基于免疫识别机理的危化品港区应急管理分析

完善的危化品港区应急管理体系能够有效的预防和减少事故,将风险和损失降到 最低。针对中国危化品港区应急管理现状,提出了基于生物免疫识别机理的SWOT-ANP综 合分析模型。从优势－劣势－机遇－威胁(SWOT) 4个方面对现状进行分析,确定和建立 应急管理指标体系。分别采用AHP和ANP方法对各因素之间的相互依赖和反馈关系加以比 较并分析计算。对比结果表明:虽然国家对危化品港区应急管理方面关注度有所增强, 但是仍然存在应急文化缺失,审查监管不足和预警机制不完善等问题,目前发展的最佳 战略是SO战略组合。     

基于Bow-tie模型的城镇输油管道风险评价方法研

根据近年来不断发生的城镇输油管道泄漏爆炸事故,提出将Bow-tie模型引入到风险评价中,将Bow-tie模型和改进的层次分析法相结合得出各影响因素的权重并排序,对管道进行风险评价,便于提出合理的安全管理方案,减少事故的发生。通过计算得到第三方因素在管道失效影响因素中占主导,而在事故后果分析中安全后果和环境后果因素影响较大,基本符合事故实际状况,说明该方法对于城镇输油管道风险分析有一定的指导意义和实用价值。     

Assessing drilling mud and technical fluid contamination in rock core and brine samples intended for microbiological monitoring at the CO2 storage site in Ketzin using fluorescent dye tracers

The CO₂SINK project in Ketzin represents a field laboratory for the storage of CO₂ in a 650-m deep saline aquifer. The project is accompanied by a microbiological monitoring programme to characterise the composition and activity of the autochthonous microbial community in rock and brine samples and their changes in response to CO₂ storage. A prerequisite of these studies is the acquisition of samples free of contamination from microorganisms and organic and inorganic components. Drilling mud and technical fluids are the main sources of contamination. This study describes the application of the fluorescent dye tracers fluorescein and rhodamine B as contamination controls for rock core and brine samples. Fluorescein was added to drilling mud that was used during the coring phase of the Ketzin wells Ktzi 200, 201 and 202. In addition, total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations, reflecting the carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) component of the drilling mud, were determined to verify the tracer results. The fluorescence and TOC analyses revealed that drilling mud filtrate penetrated the outer 20 mm of mildly permeable sandstone cores. Rhodamine B was added to brines that were used to displace the drilling mud and to flush the wells after completion. The tracer monitoring during the discharge of drilling mud and displacement brines from the wells during hydraulic tests and nitrogen lifts enabled the quantification of reservoir fluid quality. After the production of 140–190 m³ (16–21 borehole volumes) of fluid, the drilling mud concentration was reduced to about 0.05%. The use of fluorescein emerged as a field-capable, sensitive and reliable method during the sampling of rock core and formation brine samples.     

Evaluation of the Daphnia magna reproduction test for detecting endocrine disruptors

The Daphnia 21 d reproduction test is considered as a comprehensive and decisive test in the OECD Conceptual Framework for testing and assessment of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). However, how to interpret results of the Daphnia 21 d reproduction test for identification, risk assessment and testing strategy of EDCs remains an unsolved issue. This study analysed a total number of 135 published studies encompassing 86 known EDCs and non-EDCs with different modes of action. Our results show that the majority of effects on apical endpoints (survival, molting, growth, time to reproductive maturity, brood size, the number of broods, and the total number of offspring) do not seem to be EDC-specific. In contrast, the endpoint sex ratio is likely specific to juvenile hormones and their mimics. Variability is quantified for three most reported endpoints survival, the total number of offspring and sex ratio. Quantification of the endpoint sensitivity shows that the sensitivity of the sex ratio is lower than that of the total number of offspring. The Daphnia 21 d reproduction test gives insufficient information to conclude if a substance is an EDC or not. EDCs that are potent in assays in vitro may not be potent in the Daphnia 21 d reproduction test. We conclude that the Daphnia 21 d reproduction test is important for deriving No Observed Effect Concentrations for risk assessment but may produce false negatives in identification of EDCs when used on its own. A targeted testing strategy for selection of species, tests, and endpoints is suggested for identifying EDCs.     

两株稠油高效降解菌的筛选鉴定及其降解性能研究

从广州石化厂曝气池周围的油泥中筛选驯化出2株可以降解稠油的菌株GSO2和GSO7,经16S rDNA序列分析鉴定这两株菌均属于不动杆菌属(Acinetobacter sp.).通过摇瓶振荡实验,对GSO2和GSO7在以稠油为唯一碳源时的生长情况、降解率及环境条件对降解率的影响进行了研究.结果表明,菌株GSO2和GSO7...     

