A hierarchical Bayesian model for forecasting state-level corn yield

Historically, the National Agricultural Statistics Service crop forecasts and estimates have been determined by a group of commodity experts called the Agricultural Statistics Board (ASB). The corn yield forecasts for the “speculative region,” ten states that account for approximately 85 % of corn production, are based on two sets of monthly surveys, a farmer interview survey and a field measurement survey. The members of the ASB subjectively determine a forecast on the basis of a discussion of the survey data and auxiliary information about weather, average planting dates, and crop maturity. The ASB uses an iterative procedure, where initial state estimates are adjusted so that the weighted sum of the final state estimates is equal to a previously-determined estimate for the speculative region. Deficiencies of the highly subjective ASB process are lack of reproducibility and a measure of uncertainty. This paper describes the use of Bayesian methods to model the ASB process in a way that leads to objective forecasts and estimates of the corn yield. First, we use small area estimation techniques to obtain state-level forecasts. Second, we describe a way to adjust the state forecasts so that the weighted sum of the state forecasts is equal to a previously-determined regional forecast. We use several diagnostic techniques to assess the goodness of fit of various models and their competitors. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to fit the models to both historic and current data from the two monthly surveys. Our results show that our methodology can provide reasonable and objective forecasts of corn yields for states in the speculative region.     

内蒙古包头放射性废物库安全运行25年

文章简要论述了内蒙古包头放射性废物库现状、扩建工程及环境整治工程概况,通过对库区、库外辐射环境质量监测,放射性处于一般环境水平,废物库运行20多年来,未对周围环境造成污染,通过整治工程的建设,达到了预期治理要求,废物库运行是安全的。     

Investigating biodiversity trajectories using scenarios – Lessons from two contrasting agricultural landscapes

Agriculture is the major land use at a global scale. In addition to food production, multifunctionality of landscapes, including values and ecosystem services like biodiversity, recreation and culture, is now focus for management. This study explores how a scenario approach, involving different stakeholders, may help to improve landscape management for biodiversity conservation. Local farmers and executives at the County Administrative Board were invited to discuss rural development and conditions for farmland biodiversity in two Swedish landscapes. The potential biodiversity for three future land use scenarios for the two landscapes was discussed: nature conservation, outdoor recreation and energy production, and compared with current and historical landscapes in each region.Analyses of habitat areas, connectedness and landscape diversity suggested that the energy and recreation scenarios had a negative impact on farmland biodiversity, whereas the nature conservation scenario, the current and historically reconstructed landscapes had a higher potential for biodiversity. The farmers appreciated the nature conservation scenario, but also the energy production scenario and they highlighted the need of increased subsidies for management of biodiversity. The farmers in the high production area were less interested in nature quality per se. The executives had similar opinions as the farmers, but disagreed on the advantages with energy production, as this would be in conflict with the high biodiversity and recreational values. The local physical and socio-economical conditions differ between landscapes and potentially shaped the stakeholders emotional attachment to the local environment, their opinions and decisions on how to manage the land. We stress the importance of incorporating local knowledge, visions and regional prerequisites for different land uses in conservation, since site and landscape specific planning for biodiversity together with a flexible subsidy system are necessary to reach the conservation goals within EU.     

ESTIMATING REGIONAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT WITH A SIMPLE SIMULATION MODEL1

A simple simulation model designed to monitor snow-packs of the central Sierra Nevada is described. The model estimates average snow water equivalent for rectangular subregions in the area. Static subregion characteristics, daily precipitation and mean and minimum air temperatures measured at three index stations are the only needed input values. A water balance technique simulates daily snowpack changes in each subregion. Reasonable basinwide water equivalent values are produced. The procedure should be useful for estimating snow water distribution in large mountainous watersheds.     

