基于随机森林的突发事件分级模型研究

突发事件的分级是快速响应和有效应对的基础,为了解决目前突发事件分级宽泛、主观性强和动态适应性弱等问题,将多分类器集成引入突发事件的分级过程中,借助随机森林组合分类器,针对突发事件特征,构建突发事件分级的随机森林模型,形成突发事件分级过程,进而对事前的应急预案制定、事中的应急资源配置和应急决策提供有力支撑;最后,以2014-2016年洪涝灾害突发事件为例检验构建的模型和过程。研究结果表明:与支持向量机方法相比,通过检验随机森林组合分类器分类结果准确率达到97.56%,在突发事件分级的应用上是可行的,进而可为突发事件的快速响应和应急决策提供信息支撑和参考依据。     

2D brine sewage after impinging on a shallow sea free surface

We consider the problem of the vertically upwards disposal of heavy brine sewage from a two-dimensional diffuser in a lighter, homogeneous, motionless and shallow ambient sea. The rejected high salinity water of seawater desalination plants for urban and agricultural uses is such a case of a two dimensional fountain. The disposal of brine sewage produces a negative buoyant jet due to its initial momentum, which impinges on the free surface, spreads laterally on it and then sinks downwards, because of the negative buoyancy. Laboratory experiments and dimensional considerations are used in this paper in order to investigate the spreading behavior (width) of the vertical fountain which impinges on the free surface of the shallow ambient fluid. The experimental results have been used to derive an equation relating the width at the free surface with the initial parameters of the flow. In addition, the experimentally measured dilution of the heavier brine sewage on the recipient’s surface is compared with the dilution which was calculated by a numerical simulation of a well-known commercial software package, CORJET (a CORMIX sub model).     

Simulation of dam/levee-break hydrodynamics with a three-dimensional implicit unstructured-mesh finite element model

Dam failures usually cause huge economic and life losses , especially in urban areas where there is a high concentration of inhabitants and economic actors. In order to understand the physical mechanisms of the formation and development of dam-break flooding, lots of efforts have been put into different types of modelling techniques. However, most of existing models are 1D (one-dimensional) or 2D models based on the shallow water equations. In this paper, we present a 3D numerical modelling investigation of dam-break flow hydrodynamics in an open L-shape channel. A newly developed 3D unstructured mesh finite element model is used here. An absorption-like term is introduced to the Navier–Stokes equations in order to control the conditioning of the matrix equation in the numerical solution process and thus improve the stability. A wetting and drying algorithm is used here to allow the free surface height to be treated with a high level of implicitness and stability. The 3D model has been validated by comparing the results with the published experimental data. Good agreement has been achieved at six selected locations. This study shows that the 3D unstructured mesh model is capable of capturing the 3D hydraulic aspects and complicated local flows around structures in simulation of dam-break flows.     

Mechanism of the intermittent motion of two-phase debris flows

A typical two-phase debris flow exhibits a high and steep flow head consisting of rolling boulders and cobbles with intermittent or fluctuating velocity. The relative motion between the solid phase and the liquid phase is obvious. The motion of a two-phase debris flow depends not only on the rheological properties of the flow, but also on the energy transmission between the solid and liquid phases. Several models have been developed to study two-phase debris flows. An essential shortcoming of most of these models is the omission of the interaction between the two phases and identification of the different roles of the different materials in two-phase debris flows. The tracer particles were used for the velocity of solid phase and the velocity of liquid phase was calculated by the water velocity on the surface of the debris flow in the experiments. This paper analyzed the intermittent feature of two-phase debris flows based on videos of debris flows in the field and flume experiments. The experiments showed that the height of the head of the two-phase debris flow increased gradually in the initiation stage and reached equilibrium at a certain distance from the start of the debris flow. The height growth and the velocity of the flow head showed fluctuating characteristics. Model equations were established and the analyses proved that the average velocity of the two-phase debris flow head was proportional to the flood discharge and inversely proportional to the volume of the debris flow head.     

Froude scaling limitations in modeling of turbidity currents

The scaling problem associated with the modeling of turbidity currents has been recognized but is yet to be explored systematically. This paper presents an analysis of the dimensionless governing equations of turbidity currents to investigate the scale effect. Three types of flow conditions are considered: (i) conservative density current; (ii) purely depositional turbidity current; and (iii) mixed erosional/depositional turbidity current. Two controlling dimensionless numbers, the Froude number and the Reynolds number, appear in the non-dimensional governing equations. When densimetric Froude similarity is satisfied, the analysis shows that the results would be scale-invariant for conservative density current under the rough turbulent condition. In the case of purely depositional flows, truly scale-invariant results cannot be obtained, as the Reynolds-mediated scale effects appear in the bottom boundary conditions of the flow velocity and sediment fall velocity. However, the scale effect would be relatively modest. The Reynolds effect becomes more significant for erosional or mixed erosional/depositional turbidity currents as Reynolds-mediated scale effects also appear in the sediment entrainment relation. Numerical simulations have been conducted at three different scales by considering densimetric Froude scaling alone as well as combined densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarity. Simulation results confirm that although the scaling of densimetric Froude number alone can produce scale-invariable results for conservative density currents, variations occur in the case of turbidity currents. The results become scale invariant when densimetric Froude and Reynolds similarities are satisfied simultaneously.     