地铁单面坡隧道列车火灾通风模式研究

针对地铁单面坡隧道连续下坡距离长、提升高度大的特点,以国内某城市地铁线路为研究对象,构建列车火灾通风排烟数值计算模型,并采用1:20模型实验对数值计算精确度进行验证,通过考虑列车起火位置、风机开启模式和隧道断面形式等因素,对火灾烟气扩散过程、疏散平台上方烟气温度和气体浓度进行分析。研究结果表明:列车起火后,单洞单线隧道2端车站应各开启2台隧道风机,单洞双线隧道除开启射流风机外,2端车站应各开启4台隧道风机执行相应的排烟和送风模式进行烟气控制;由于单洞双线隧道中热损失和空气卷吸量较大,火灾烟气温度、CO和CO2浓度均低于单洞单线隧道;采用纵向通风控制烟气逆流的同时,下风向区域的烟气沉降作用较为明显,防排烟设计中应充分考虑列车中部火灾下风向车厢区域的危险性,合理确定应急响应模式。     

消防脉冲水枪喷嘴结构优化研究

为了进一步提高脉冲水枪的灭火效率,采用CFD技术对维多辛斯基曲线结构、锥直结构和锥角结构3种喷嘴结构进行选型优化。CFD数值模型采用RNG k-ε方法模拟湍流,利用VOF模型追踪管道内部及外部流场的气液界面,研究了不同喷嘴结构对气液分布、能量转化、速度分布的影响,并结合水室中水的体积分数和出口速度曲线图对喷射周期进行分析。研究结果表明:维多辛斯基曲线结构射流周期T=14.8 ms、锥直结构T=15.4 ms、锥角结构T=17 ms;维多辛斯基曲线结构和锥直结构的出口速度衰减较缓慢,喷嘴前端的圆柱结构能提高射流速度的稳定性;维多辛斯基曲线结构喷嘴的出口速度更稳定、集束性更好、能量转化率更高,且产生的射流水柱呈锥式逐渐扩散,动能集中分布在轴线附近,能有效增大喷射距离,提高脉冲水枪的灭火效率。     

破碎煤体再造矩形通道受力分析

为了在煤层巷道垮落后快速建立安全稳定的再生救援通道,并了解通道垮落后垮塌体的力学性质,将煤层通道垮落后破碎的煤块视为均质散粒体,通过理论分析及数值模拟,分析了在散粒体中修复新通道的基本力学特性。研究结果表明:理论分析可知,当散粒体作用在通道顶板上时,应力集中区域在顶板中部,并向两侧逐渐减小;当散粒体作用在通道两帮时,应力集中区域在两帮的底部,最大值与通道一侧的散粒体面积与截面周长的比值呈正相关;与理论分析结果相比,数值模拟分析忽略了两帮上部散粒体的影响,模拟计算所得出的应力与理论分析结果有所不同。     

基于模糊逻辑理论的应急决策冲突程度表示方法研究

针对突发灾害事故应急决策过程中的冲突问题,提出1种应急决策冲突程度的表示方法,将应急决策冲突定量表示出来。基于模糊逻辑理论对应急决策冲突进行模糊评价;通过构建“大多数”的模糊函数,确定冲突程度的表示路径;根据冲突与一致性的相对关系,对“一致性程度”的模糊函数进行改造,构建“冲突程度”的模糊函数,并通过冲突程度的计算过程,得到最终的冲突程度;结合应急决策冲突实际,划分冲突等级,并确定其取值范围。研究结果表明:基于模糊逻辑理论的应急决策冲突程度表示方法充分利用了应急决策专家的决策偏好信息,实现了应急决策冲突程度的定量表示。     

数字化视角下的应急预案结构化及流程化技术方案研究

为提高应急预案的实用性,以实现数字化应急预案为最终目标,在分析数字化应急预案的4大发展模式和“六化目标”的基础上,研究应急预案的结构化及流程化技术方法。基于应急预案响应流程的模块化思路,提出应急预案结构化拆分方法,从体现纵向到底、粒度精细、职责明确、任务追踪4大角度设计统一的应急预案拆分模板。从应急业务逻辑出发,以事件信息流为驱动机制,将流程、节点与任务进行绑定,激活应急流程链中任务的执行,最终实现应急预案的流程化。研究结果表明:基于数字化视角提出的应急预案结构化和流程化技术方案,可为相应数字化应急预案的实现提供参考和借鉴。