Predicting Pathogen Introduction: West Nile Virus Spread to Galápagos

Abstract:  Emerging infectious diseases are a key threat to conservation and public health, yet predicting and preventing their emergence is notoriously difficult. We devised a predictive model for the introduction of a zoonotic vector-borne pathogen by considering each of the pathways by which it may be introduced to a new area and comparing the relative risk of each pathway. This framework is an adaptation of pest introduction models and estimates the number of infectious individuals arriving in a location and the duration of their infectivity. We used it to determine the most likely route for the introduction of West Nile virus to Galápagos and measures that can be taken to reduce the risk of introduction. The introduction of this highly pathogenic virus to this unique World Heritage Site could have devastating consequences, similar to those seen following introductions of pathogens into other endemic island faunas. Our model identified the transport of mosquitoes on airplanes as the highest risk for West Nile virus introduction. Pathogen dissemination through avian migration and the transportation of day-old chickens appeared to be less important pathways. Infected humans and mosquitoes transported in sea containers, in tires, or by wind all represented much lower risk. Our risk-assessment framework has broad applicability to other pathogens and other regions and depends only on the availability of data on the transport of goods and animals and the epidemiology of the pathogen.     

The Role of Botanic Gardens in the Science and Practice of Ecological Restoration

Abstract: Many of the skills and resources associated with botanic gardens and arboreta, including plant taxonomy, horticulture, and seed bank management, are fundamental to ecological restoration efforts, yet few of the world's botanic gardens are involved in the science or practice of restoration. Thus, we examined the potential role of botanic gardens in these emerging fields. We believe a reorientation of certain existing institutional strengths, such as plant‐based research and knowledge transfer, would enable many more botanic gardens worldwide to provide effective science‐based support to restoration efforts. We recommend botanic gardens widen research to include ecosystems as well as species, increase involvement in practical restoration projects and training practitioners, and serve as information hubs for data archiving and exchange.     

Regional Decline of an Iconic Amphibian Associated with Elevation,Land‐Use Change,and Invasive Species

Abstract: Ecological theory predicts that species with restricted geographic ranges will have the highest probability of extinction, but species with extensive distributions and high population densities can also exhibit widespread population losses. In the western United States populations of northern leopard frogs (Lithobates pipiens)—historically one of the most widespread frogs in North America—have declined dramatically in abundance and geographic distribution. To assess the status of leopard frogs in Colorado and evaluate causes of decline, we coupled statewide surveys of 196 historically occupied sites with intensive sampling of 274 wetlands stratified by land use. We used an information‐theoretic approach to evaluate the contributions of factors at multiple spatial extents in explaining the contemporary distribution of leopard frogs. Our results indicate leopard frogs have declined in Colorado, but this decline was regionally variable. The lowest proportion of occupied wetlands occurred in eastern Colorado (2–28%), coincident with urban development and colonization by non‐native bullfrogs (Lithobates catesbeianus). Variables at several spatial extents explained observed leopard frog distributional patterns. In low‐elevation wetlands introduced fishes, bullfrogs, and urbanization or suburbanization associated negatively with leopard frog occurrence, whereas wetland area was positively associated with occurrence. Leopard frogs were more abundant and widespread west of the Continental Divide, where urban development and bullfrog abundance were low. Although the pathogenic chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) was not selected in our best‐supported models, the nearly complete extirpation of leopard frogs from montane wetlands could reflect the individual or interactive effects of Bd and climate patterns. Our results highlight the importance of considering multiple, competing hypotheses to explain species declines, particularly when implicated factors operate at different spatial extents.     

A Cross-National Analysis of How Economic Inequality Predicts Biodiversity Loss

Abstract:  We used socioeconomic models that included economic inequality to predict biodiversity loss, measured as the proportion of threatened plant and vertebrate species, across 50 countries. Our main goal was to evaluate whether economic inequality, measured as the Gini index of income distribution, improved the explanatory power of our statistical models. We compared four models that included the following: only population density, economic footprint (i.e., the size of the economy relative to the country area), economic footprint and income inequality (Gini index), and an index of environmental governance. We also tested the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, but it was not supported by the data. Statistical comparisons of the models revealed that the model including both economic footprint and inequality was the best predictor of threatened species. It significantly outperformed population density alone and the environmental governance model according to the Akaike information criterion. Inequality was a significant predictor of biodiversity loss and significantly improved the fit of our models. These results confirm that socioeconomic inequality is an important factor to consider when predicting rates of anthropogenic biodiversity loss.     