3种杀菌剂及其复配剂对斑马鱼的急性毒性

采用"半静态法"测定了3种农药及其复配剂对斑马鱼的24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h急性毒性,根据我国《化学农药环境安全评价实验准则》中毒性等级划分标准来划分它们对斑马鱼的毒性等级,发现35%精甲霜灵悬浮种衣剂的24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h-LC_(50)均超过10 a.i.mg·L~(-1),属"低毒"级,而25 g·L~(-1)咯菌腈悬浮种衣剂的24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h-LC_(50)分别为0.704 mg·L~(-1)、0.514 mg·L~(-1)、0.424 mg·L~(-1)、0.262 mg·L~(-1),根据0.100 a.i.mg·L~(-1)LC_(50)(96 h)≤1.00 a.i.mg·L~(-1)划分,属"高毒"级,80%嘧菌酯水分散粒剂的24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h-LC_(50)分别为9.803 mg·L~(-1)、5.175 mg·L~(-1)、4.328 mg·L~(-1)、2.326 mg·L~(-1),根据1.00 a.i.mg·L~(-1)LC_(50)(96 h)≤10.00 a.i.mg·L~(-1)划分,属于"中毒"级。11%精甲霜灵-咯菌腈-嘧菌酯悬浮种衣剂的24 h、48 h、72 h和96 h-LC_(50)分别为2.267 mg·L~(-1)、2.073 mg·L~(-1)、1.620 mg·L~(-1)、1.280 mg·L~(-1),根据1.00 a.i.mg·L~(-1)LC_(50)(96 h)≤10.00 a.i.mg·L~(-1)划分,属于"中毒",虽然11%精甲霜灵-咯菌腈-嘧菌酯悬浮种衣剂和80%嘧菌酯水分散粒剂同属"中毒",但比较具体数值,发现11%精甲霜灵-咯菌腈-嘧菌酯悬浮种衣剂毒性相对更大,原因是其中含有"高毒"的咯菌腈。     

农药混配制剂环境风险评估现状与展望

本文综述了欧洲和美国农药混配制剂的环境风险评估方法。详细介绍了欧洲食品安全局(EFSA)评估体系中的2种方法,即,基础的"整体测试法"和近年来提倡的"基于组分的方法"。"基于组分的方法"的特点是以浓度加和模型(CA模型)作为默认假设进行初级评估,以独立作用模型(IA模型)等作为高级评估手段的农药混配制剂环境风险评估方法。此外,本文还介绍了模型偏差率(MDR)、毒性相似度及毒力单元(TU)等概念以及混配制剂风险评估流程。本文的目的旨在为建立我国农药混配制剂的环境风险评估方法体系提供参考。     

3种典型微生物农药对家蚕的毒性研究

苏云金芽孢杆菌、球孢白僵菌以及棉铃虫核型多角体病毒是细菌类、真菌类和病毒类微生物农药的典型代表。为了明确微生物农药对家蚕的毒性影响,选取以上3种典型微生物农药,分别探究其对家蚕的毒性。结果显示:苏云金杆菌原药对家蚕LC50值为1.33×105CFU·m L-1;球孢白僵菌原药对家蚕LC50值为1.14×106CFU·m L-1;棉铃虫核型多角体病毒母药对家蚕LC50值大于1.00×108PIB·m L-1。与此同时,通过进一步试验,明确了以上3种微生物农药对家蚕结茧率、死笼率、全茧量、茧层量等关键指标的影响。结果显示:除了棉铃虫核型多角体病毒母药,高浓度苏云金杆菌原药、球孢白僵菌原药对家蚕的结茧率和死笼率均具有显著影响;3种微生物农药对家蚕产茧能力指标全茧量、茧层量以及蛹重均无显著性影响。     

基于机器视觉的鱼类行为特征提取与分析

近年来,水污染问题备受关注。生物式水质监测成为目前国家环境保护工作的重要任务之一。为准确监测水质污染情况,本文以青鳉鱼(Oryzias latipes)为研究对象,采用非接触式的机器视觉监测技术,提取青鳉鱼的生理特征(呼吸频率)和运动特征(胸鳍和尾鳍的摆动频率),并分析这些特征与水质之间的关系。本文采用支持向量机(Support Vector Machine,SVM)准确提取鱼鳃,并根据鱼鳃呼吸面积大小变化计算出鱼的呼吸频率。基于形态学细化算法提取青鳉鱼骨架,求出胸鳍和尾鳍的摆动频率。结果显示:不同浓度铜离子暴露实验测得的青鳉鱼生理特征和运动特征与实际情况一致;通过对不同铜离子浓度下的毒性实验数据对比,发现了青鳉鱼的生理特征和运动特征会随不同的铜离子浓度发生相应变化,可以作为水质监测的评价标准。