Deposition and Storage of Spheroidal Carbonaceous Fly-Ash Particles in European Mountain Lake Sediments and Catchment Soils

Spheroidal carbonaceous particles(SCPs) are produced only from high temperaturecombustion of fossil-fuels. In mountain lakesystems, they provide an unambiguous indicator ofatmospheric deposition. In order to comparedepositional fluxes of SCPs between mountainareas experiencing various pollutant regimes,intensive bulk deposition sampling was undertakenat five sites across Europe. Catchment soil coresand lake sediment cores were also taken at eachsite to compare SCP storage over the post-industrial period. Atmospheric, sediment and soilSCP data showed similar patterns. Highestcontamination was found in Scotland, Slovakia andSpain with the Austrian site intermediate and themid-Norwegian site least contaminated. A highproportion of accumulated SCPs were found to bestored in catchment soils at each site.Therefore, a significant increase in soilerosion, possibly as a result of future climatechange, could lead to the input of largequantities of catchment stored SCPs and, byimplication, other atmospherically depositedcontaminants to the lake ecosystem.     

Routine analysis of hydrocarbons, PCB and PAH in marine sediments using supercritical CO2 extraction

Automated Supercritical Fluid Extraction (SFE), using CO2, was tested and optimised for routine analysis of hydrocarbons (THC), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) in marine sediments. The aim of the exercise was to reduce the amount of solvents used and to reduce the manual handling time for each sample. The sediments contained elemental sulphur, which was removed during the extraction step using activated Cu. Similar recoveries and reproducibility where found for THC when conventional solvent extractions and SFE where compared. Modifying the CO2 with methanol was necessary to obtain extraction recoveries similar to conventional extraction methods for PCB and PAH.     

Biological effects monitoring of the North Sea employing fish embryological data

Using the reproductive capacity of fish appears to be a suitable approach for risk assessment in the aquatic environment since fish are a typical representative thereof and in addition they are of considerable societal value. Generally the early embryonic stages are considered to be one of the most sensitive parts of a fish's life cycle. A method has been developed to use the state of health of live, naturally spawned fish embryos from plankton samples for biological effects monitoring. During the years 1985–1987 in the southern North Sea and in 1991–1992 in the whole of the North Sea fish eggs were sampled from surface waters and examined for developmental abnormalities. Elevated embryo malformation rates were detected in the plume of the major rivers Elbe and Rhine as well as along the eastern coast of England. Occurring malformations are thought to be pollution-related and may be used to define areas of environmental deterioration. The method is discussed in view of its suitability for biological effects monitoring using malformations in fish embryos as biomarkers.     

Ivemark syndrome with agenesis of the corpus callosum: a case report with a review of the literature

Asplenia associated with situs ambiguus, symmetric liver, bilateral trilobulated lungs, and a complex heart defect was diagnosed on autopsy in a 14-day-old infant. Furthermore, examination of the brain displayed agenesis of the corpus callosum (ACC) with pachygyria and hydrocephalus. The characteristic association of asplenia with visceroatrial heterotaxia is traditionally named after the Swedish pediatrician, Ivemark. Although exceptional, association of Ivemark syndrome with callosal agenesis has been reported recently. The concept of ‘developmental fields’ describes morphogenetically reactive units of the embryo determining and controlling the development of complex structures in a hierarchical manner. Lateralization defects such as situs inversus, asplenia or polysplenia due to defective left–right axis development, as well as decussation defects such as ACC, are considered as defects of the primary developmental field. Therefore, additional callosal agenesis in Ivemark syndrome may be a coherent and synchronic defect in the primary developmental field rather than a causally independent malformation. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sustainable management of demolition waste—an integrated model for the evaluation of environmental, economic and social aspects

A model is presented for evaluating waste management systems for their contribution to a sustainable development, including environmental, economic and social aspects. The model was tested in a case-study, where groups of long-term unemployed people were offered both education on environmental issues and practical work with the recovery and recycling of building and demolition waste as a form of vocational development. Application of the suggested model revealed the overall effects on sustainability of different methods of waste management. In addition, negative aspects of the systems analysed were identified, which led to discussions about possible improved practices within the waste management systems. Two of the waste management systems investigated (the recycling of steel and re-use of sanitary porcelain) showed a potential contribution to sustainable development in all of the aspects studied. Preparing bricks for re-use showed the largest potential for eco-efficiency, but had negative effects on sustainability from the social perspective of health and the working environment. The possibility of further use of the model and the remaining obstacles to such analyses are discussed. One observation is that the data collection needed to perform this kind of sustainability analysis is resource-demanding, and that it would therefore be better to identify a smaller number of key indicators.