解效率下降.三环癸胺与葡萄糖之间存在着明显的光电催化协同氧化作用,且随着葡萄糖浓度的增加协同作用增强,当葡萄糖与三环癸胺浓度比值大于2时,可以实现三环癸胺的完全降解.在光电催化协同氧化过程中,三环癸胺与葡萄糖的降解并非同步进行,易降解的多羟基葡萄糖所产生的大量羟自由基,可能促进了三环癸胺或三环癸胺中间产物的氧化.该研究也为难降解的有机物的光电催化处理提出了一条新的途径.     

A GC method to determine o‐chloroacetophenone residual in soil and vegetable substrates

o‐Chloroacetophenone (CAF) is a peripheral sensory irritant used in open air situations giving rise to human and environmental exposure. An analytical GC method has been developed to determine CAF residual in soil and vegetable substrates at low ppm levels.     

码头油品泄漏扩散事故危险危害评价

运用“泄漏扩散”模型对某码头油品泄漏扩散事故危险危害程度进行了评价,得到了爆炸危险区域和中毒危害区域的面积,为码头制定应急救援预案提供了依据.     

超临界CO2气爆致裂规律实验研究

针对我国低渗透性煤层增透困难的现状,研发了可控超临界二氧化碳气爆发生装 置,对不同强度的模拟煤体进行了不同温压条件下的超临界CO2气爆实验,结合孔内窥 镜观测和外观测量手段,对爆后宏观裂隙数目和长度等爆破响应信息进行统计分析。结 果表明:气爆裂纹起裂所需的最小爆破压力与介质的抗拉强度呈指数式增长的关系,主 要是固体材料在动力载荷作用下强度增大引起的;超临界二氧化碳气爆后产生宏观裂隙 的数目和累计长度与爆破压力满足Logistic函数关系,是裂隙面积超线性增加所消耗能 量也超线性增加的结果;超临界CO2对温压条件敏感,爆破有降温作用,是良好的物理 爆破原料,使用超临界二氧化碳作为爆破原料的爆破效果优于空气爆破效果。     

Adaptive cluster sampling with clusters selected without replacement and stopping rule

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) has received much attention in recent years since it yields more precise estimates than conventional sampling designs when applied to rare and clustered populations. These results, however, are impacted by the availability of some prior knowledge about the spatial distribution and the absolute abundance of the population under study. This prior information helps the researcher to select a suitable critical value that triggers the adaptive search, the neighborhood definition and the initial sample size. A bad setting of the ACS design would worsen the performance of the adaptive estimators. In particular, one of the greatest weaknesses in ACS is the inability to control the final sampling effort if, for example, the critical value is set too low. To overcome this drawback one can introduce ACS with clusters selected without replacement where one can fix in advance the number of distinct clusters to be selected or ACS with a stopping rule which stops the adaptive sampling when a predetermined sample size limit is reached or when a given stopping rule is verified. However, the stopping rule breaks down the theoretical basis for the unbiasedness of the ACS estimators introducing an unknown amount of bias in the estimates. The current study improves the performance of ACS when applied to patchy and clustered but not rare populations and/or less clustered populations. This is done by combining the stopping rule with ACS without replacement of clusters so as to further limit the sampling effort in form of traveling expenses by avoiding repeat observations and by reducing the final sample size. The performance of the proposed design is investigated using simulated and real data.     

Is natural hatching asynchrony optimal? An experimental investigation of sibling competition patterns in a facultatively siblicidal seabird

In unpredictable environments, any tactic that enables avian parents to adjust brood size and, thus, energy expenditure to environmental conditions should be favoured. Hatching asynchrony (HA), which occurs whenever incubation commences before clutch completion, may comprise such a tactic. For instance, the sibling rivalry hypothesis states that the hierarchy among chicks, concomitant to HA, should both facilitate the adjustment of brood size to environmental conditions and reduce several components of sibling competition as compared to synchronous hatching, at both brood and individual levels. We thus predicted that brood aggression, begging and feeding rates should decrease and that older chick superiority should increase with HA increasing, leading to higher growth and survival rates. Accordingly, we investigated the effects of an experimental upward and downward manipulation of HA magnitude on behaviour, growth and survival of black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) chicks. In line with the sibling rivalry hypothesis, synchronous hatching increased aggression and tended to increase feeding rates by parents at the brood level. Begging rates, however, increased with HA contrary to our expectations. At the individual level, as HA magnitude increased, the younger chick was attacked and begged proportionally more often, experienced a slower growth and a higher mortality than its sibling. Overall, the occurrence of energetic costs triggered by synchronous hatching both for parents and chicks, together with the lower growth rate and increased mortality of the younger chick in highly asynchronous broods suggest that natural HA magnitude may be optimal.     

