The context and habits of accident investigation practices: A study of 108 Swedish investigators

The context and habits of accident investigation practices were explored by means of questionnaire data obtained from accident investigators in the healthcare, transportation, nuclear and rescue sectors in Sweden. Issues explored included; resources, training, time spent in different phases of an investigation, methods and procedures, beliefs about causes to accidents, communication issues, etc. Examples of findings were: differences in the extent to which the ‘human factor’ was perceived as a dominant cause to accidents; manning resources to support investigations were perceived as rather scarce; underutilization of data from safety related processes such as risk analysis and auditing data; the phase of suggesting remedial actions (recommendations) were comparatively brief and generally not well supported. A majority of the investigators thought that the investigations were free from pressures to follow a specific direction; the investigators also thought that performing an investigation in itself (regardless of the specific results) had positive influences on safety. A majority of the investigators thought that upper management had a relatively strong influence on safety in the organizations. The results are discussed in terms of suggestions for strategies to strengthen investigation practices – particularly those conducted as part-time work in organizations.     

Status and trends in Arctic vegetation: Evidence from experimental warming and long-term monitoring

Changes in Arctic vegetation can have important implications for trophic interactions and ecosystem functioning leading to climate feedbacks. Plot-based vegetation surveys provide detailed insight into vegetation changes at sites around the Arctic and improve our ability to predict the impacts of environmental change on tundra ecosystems. Here, we review studies of changes in plant community composition and phenology from both long-term monitoring and warming experiments in Arctic environments. We find that Arctic plant communities and species are generally sensitive to warming, but trends over a period of time are heterogeneous and complex and do not always mirror expectations based on responses to experimental manipulations. Our findings highlight the need for more geographically widespread, integrated, and comprehensive monitoring efforts that can better resolve the interacting effects of warming and other local and regional ecological factors.     

A tiered ecological risk assessment of three chlorophenols in Chinese surface waters

Introduction

The ecological risks posed by three chlorophenols (CPs), 2,4-dichlorophenol (2,4-DCP), 2,4,6-trichlorophenol (2,4,6-TCP), and pentachlorophenol (PCP) in Chinese surface waters were assessed.

Materials and methods

This was achieved by applying a tiered ecological risk assessment (ERA) approach ranging from deterministic methods to probabilistic options to measured concentrations of CPs in surface water of seven major watersheds and three drainage regions in China and the chronic toxicity data for indigenous Chinese species.

Results and discussion

The results show that the risks of three chlorophenols are ranked PCP>2,4-DCP??2,4,6-TCP. PCP posed little ecological risk while 2,4-DCP and 2,4,6-TCP posed negligible or de minimis risk in Chinese surface water. However, the risks varied with different river basins, for example, PCP posed some ecological risk in the Yangtze, Huaihe, and Pearl Rivers. The magnitude of 2,4-DCP and 2,4,6-TCP pollution in North China was more serious than that in South China.

Conclusion

The probabilistic risk assessment approach, which can provide more information for risk managers and decision makers, was favored over the screening-level single-value estimate method. However, the results from all tiers of the ERA methods in the framework were consistent with each other.     

What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find – The consequences of underlying accident models in eight accident investigation manuals

Accident investigation manuals are influential documents on various levels in a safety management system, and it is therefore important to appraise them in the light of what we currently know – or assume – about the nature of accidents. Investigation manuals necessarily embody or represent an accident model, i.e., a set of assumptions about how accidents happen and what the important factors are. In this paper we examine three aspects of accident investigation as described in a number of investigation manuals. Firstly, we focus on accident models and in particular the assumptions about how different factors interact to cause – or prevent – accidents, i.e., the accident “mechanisms”. Secondly, we focus on the scope in the sense of the factors (or factor domains) that are considered in the models – for instance (hu)man, technology, and organization (MTO). Thirdly, we focus on the system of investigation or the activities that together constitute an accident investigation project/process. We found that the manuals all used complex linear models. The factors considered were in general (hu)man, technology, organization, and information. The causes found during an investigation reflect the assumptions of the accident model, following the ‘What-You-Look-For-Is-What-You-Find’ or WYLFIWYF principle. The identified causes typically became specific problems to be fixed during an implementation of solutions. This follows what can be called ‘What-You-Find-Is-What-You-Fix’ or WYFIWYF principle.     

Using Canonical Correlation Analysis to Identify Environmental Attitude Groups: Considerations for National Forest Planning in the Southwestern U.S.

As public land management agencies pursue region-specific resource management plans, with meaningful consideration of public attitudes and values, there is a need to characterize the complex mix of environmental attitudes in a diverse population. The contribution of this investigation is to make use of a unique household, mail/internet survey data set collected in 2007 in the Southwestern United States (Region 3 of the U.S. Forest Service). With over 5,800 survey responses to a set of 25 Public Land Value statements, canonical correlation analysis is able to identify 7 statistically distinct environmental attitudinal groups. We also examine the effect of expected changes in regional demographics on overall environmental attitudes, which may help guide in the development of socially acceptable long-term forest management policies. Results show significant support for conservationist management policies and passive environmental values, as well as a greater role for stakeholder groups in generating consensus for current and future forest management policies.     

