Estimating contaminant mass discharge: a field comparison of the multilevel point measurement and the integral pumping investigation approaches and their uncertainties

In this field study, two approaches to assess contaminant mass discharge were compared: the sampling of multilevel wells (MLS) and the integral groundwater investigation (or integral pumping test, IPT) that makes use of the concentration-time series obtained from pumping wells. The MLS approached used concentrations, hydraulic conductivity and gradient rather than direct chemical flux measurements, while the IPT made use of a simplified analytical inversion. The two approaches were applied at a control plane located approximately 40m downgradient of a gasoline source at Canadian Forces Base Borden, Ontario, Canada. The methods yielded similar estimates of the mass discharging across the control plane. The sources of uncertainties in the mass discharge in each approach were evaluated, including the uncertainties inherent in the underlying assumptions and procedures. The maximum uncertainty of the MLS method was about 67%, and about 28% for the IPT method in this specific field situation. For the MLS method, the largest relative uncertainty (62%) was attributed to the limited sampling density (0.63 points/m(2)), through a novel comparison with a denser sampling grid nearby. A five-fold increase of the sampling grid density would have been required to reduce the overall relative uncertainty for the MLS method to about the same level as that for the IPT method. Uncertainty in the complete coverage of the control plane provided the largest relative uncertainty (37%) in the IPT method. While MLS or IPT methods to assess contaminant mass discharge are attractive assessment tools, the large relative uncertainty in either method found for this reasonable well monitored and simple aquifer suggests that results in more complex plumes in more heterogeneous aquifers should be viewed with caution.     

Comparing universal kriging and land-use regression for predicting concentrations of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) for the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.     

Support for maternal manipulation of developmental nutrition in a facultatively eusocial bee, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Megalopta genalis</Emphasis> (Halictidae)

Developmental maternal effects are a potentially important source of phenotypic variation, but they can be difficult to distinguish from other environmental factors. This is an important distinction within the context of social evolution, because if variation in offspring helping behavior is due to maternal manipulation, social selection may act on maternal phenotypes, as well as those of offspring. Factors correlated with social castes have been linked to variation in developmental nutrition, which might provide opportunity for females to manipulate the social behavior of their offspring. Megalopta genalis is a mass-provisioning facultatively eusocial sweat bee for which production of males and females in social and solitary nests is concurrent and asynchronous. Female offspring may become either gynes (reproductive dispersers) or workers (non-reproductive helpers). We predicted that if maternal manipulation plays a role in M. genalis caste determination, investment in daughters should vary more than for sons. The mass and protein content of pollen stores provided to female offspring varied significantly more than those of males, but volume and sugar content did not. Sugar content varied more among female eggs in social nests than in solitary nests. Provisions were larger, with higher nutrient content, for female eggs and in social nests. Adult females and males show different patterns of allometry, and their investment ratio ranged from 1.23 to 1.69. Adult body weight varied more for females than males, possibly reflecting increased variation in maternal investment in female offspring. These differences are consistent with a role for maternal manipulation in the social plasticity observed in M. genalis.     

Assessment of health risk associated with persistent organic pollutants in water

This paper presents the results of analyses of water samples taken from water intakes supplying one of the districts located near the city of Wroc?aw. Surprisingly high concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls and chloroorganic pesticides, classified as persistent organic pollutants (POPs), were detected in the monitored sites. Basing on the analytical and toxicological data, the individual health risks related to carcinogenic effects (excess cancer risk over a lifetime) in humans were assessed, resulting from direct ingestion of community water. Also noncarcinogenic effects resulting from exposure to the examined POPs were determined. The conservative approach to risk assessment, taking into account a safety margin for data incompleteness, was adopted. The carcinogenic risk was found to slightly exceed the unconditionally acceptable risk of 10^?6 in the case of polychlorinated biphenyls and hexachlorocyclohexane, for all the inhabitant populations. The determined values of noncarcinogenic effects expressed by hazard quotient and hazard index indicate that the water pollutants and their concentrations do not cause an increase in noncarcinogenic incidences in the inhabitants using the monitored water sources.     

Social Planning for Mall Redevelopment: an Australian case-study

This paper provides a case study of recent work undertaken in Melbourne relating to a mall re-development project. It begins by discussing the nature of shopping centres as sites of consumption and non-commercial social activities. It then describes planning and development strategies that provide innovative and socially progressive interventions in regard to the social, physical and regulatory environments of public malls. The importance of seeing such sites as 'community spaces', of promoting activities on the basis of social inclusion, of creating a safe, convivial atmosphere, and of establishing low-key friendly sorts of mall management, are highlighted.     

Land Conversion for Suburban Housing: A Study of Urbanization Around Warsaw and Olsztyn,Poland

In Poland of the 1990s, urban demand for housing land around city agglomerations increased rapidly. The decreasing profitability of agricultural production also caused farmers to become interested in the sale of agricultural land for nonagricultural purposes, and new land legislation granted them the right to sell their land. Polish counties simultaneously received self-governing status, which allowed them to define the priorities for local development. Counties received additional responsibility for land management and quickly demonstrated strong support for land conversion, which was perceived as a factor of local development. This paper argues that decentralization and the extension of private control over land have led to a loss of rural landscapes in Poland because farmers, county governments, and rural society in general gained from the conversion of agricultural to housing land. Rapid urbanization has significantly reduced the availability of open space around cities and threatened valuable landscapes, for it has occurred in the absence of environmental safeguards. This paper reports findings from research in two counties, located in regions with diverse economic growth rates. Decentralization is particularly problematic if tax regulations and intergovernmental fiscal relations reward local authorities for urbanization but not environmental protection. Note: This version was published online in June 2005 with the cover date of August 2004.     

Conflict of interest related to clinical practice is underreported: The case of noninvasive prenatal testing

Authors of policy statements from the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists and from the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine do not acknowledge the potential for their clinical income to influence their opinions, or the positions of the societies they represent. These policy statements were published in Obstetrics and Gynecology and the American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, again, without acknowledgment of the potential for conflict of interest. The case of noninvasive prenatal testing, which has threatened the role of maternal-fetal medicine in the practice of prenatal screening and diagnosis, and has significantly reduced the demand for invasive prenatal diagnosis, illustrates the importance of identifying this potential conflict.