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Use of Substitute Species in Conservation Biology 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Abstract: In conservation biology, researchers often want to study the reasons why an endangered population is faring poorly but are unable to study it directly for logistical or political reasons. Instead they study a species that substitutes for the one of concern in the hope that it will cast light on the conservation problem. Here we outline the assumptions underlying this approach. Substitutes can be different populations or species and may be chosen because they are similar biologically to the target or representatives of a constellation of species of which the target is one. They also may be used to develop a predictive model to which the conservation target can be related. For substitutes to be appropriate, they should share the same key ecological or behavioral traits that make the target sensitive to environmental disturbance and the relationship between population vital rates and level of disturbance should match that of the target. These conditions are unlikely to pertain in most circumstances and the use of substitute species to predict endangered populations' responses to disturbance is questionable. 相似文献
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Policy makers often must rely on the cumulative impact of independent actions taken by local landowners to achieve environmental
goals. The connection between policy, regulation, and local action, however, is often not well understood and, thus, the impact
of proposed policies may be difficult to predict. In this study we evaluate the effectiveness of alternative policy scenarios
for agricultural set aside programs (e.g., the conservation reserve program administered by the United States Department of
Agriculture) in reducing nonpoint pollution. Two alternative policy scenarios are developed and analyzed; one based on the
erodibility index (detachment), the other sediment yield (transport). An estimate of the cumulative impact of associated land
use change on nonpoint pollution is made using the AGNPS distributed parameter watershed model. This work is completed within
the Cypress Creek watershed in southern Illinois. An analysis of the resulting data suggests that the most efficacious regulatory
strategy for achieving nonpoint water pollution goals depends, in part, on place-specific land use patterns. This conclusion
provides a solid argument for place-based regulatory strategies. 相似文献
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In assessing the impact of pollution, a key question is whether the risk of certain events (e.g. cases of a disease) is elevated in areas near the source of pollution. We review statistical methods based on point processes for analysis of event locations and counts of events in disjoint census regions. 相似文献
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DONALD L. PHILLIPS E. HENRY LEE ANDREW A. HERSTROM WILLIAM E. HOGSETT DAVID T. TINGEY 《Environmetrics》1997,8(1):43-61
In order to assess the impact of tropospheric ozone on forests, it is necessary to quantify ozone exposure on regional scales. Since ozone monitoring stations are widely scattered and mostly concentrate in urban and suburban areas, some form of spatial interpolation is necessary to estimate ambient air quality at non-monitored forested sites. This paper examines four different interpolation procedures for estimating ozone exposure as quantified by the SUM06 index (sum of hourly concentrations at or above 0.06 ppm) for July 1988 within the geographic range of loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) in the southeastern United States. The first three methods, inverse distance weighting (INVD), inverse distance squared weighting (INVD2), and ordinary kriging, are routinely used interpolators. In addition, we examined the use of cokriging, a geostatistical procedure which utilizes additional information from correlated auxiliary variables to aid in estimation, with a synthetic ozone exposure potential index (EPI). This index incorporated monthly data on anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx), average daily maximum temperature, wind directional frequencies, and distance downwind from anthropogenic NOx sources. The EPI index had a correlation coefficient of 0.626 with monitored SUM06 measurements. Cross-validation indicated that the accuracy and precision of the interpolators increased in the order: INVD < INVD2 < ordinary kriging < cokriging. Cokriging with EPI exhibited 44–62 per cent lower mean error, 0–10 per cent lower mean absolute error, 6–14 per cent lower error standard deviation, and 4–10 per cent higher predicted versus observed r2 values than the other three methods. These results show the potential for use of additional covariate data for prediction of ozone exposure in forested areas. However, increased monitoring of forested areas is needed to more adequately characterize forest exposure to ozone and its consequences. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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JULIE M. VAN DER HOOP MICHAEL J. MOORE SUSAN G. BARCO TIMOTHY V.N. COLE PIERRE‐YVES DAOUST ALLISON G. HENRY DONALD F. MCALPINE WILLIAM A. MCLELLAN TONYA WIMMER ANDREW R. SOLOW 《Conservation biology》2013,27(1):121-133