Life history benefits of residency in a partially migrating pond-breeding amphibian

Species with partial migration, where a portion of a population migrates and the other remains residential, provide the opportunity to evaluate conditions for migration and test mechanisms influencing migratory decisions. We conducted a five-year study of two populations of red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens), composed of individuals that either remain as residents in the breeding pond over the winter or migrate to the terrestrial habitat. We used multistate mark-recapture methods to (1) test for differences in survival probability between migrants and residents, (2) determine if migrants breed every year or skip opportunities for reproduction, and (3) estimate the frequency of individuals switching migratory tactic. We used estimates of life history parameters from the natural populations in combination with previous experimental work to evaluate processes maintaining partial migration at the population level and to assess mechanisms influencing the decision to migrate. Based on capture-recapture information on over 3000 individuals, we found that newts can switch migratory tactics over their lifetime. We conclude that migrants and residents coexist through conditional asymmetries, with residents having higher fitness and inferior individuals adopting the migrant tactic. We found that newts are more likely to switch from residency to migrating than the reverse and males were more likely to remain as residents. Migration differences between the sexes are likely driven by reproduction benefits of residency for males and high energetic costs of breeding resulting in lower breeding frequencies for females. Environmental conditions also influence partial migration within a population; we found support for density-dependent processes in the pond strongly influencing the probability of migrating. Our work illustrates how migration can be influenced by a complex range of individual and environmental factors and enhances our understanding of the conditions necessary for the evolution and maintenance of partial migration within populations.     

An evaluation of environmental factors affecting species distributions

Many different models can be built to explain the distributions of species. Often there is no single model that is clearly better than the alternatives, and this leads to uncertainty over which environmental factors are limiting species’ distributions. We investigated the support for different environmental factors by determining the drop in model performance when selected predictors were excluded from the model building process. We used a paired t-test over 37 plant species so that an environmental factor was only deemed significant if it consistently improved the results for multiple species. Geology and winter minimum temperatures were found to be the environmental factors with the most support, with a significant drop in model performance when either of these factors was excluded. However, there was less support for summer maximum temperature, as other environmental factors could combine to produce similar model performance. Our method of evaluating environmental factors using multiple species will not be capable of detecting predictors that are only important for one or two species, but it is difficult to distinguish these from spurious correlations. The strength of the method is that it increases inference for factors that consistently affect the distributions of many species. We discourage the assessment of models against predefined benchmarks, such as an area under the curve (AUC) of more than 0.7, as many alternative models for the same species produce similar results. Therefore, the benchmarks do not provide any indication of how the performance of the selected model compares to alternative models, and they provide weak inference to accept any selected model.     

Volunteer monitoring of E. coli in streams of the upper Midwestern United States: a comparison of methods

Fecal contamination of water is a public health concern for those using the water for drinking or recreation. The EPA recommends using Escherichia coli to evaluate recreational freshwaters for fecal contamination. With limited resources available, states have recently focused on training volunteers to expand data collection and resource assessment. Several bacteria testing methods are available for use by the public; however, few studies have comprehensively evaluated their use by volunteers. This study evaluated two E. coli monitoring methods used by volunteers: Coliscan Easygel® and 3M^TM Petrifilm^TM, incubated for 24 and 48 hours. The methods were assessed to determine how closely each matched results with EPA-approved laboratory analyses. Analysis of covariance results indicated that when used by volunteers to monitor surface water, 3M^TM Petrifilm^TM results were more similar to laboratory analyses than Coliscan Easygel®. Both test methods had similar overall accuracy of predicting if a sample exceeded or fell below the 235 cfu/100 mL EPA body contact standard for recreational surface waters. Two-thirds of volunteers preferred 3M^TM Petrifilm^TM.     

一种监测波罗的海长期传输变化的新方法

在地磁场中直接测量海水电导变化而产生的势能可以用来估算海洋通量.为了评估监测波罗的海气候的可行性,按照上述原理在瑞典沿岸建立了若干临时观测系统.本文给出了此类观测的一些结果,并且对在该领域开展进一步的工作做了展望.     

Sustainable development in the Baltic sea region. Governance beyond the nation state

After the end of the Cold War, the Baltic Sea Region (BSR) developed into a highly dynamic area of cross-border cooperation and transnational networking. Three forms of governance beyond the nation state and appropriate case studies are presented here: (1) the Helsinki Convention as an international regime; (2) Baltic 21, the world's first regional Agenda 21, as an international policy network; (3) the Union of the Baltic Cities (UBC) as a transnational network. The achievement of sustainable development in the BSR undoubtedly requires a fruitful combination of national governance and these forms of international and transnational governance. In this respect, international policy networks, such as Baltic 21, and transnational networks, such as the UBC, promise to provide new approaches that can complement international and intergovernmental cooperation between nation states. Furthermore, it must also be taken into account that governance in the BSR will soon become embedded in European governance and lead to the Europeanisation of the Baltic Sea Area.