污染场地土壤中Cd人体可给性影响因素及对筛选值的影响

采用Unified bioaccessibility model (UBM) 模拟胃肠消化的方法测试了来自湖南、广西和大连12个污染土壤样品中Cd的人体可给性.结果显示,Cd在胃提取阶段的可给性为12.24%~81.10%,平均值为53.60%,肠提取阶段的可给性为2.01%~43.30%,平均值为19.74%.胃提取阶段的可给性浓度仅与总镉(TCd) (P<0.000, n=12)和总锰(TMn) (P=0.04, n=12)显著正相关,肠提取阶段的可给性浓度与TCd (P<0.001, n=12)、胃阶段Cd的可给性浓度(P<0.001, n=12)以及TMn(P=0.05, n=12)均显著正相关.胃阶段基于土壤中TCd和TP含量能较好的预测Cd在胃阶段的可给性浓度,模型决定系数(R2)达到0.992,肠阶段基于Cd在胃阶段的可给性浓度及土壤pH值能较好的预测其在肠阶段的可给性浓度,R2达到0.999.考虑土壤中Cd在胃中的可给性时,居住及工商业情形下土壤筛选值分别提升至未考虑可给性时的1.8倍(以可给性平均值计算)和1.2倍(以可给性最大值计算).考虑土壤中Cd在肠阶段的可给性时,居住及工商业情形下土壤筛选值分别提升至未考虑可给性时的5.0倍(以可给性平均值计算)和2.3倍(以可给性最大值计算).     

How to address data privacy concerns when using social media data in conservation science

Social media data are being increasingly used in conservation science to study human–nature interactions. User-generated content, such as images, video, text, and audio, and the associated metadata can be used to assess such interactions. A number of social media platforms provide free access to user-generated social media content. However, similar to any research involving people, scientific investigations based on social media data require compliance with highest standards of data privacy and data protection, even when data are publicly available. Should social media data be misused, the risks to individual users' privacy and well-being can be substantial. We investigated the legal basis for using social media data while ensuring data subjects’ rights through a case study based on the European Union's General Data Protection Regulation. The risks associated with using social media data in research include accidental and purposeful misidentification that has the potential to cause psychological or physical harm to an identified person. To collect, store, protect, share, and manage social media data in a way that prevents potential risks to users involved, one should minimize data, anonymize data, and follow strict data management procedure. Risk-based approaches, such as a data privacy impact assessment, can be used to identify and minimize privacy risks to social media users, to demonstrate accountability and to comply with data protection legislation. We recommend that conservation scientists carefully consider our recommendations in devising their research objectives so as to facilitate responsible use of social media data in conservation science research, for example, in conservation culturomics and investigations of illegal wildlife trade online.     

Digital data sources and methods for conservation culturomics

Ongoing loss of biological diversity is primarily the result of unsustainable human behavior. Thus, the long-term success of biodiversity conservation depends on a thorough understanding of human–nature interactions. Such interactions are ubiquitous but vary greatly in time and space and are difficult to monitor efficiently at large spatial scales. However, the Information Age also provides new opportunities to better understand human–nature interactions because many aspects of daily life are recorded in a variety of digital formats. The emerging field of conservation culturomics aims to take advantage of digital data sources and methods to study human–nature interactions and thus to provide new tools for studying conservation at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Nevertheless, technical challenges associated with the identification, access, and analysis of relevant data hamper the wider adoption of culturomics methods. To help overcome these barriers, we propose a conservation culturomics research framework that addresses data acquisition, analysis, and inherent biases. The main sources of culturomic data include web pages, social media, and other digital platforms from which metrics of content and engagement can be obtained. Obtaining raw data from these platforms is usually desirable but requires careful consideration of how to access, store, and prepare the data for analysis. Methods for data analysis include network approaches to explore connections between topics, time-series analysis for temporal data, and spatial modeling to highlight spatial patterns. Outstanding challenges associated with culturomics research include issues of interdisciplinarity, ethics, data biases, and validation. The practical guidance we offer will help conservation researchers and practitioners identify and obtain the necessary data and carry out appropriate analyses for their specific questions, thus facilitating the wider adoption of culturomics approaches for conservation applications.