United States and Canadian governments have responded to legal requirements to reduce human‐induced whale mortality via vessel strikes and entanglement in fishing gear by implementing a suite of regulatory actions. We analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of mortality of large whales in the Northwest Atlantic (23.5°N to 48.0°N), 1970 through 2009, in the context of management changes. We used a multinomial logistic model fitted by maximum likelihood to detect trends in cause‐specific mortalities with time. We compared the number of human‐caused mortalities with U.S. federally established levels of potential biological removal (i.e., species‐specific sustainable human‐caused mortality). From 1970 through 2009, 1762 mortalities (all known) and serious injuries (likely fatal) involved 8 species of large whales. We determined cause of death for 43% of all mortalities; of those, 67% (502) resulted from human interactions. Entanglement in fishing gear was the primary cause of death across all species (n = 323), followed by natural causes (n = 248) and vessel strikes (n = 171). Established sustainable levels of mortality were consistently exceeded in 2 species by up to 650%. Probabilities of entanglement and vessel‐strike mortality increased significantly from 1990 through 2009. There was no significant change in the local intensity of all or vessel‐strike mortalities before and after 2003, the year after which numerous mitigation efforts were enacted. So far, regulatory efforts have not reduced the lethal effects of human activities to large whales on a population‐range basis, although we do not exclude the possibility of success of targeted measures for specific local habitats that were not within the resolution of our analyses. It is unclear how shortfalls in management design or compliance relate to our findings. Analyses such as the one we conducted are crucial in critically evaluating wildlife‐management decisions. The results of these analyses can provide managers with direction for modifying regulated measures and can be applied globally to mortality‐driven conservation issues. Evaluación del Manejo para Mitigar Efectos Antropogénicos sobre Ballenas Mayores 相似文献
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Abstract: Die-offs of cordgrass are pervasive throughout western Atlantic salt marshes, yet understanding of the mechanisms precipitating these events is limited. We tested whether herbivory by the native crab , Sesarma reticulatum , is generating die-offs of cordgrass that are currently occurring on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), by manipulating crab access to cordgrass transplanted into die-off areas and healthy vegetation. We surveyed 12 Cape Cod marshes to investigate whether the extent of cordgrass die-off on creek banks, where die-offs are concentrated, was related to local Sesarma grazing intensity and crab density. We then used archived aerial images to examine whether creek bank die-off areas have expanded over the past 2 decades and tested the hypothesis that release from predation, leading to elevated Sesarma densities, is triggering cordgrass die-offs by tethering crabs where die-offs are pervasive and where die-offs have not yet been reported. Intensity of crab grazing on transplanted cordgrass was an order of magnitude higher in die-off areas than in adjacent vegetation. Surveys revealed that Sesarma herbivory has denuded nearly half the creek banks in Cape Cod marshes, and differences in crab-grazing intensity among marshes explained >80% of variation in the extent of the die-offs. Moreover, the rate of die-off expansion and area of marsh affected have more than doubled since 2000. Crab-tethering experiments suggest that release from predation has triggered elevated crab densities that are driving these die-offs, indicating that disruption of predator–prey interactions may be generating the collapse of marsh ecosystems previously thought to be exclusively under bottom-up control . 相似文献
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The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26: 180–184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory‐billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record. Sobre Avistamientos Inciertos e Inferencia de la Extinción 相似文献
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E. C. M. PARSONS A. ALONSO AGUIRRE AMY L. BAUER LOUISE K. BLIGHT JOHN A. CIGLIANO MELINDA A. COLEMAN ISABELLE M. CÔTÉ MEGAN DRAHEIM STEPHEN FLETCHER MELISSA M. FOLEY REBECCA JEFFERSON MIRANDA C. JONES BRENDAN P. KELAHER CAROLYN J. LUNDQUIST JULIE‐BETH MCCARTHY ANNE NELSON KATHERYN PATTERSON LESLIE WALSH ANDREW J. WRIGHT WILLIAM J. SUTHERLAND 《Conservation biology》2014,28(5):1206-1214
The ocean provides food, economic activity, and cultural value for a large proportion of humanity. Our knowledge of marine ecosystems lags behind that of terrestrial ecosystems, limiting effective protection of marine resources. We describe the outcome of 2 workshops in 2011 and 2012 to establish a list of important questions, which, if answered, would substantially improve our ability to conserve and manage the world's marine resources. Participants included individuals from academia, government, and nongovernment organizations with broad experience across disciplines, marine ecosystems, and countries that vary in levels of development. Contributors from the fields of science, conservation, industry, and government submitted questions to our workshops, which we distilled into a list of priority research questions. Through this process, we identified 71 key questions. We grouped these into 8 subject categories, each pertaining to a broad component of marine conservation: fisheries, climate change, other anthropogenic threats, ecosystems, marine citizenship, policy, societal and cultural considerations, and scientific enterprise. Our questions address many issues that are specific to marine conservation, and will serve as a road map to funders and researchers to develop programs that can greatly benefit marine conservation. Setenta y Un Preguntas Importantes para la Conservación de la Biodiversidad Marina 相似文献