Regional Ontogeny of New England Salt Marsh Die‐Off

Coastal areas are among the world's most productive and highly affected ecosystems. Centuries of human activity on coastlines have led to overexploitation of marine predators, which in turn has led to cascading ecosystem‐level effects. Human effects and approaches to mediating them, however, differ regionally due to gradients in biotic and abiotic factors. Salt marsh die‐off on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), triggered by a recreational‐fishing‐induced trophic cascade that has released herbivorous crabs from predator control, has been ongoing since 1976. Similar salt marsh die‐offs have been reported in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay (U.S.A.), but the driving mechanism of these die‐offs has not been examined. We used field experiments to assess trophic interactions and historical reconstructions of 24 New England marshes to test the hypotheses that recreational fishing and predator depletion are a regional trigger of salt marsh die‐off in New England and that die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are more recent than those on Cape Cod. Predator depletion was the general trigger of marsh die‐off and explained differences in herbivorous crab abundance and the severity of die‐off across regions. Die‐offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are following a trajectory similar to die‐off on Cape Cod, but are approximately 20 years behind those on Cape Cod. As a result, die‐off currently affects 31.2% (SE 2.2) of low‐marsh areas in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay, less than half the severity of die‐off on Cape Cod. Our results contribute to the growing evidence that recreational fishing is an increasing threat to coastal ecosystems and that studying the effects of human activity at regional scales can provide insight into local effects and aid in early detection and potential remediation. Ontogenia Regional de un Incremento en la Mortandad en una Marisma Salada de Nueva Inglaterra     

Floodplain Rehabilitation as a Hedge against Hydroclimatic Uncertainty in a Migration Corridor of Threatened Steelhead

A strategy for recovering endangered species during climate change is to restore ecosystem processes that moderate effects of climate shifts. In mid‐latitudes, storm patterns may shift their intensity, duration, and frequency. These shifts threaten flooding in human communities and reduce migration windows (conditions suitable for migration after a storm) for fish. Rehabilitation of historic floodplains can in principle reduce these threats via transient storage of storm water, but no one has quantified the benefit of floodplain rehabilitation for migrating fish, a widespread biota with conservation and economic value. We used simple models to quantify migration opportunity for a threatened migratory fish, steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), in an episodic rain‐fed river system, the Pajaro River in central California. We combined flow models, bioenergetic models, and existing climate projections to estimate the sensitivity of migration windows to altered storm patterns under alternate scenarios of floodplain rehabilitation. Generally, migration opportunities were insensitive to warming, weakly sensitive to duration or intensity of storms, and proportionately sensitive to frequency of storms. The rehabilitation strategy expanded migration windows by 16–28% regardless of climate outcomes. Warmer conditions raised the energy cost of migrating, but not enough to matter biologically. Novel findings were that fewer storms appeared to pose a bigger threat to migrating steelhead than warmer or smaller storms and that floodplain rehabilitation lessened the risk from fewer or smaller storms across all plausible hydroclimatic outcomes. It follows that statistical downscaling methods may mischaracterize risk, depending on how they resolve overall precipitation shifts into changes of storm frequency as opposed to storm size. Moreover, anticipating effects of climate shifts that are irreducibly uncertain (here, rainfall) may be more important than anticipating effects of relatively predictable changes such as warming. This highlights a need to credibly identify strategies of ecosystem rehabilitation that are robust to uncertainty. Rehabilitación de Planicies Inundables como Cerco contra la Incertidumbre Hidroclimática en un Corredor Migratorio de Oncorhynchus mykiss, Especie Amenazada     

Effectiveness of Predator Removal for Enhancing Bird Populations

Abstract: Predation pressure on vulnerable bird species has made predator control an important issue for international nature conservation. Predator removal by culling or translocation is controversial, expensive, and time‐consuming, and results are often temporary. Thus, it is important to assess its effectiveness from all available evidence. We used explicit systematic review methodology to determine the impact of predator removal on four measurable responses in birds: breeding performance (hatching success and fledging success) and population size (breeding and postbreeding). We used meta‐analysis to summarize results from 83 predator removal studies from six continents. We also investigated whether characteristics of the prey, predator species, location, and study methodology explained heterogeneity in effect sizes. Removing predators increased hatching success, fledging success, and breeding populations. Removing all predator species achieved a significantly larger increase in breeding population than removing only a subset. Postbreeding population size was not improved on islands, or overall, but did increase on mainlands. Heterogeneity in effect sizes for the four population parameters was not explained by whether predators were native or introduced; prey were declining, migratory, or game species; or by the study methodology. Effect sizes for fledging success were smaller for ground‐nesting birds than those that nest elsewhere, but the difference was not significant. We conclude that current evidence indicates that predator removal is an effective strategy for the conservation of vulnerable bird populations. Nevertheless, the ethical and practical problems associated with predator removal may lead managers to favor alternative, nonlethal solutions. Research is needed to provide and synthesize data to determine whether these are effective management practices for future policies on bird conservation.     

