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361.
P. Valkering R. van der Brugge A. Offermans N. Rijkens-Klomp 《Regional Environmental Change》2011,11(2):229-241
Climate adaptation is a complex task surrounded by uncertainty. To support climate adaptation policies, a new scenario approach
is pursued to explore possible discontinuous future developments of societal perspectives on climate adaptation issues. The
scenario approach was tested for a case study on Dutch river management. In a series of scenario development workshops, a
select group of stakeholders explored the perspectives on the management of the River Meuse in the past, present, and future.
The process was supported by an analytical perspectives mapping tool to illustrate and analyze the development of perspectives
over time. The process and analytical tools contributed to insight into the drivers of perspective change for the case study
at hand. Moreover, the stakeholders highlighted the potential of the approach for water management policy for creating awareness
about the plurality of perspectives and the dynamics of perspective change, monitoring perspectives and perspective change
as part of a flexible policy approach, and anticipating on the occurrence of shock events. Further work is required to better
represent the social dynamics of perspectives change, to better empirically ground the perspective change model, and to apply
integrated water models in the scenario development process to assess water–society interactions. 相似文献
362.
A. M. Rusanov 《Russian Journal of Ecology》2011,42(1):30-37
Data are presented that show the significance of the humus state of chernozem soils, their amphiphilic (hydrophobic-hydrophilic) components, and related physical properties (density, structural condition, and water permeability) for regeneration of natural vegetation and restoration of its species com-position in pasture ecosystems. 相似文献
363.
364.
The results of studies on the radial increment of larch and pine in central Yakutia are presented. The application of dendroclimatological
methods to the study of tree-ring chronologies has made it possible to evaluate tree growth response to the dynamics of climatic
factors over the past 120 years. The results of analysis of radial tree increment show that the onset of the growing season
has shifted to earlier dates by the end of the 20th century. 相似文献
365.
Behavioral adaptations of ant species were studied in associations of different biotopes in the Crimean Mountains. The pattern
of an association was found to depend on the mode of the territorial behavior of dominant species, irrespective of their number.
The dominance hierarchy was more strict in monodominant than in bidominant associations. Ant species demonstrated different
behavioral strategies, plasticity of foraging, and avoidance of aggressive encounters. A method for formalizing interspecies
relationships and a model describing stochastic properties of the biological system are proposed, which can be useful in solving
various ethological and ecological problems. 相似文献
366.
Scientific community and policy-makers share the common interest in identifying and evaluating potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems, relying mainly on probabilistic methods of exploring the risks. In this perspective, the concept of ensemble forecasting makes possible to handle uncertainties associated with climate risk analysis by focusing on a range of potential or probable impact scenarios rather than actualizing a single case. In this paper, an ensemble of simulations based on the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) model was used to investigate the uncertainty upon predictions of the future Euro-Mediterranean vegetation distribution, carbon dynamics, and water budget. Twenty simulations from past to future were based on the combination of different climate inputs, vegetation model parameterizations, and configurations. The evaluation of results combined the separate deterministic future projections from the LPJ model into a single probabilistic projection, associating a likelihood degree in accordance with the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change terminology. Results projected a general critical situation in terms of water availability, made more serious if considering that also the occurrence of extreme-related events, e.g., fires, is expected to become more frequent as favored by more recurrent drought episodes. Although more uncomfortable climate conditions were projected for vegetation, net primary production (NPP) was predicted to increase due to the potential enrichment of CO2 in atmosphere and its fertilization effects on vegetation. The combination of rising NPP and fire frequency may shape the carbon cycle components, as the carbon losses by fire also were projected to increase. 相似文献
367.
J. Lelieveld P. Hadjinicolaou E. Kostopoulou C. Giannakopoulos A. Pozzer M. Tanarhte E. Tyrlis 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(5):1937-1949
The eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, a region with diverse socioeconomic and cultural identities, is exposed to strong climatic gradients between its temperate north and arid south. Model projections of the twenty-first century indicate increasing hot weather extremes and decreasing rainfall. We present model results, which suggest that across the Balkan Peninsula and Turkey climate change is particularly rapid, and especially summer temperatures are expected to increase strongly. Temperature rise can be amplified by the depletion of soil moisture, which limits evaporative cooling, prompted by the waning of large-scale weather systems that generate rain. Very hot summers that occurred only rarely in the recent past are projected to become common by the middle and the end of the century. Throughout the region, the annual number of heat wave days may increase drastically. Furthermore, conditions in the region are conducive for photochemical air pollution. Our model projections suggest strongly increasing ozone formation, a confounding health risk factor particularly in urban areas. This adds to the high concentrations of aerosol particles from natural (desert dust) and anthropogenic sources. The heat extremes may have strong impacts, especially in the Middle East where environmental stresses are plentiful. 相似文献
368.
D. González-Zeas S. Quiroga A. Iglesias L. Garrote 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(5):1983-1993
The effects of climate change on agriculture are often characterised by changes in the average productivity of crops; however, these indicators provide limited information regarding the risks associated with fluctuations in productivity resulting from future changes in climate variability that may also affect agriculture. In this context, this study evaluates the combined effects of the risks associated with anomalies reflected by changes in the mean crop yield and the variability of productivity in European agro-climatic regions under future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to evaluate adaptation needs and to identify regional effects that should be addressed with greater urgency in the light of the risks and opportunities that are identified. The results show differential effects on regional agriculture and highlight the importance of considering both regional average impacts and the variability in crop productivity in setting priorities for the adaptation and maintenance of rural incomes and agricultural insurance programmes. 相似文献
369.
370.
Probabilistic impacts of climate change on flood frequency using response surfaces II: Scotland 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
A. L. Kay S. M. Crooks H. N. Davies N. S. Reynard 《Regional Environmental Change》2014,14(3):1243-1255
This paper uses a sensitivity framework approach to look at the probabilistic impacts of climate change on 20-year return period flood peaks, by applying a set of typical response surfaces alongside the probabilistic UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) for 10 river-basin regions over Scotland. The first paper of the pair used the same approach for 10 river-basin regions over England and Wales. This paper develops the methodology for Scotland, by first enabling better estimation of the response type of Scottish catchments. Then, as for England and Wales, the potential range of impacts is shown for different types of catchment in each river-basin region in Scotland, and regional average impact ranges are estimated. Results show clear differences in impacts between catchments of different types and between regions. The Argyll and West Highland regions show the highest impacts, while the North-East Scotland region shows the lowest impacts. The overall ranges are generally smaller for Scotland than England and Wales. 相似文献