Use of Spatial Capture‐Recapture Modeling and DNA Data to Estimate Densities of Elusive Animals

Abstract: Assessment of abundance, survival, recruitment rates, and density (i.e., population assessment) is especially challenging for elusive species most in need of protection (e.g., rare carnivores). Individual identification methods, such as DNA sampling, provide ways of studying such species efficiently and noninvasively. Additionally, statistical methods that correct for undetected animals and account for locations where animals are captured are available to efficiently estimate density and other demographic parameters. We collected hair samples of European wildcat (Felis silvestris) from cheek‐rub lure sticks, extracted DNA from the samples, and identified each animals’ genotype. To estimate the density of wildcats, we used Bayesian inference in a spatial capture‐recapture model. We used WinBUGS to fit a model that accounted for differences in detection probability among individuals and seasons and between two lure arrays. We detected 21 individual wildcats (including possible hybrids) 47 times. Wildcat density was estimated at 0.29/km² (SE 0.06), and 95% of the activity of wildcats was estimated to occur within 1.83 km from their home‐range center. Lures located systematically were associated with a greater number of detections than lures placed in a cell on the basis of expert opinion. Detection probability of individual cats was greatest in late March. Our model is a generalized linear mixed model; hence, it can be easily extended, for instance, to incorporate trap‐ and individual‐level covariates. We believe that the combined use of noninvasive sampling techniques and spatial capture‐recapture models will improve population assessments, especially for rare and elusive animals.     

Using Parasitic Trematode Larvae to Quantify an Elusive Vertebrate Host

Abstract: Digenean trematode parasites require multiple host species to complete their life cycles, and their abundance can often be strongly correlated with the abundance of their host species. Species richness and abundance of parasites in easily sampled host species may yield an accurate estimate of the species richness and abundance of other hosts in a parasite's life cycle that are difficult to survey directly. Accordingly, we investigated whether prevalence and mean abundance of trematodes could be used to estimate the abundance of one of their host species, diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin), which are difficult to sample and are designated as near threatened (by the International Union for Conservation of Nature [IUCN Red List]) along some U.S. coasts. As an adult the trematode Pleurogonius malaclemys is specific to terrapins. Its larval stages live first inside mud snails (Ilyanassa obsoleta) and are subsequently shed into the environment where they form external metacercarial cysts on hard surfaces such as snail opercula. The life cycle of P. malaclemys is completed when terrapins ingest these cysts. At 12 sites along the coast of Georgia (U.S.A.), we determined the prevalence of internal P. malaclemys larvae in mud snails (proportion of infected snails in a population) and the prevalence and mean abundance of external trematode cysts. We examined whether these data were correlated with terrapin abundance, which we estimated with mark‐recapture methods. The abundance of external cysts and salinity explained ≥59% of the variability in terrapin abundance. We suggest that dependent linkages between the life stages of multihost parasites make them reliable predictors of host species’ abundance, including hosts with abundances that are challenging to quantify directly.     

Modeling Abundance Index Data from Anuran Calling Surveys

Abstract:  Evaluation of anuran populations is commonly based on calling surveys that report categorical abundance index data. I present a statistical model for abundance index data that are observations representing ordered abundance classes (e.g., none, some, many). The proposed model provides a formal treatment of detection probability, factors that affect detection, and variation in abundance. The model can be viewed as a generalization of that proposed by MacKenzie et al. (2002) for estimating site-occupancy rates in that it allows for more than two abundance classes. Because the abundance distribution is characterized by multiple abundance classes, it may be more sensitive to subtle changes in the underlying abundance that may go undetected with simple occupancy estimates under which sites are characterized merely as occupied or not. The method is most immediately applicable to surveys of anurans in which index data related to the intensity of calling activity are collected. I applied the proposed method to calling index data from the green frog (  Rana clamitans ) collected as part of the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program. The best model indicated considerable variation in detectability over time and in response to temperature. The resulting adjusted (for detectability) abundance-state distribution demonstrates the negative bias in abundance state obtained from simplistic summaries of calling index data that disregard these sources of variation in detectability.     

The Population Dynamics and Conservation of Primate Populations

Abstract: Primates are among the most threatened taxa, with more than half of all species in jeopardy. In this paper we develop population models to use the kind of data on wild primates that primatologists actually collect. Our survey of recentprimate journals suggests that the average field study uses 1.5 years of data from 50 animals The models are based on the simple Leslie-Lefkovitch matrix. They suggest a simple method that allows assessment from a few years'data, of whether a population is collapsing and requires intervention To a good approximation, populations will collapse when adult survival, per inter-birth interval, is less than 70 percent.
Modifications of the basic model incorporate more realistic assumptions about social organization and densitydependent resource limitation. These allow us to identify population densities at which potential Allee effects operate, and permit more precise estimates of the minimum population sizes and compositions required for successful reintroductions to the wild The most important result is that populations of primates that live in small family groups may be more prone to "demographic" extinction than are more promiscuous species that live in more extended groups.