Site‐Occupancy Distribution Modeling to Correct Population‐Trend Estimates Derived from Opportunistic Observations

Abstract: Species’ assessments must frequently be derived from opportunistic observations made by volunteers (i.e., citizen scientists). Interpretation of the resulting data to estimate population trends is plagued with problems, including teasing apart genuine population trends from variations in observation effort. We devised a way to correct for annual variation in effort when estimating trends in occupancy (species distribution) from faunal or floral databases of opportunistic observations. First, for all surveyed sites, detection histories (i.e., strings of detection–nondetection records) are generated. Within‐season replicate surveys provide information on the detectability of an occupied site. Detectability directly represents observation effort; hence, estimating detectablity means correcting for observation effort. Second, site‐occupancy models are applied directly to the detection‐history data set (i.e., without aggregation by site and year) to estimate detectability and species distribution (occupancy, i.e., the true proportion of sites where a species occurs). Site‐occupancy models also provide unbiased estimators of components of distributional change (i.e., colonization and extinction rates). We illustrate our method with data from a large citizen‐science project in Switzerland in which field ornithologists record opportunistic observations. We analyzed data collected on four species: the widespread Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) and Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) and the scarce Rock Thrush (Monticola saxatilis) and Wallcreeper (Tichodroma muraria). Our method requires that all observed species are recorded. Detectability was <1 and varied over the years. Simulations suggested some robustness, but we advocate recording complete species lists (checklists), rather than recording individual records of single species. The representation of observation effort with its effect on detectability provides a solution to the problem of differences in effort encountered when extracting trend information from haphazard observations. We expect our method is widely applicable for global biodiversity monitoring and modeling of species distributions.     

ESTIMATING THE LOCAL COST OF PROTECTING KOSHI TAPPU WILDLIFE RESERVE, NEPAL: A CONTINGENT VALUATION APPROACH

We estimate the compensation required by the local communities to forego access to the natural resources within the Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve (KTWR), Nepal using the contingent valuation method (CVM). In addition to contributing a CVM application from a seldom studied location to the literature, this case illustrates the sensitivity of WTA estimates to the analytical technique adopted. We analyze households’ willingness to accept (WTA) compensation using Tobit and double-hurdle regression models that account for the censored distribution of WTA and nested yes/no decision implicit in the WTA responses. The average WTA of a household residing in the vicinity of KTWR is estimated to be US $238, which amounts to nearly $ 1.64 million for the neighboring region. The results provide a basis to address local people’s concerns in the process of sustainable management of natural resources and wetland ecosystems in KTWR, Nepal.     

Effects of Human Trampling on Populations of Soil Fauna in the McMurdo Dry Valleys,Antarctica

Abstract: Antarctic ecosystems are often considered nearly pristine because levels of anthropogenic disturbance are extremely low there. Nevertheless, over recent decades there has been a rapid increase in the number of people, researchers and tourists, visiting Antarctica. We evaluated, over 10 years, the direct impact of foot traffic on the abundance of soil animals and soil properties in Taylor Valley within the McMurdo Dry Valleys region of Antarctica. We compared soils from minimally disturbed areas with soils from nearby paths that received intermediate and high levels of human foot traffic (i.e., up to approximately 80 passes per year). The nematodes Scottnema lindsayae and Eudorylaimus sp. were the most commonly found animal species, whereas rotifers and tardigrades were found only occasionally. On the highly trampled footpaths, abundance of S. lindsayae and Eudorylaimus sp. was up to 52 and 76% lower, respectively, than in untrampled areas. Moreover, reduction in S. lindsayae abundance was more pronounced after 10 years than 2 years and in the surface soil than in the deeper soil, presumably because of the longer period of disturbance and the greater level of physical disturbance experienced by the surface soil. The ratio of living to dead Eudorylaimus sp. also declined with increased trampling intensity, which is indicative of increased mortality or reduced fecundity. At one site there was evidence that high levels of trampling reduced soil CO₂ fluxes, which is related to total biological activity in the soil. Our results show that even low levels of human traffic can significantly affect soil biota in this ecosystem and may alter ecosystem processes, such as carbon cycling. Consequently, management and conservation plans for Antarctic soils should consider the high sensitivity of soil fauna to physical disturbance as human presence in this ecosystem increases.