Estimating the value of foresight: aggregate analysis of natural hazard mitigation benefits and costs

Hazard mitigation planners claim that foresighted present actions and investments produce significant future benefits. However, they have difficulty in supporting their claims, since previously their evidence typically was derived from individual case studies. Constituents and decision makers are often sceptical, believing that individual cases are either inapplicable to their situation or non-randomly selected to support a particular view. Planners need objective evidence based on a large body of experience to support the case for mitigation. Such is the unique contribution of a recent U.S. study that found that each dollar spent in three federal natural hazard mitigation grant programs (the Hazard Mitigation Grant Program, Project Impact, and the Flood Mitigation Assistance Program) saves society an average of $4 in future avoided losses. Complementing the aggregate benefit-cost analysis with community-based evaluations, the study yielded insights on how planners can improve long-term community resilience in the face of extreme events. Valuable lessons for mitigation planners and policy makers emerged: the need to consider a wide variety of losses, the importance of mixing qualitative with quantitative analysis, the value of averaging results over a large number of projects, and the need to more explicitly address social issues and data collection in order to reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience to cope with twenty-first century hazards.     

Tributary Plunging in an Urban Lake (Onondaga Lake): Drivers,Signatures, and Implications1

Abstract: A combination of long‐term fixed‐frequency and robotic monitoring information for a polluted urban lake, Onondaga Lake, New York, and two of its tributaries is used to resolve the propensity for, and occurrences of, tributary plunging. Cooler temperatures (T) and higher salinity (S) are primarily responsible for the elevated density and plunging of one of these polluted streams for the summer through early fall interval. In‐lake transport of this plunging tributary, which receives inputs from combined sewer overflows (CSOs), is tracked by its high S during dry weather, its high turbidity (T_n) with associated lower S (dilution with rainwater) following runoff events, and by its characteristic ionic composition. These signatures are documented extending from the creek mouth, through a connecting navigation channel, through the inflow zone of the lake, and into metalimnetic depths of pelagic portions of the lake. The entry of this polluted tributary below the depth interval(s) of primary production and contact recreation has important implications for the ongoing major rehabilitation program for this lake. The plunging phenomenon diminishes the benefits previously expected for related features of the lake’s water quality from ongoing management efforts to abate CSO inputs and reduce nonpoint nutrient loading from the tributary. Previously this tributary tended to instead enter the upper layers of the lake during the operation of an adjoining soda ash manufacturing facility (closure in 1986), as a result of high lake S caused by the industry’s ionic waste discharge.     

A happiness Kuznets curve? Using model-based cluster analysis to group countries based on happiness,development, income,and carbon emissions

This exploratory study uses model-based cluster analysis to group sixty-one countries based on statistical similarities in terms of happiness, development, income, and carbon emissions. Model-based cluster analysis is appropriate for an initial identification of a pattern that is worthy of further investigation. A key finding is that there may be a Kuznets curve for happiness. The Kuznets curve graphs the proposition that, as an economy develops, economic inequality first increases and then decreases. Similarly, the authors find that clusters of countries at the extremes of the lowest and highest average levels of development and income have the highest self-reported levels of happiness. Clusters of countries in the middle of the development and income spectrum have the comparatively lowest average levels of happiness. Further, carbon emissions are not perfectly associated with happiness. For example, between two clusters with the highest average levels of development, income, and happiness there is a 43 % difference in carbon emissions. A highly developed cluster has roughly the same mean carbon emissions as a cluster with 83 % less income, and the least developed cluster has 93 % of the happiness as the most developed cluster yet 86 % less carbon emissions. Despite limitations of both data and methodology, the overall pattern—that there may be a happiness Kuznets curve and that development, income, and carbon emissions are not associated lockstep with happiness—contributes to the literature on decoupling development from growth in emissions.     

The diversity of gendered adaptation strategies to climate change of Indian farmers: A feminist intersectional approach

This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change.     

Accounting for both local aquatic community composition and bioavailability in setting site-specific quality standards for zinc

Recent years have seen considerable improvement in water quality standards (QS) for metals by taking account of the effect of local water chemistry conditions on their bioavailability. We describe preliminary efforts to further refine water quality standards, by taking account of the composition of the local ecological community (the ultimate protection objective) in addition to bioavailability. Relevance of QS to the local ecological community is critical as it is important to minimise instances where quality classification using QS does not reconcile with a quality classification based on an assessment of the composition of the local ecology (e.g. using benthic macroinvertebrate quality assessment metrics such as River InVertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS)), particularly where ecology is assessed to be at good or better status, whilst chemical quality is determined to be failing relevant standards. The alternative approach outlined here describes a method to derive a site-specific species sensitivity distribution (SSD) based on the ecological community which is expected to be present at the site in the absence of anthropogenic pressures (reference conditions). The method combines a conventional laboratory ecotoxicity dataset normalised for bioavailability with field measurements of the response of benthic macroinvertebrate abundance to chemical exposure. Site-specific QS_ref are then derived from the 5%ile of this SSD. Using this method, site QS_ref have been derived for zinc in an area impacted by historic mining activities. Application of QS_ref can result in greater agreement between chemical and ecological metrics of environmental quality compared with the use of either conventional (QS_con) or bioavailability-based QS (QS_bio). In addition to zinc, the approach is likely to be applicable to other metals and possibly other types of chemical stressors (e.g. pesticides). However, the methodology for deriving site-specific targets requires additional development and validation before they can be robustly applied during surface water classification.     

Investigation of insecticide leaching from potted nursery stock and aquatic health benefits of bioretention cells receiving nursery runoff

Tree nurseries and greenhouses within the USDA red imported fire ant (RIFA) quarantine zone are required to incorporate insecticides into their potting media to prevent artificial spread of RIFA. Bifenthrin and fipronil are two common insecticides that are incorporated into potting media. During irrigation and stormwater events, there is potential for insecticides to leach from nursery pots, resulting in the contamination of nearby surface waters. In this study, occurrences of insecticides in simulated nursery runoff were compared with two irrigation strategies and two types of containers in single pot leaching and field runoff simulations. In addition, toxicity of pot leachate to the aquatic invertebrate, Hyallela azteca, was measured, and removal efficiencies of insecticides from bioretention cell media were evaluated. Overhead irrigation resulted in significantly higher concentrations than drip irrigation, and RootMaker® pots allowed more leaching as compared to standard slick-wall pots. However, in all tests, the average concentration of bifenthrin during 15 days of leaching in both pot and field simulations was greater than 200 ng/L; more than 100-fold greater than the LC₅₀ for H. azteca. Toxicity studies confirmed this level of toxicity. Higher amounts of compost, 20 and 40 %, in bioretention cell media resulted in greater percent reduction of both bifenthrin and fipronil. This study determined that management techniques may be able to limit the amount of insecticide that leaches from pots and runs off to receiving water bodies. Specifically, the selection of appropriate pot types, irrigation strategies, or filtering runoff through bioretention cells may reduce contamination loads. Thus, further best management strategies such as the use of bioretention cells are needed in nursery and greenhouse facilities to prevent surface water runoff from transporting toxic insecticides.     

Terrestrial and aquatic ecotoxicity assessment of Cr(VI) by the ReCiPe method calculation (LCIA): application on an old industrial contaminated site

The most stable forms of chromium in the environment are chromium (III) and chromium (VI), the former being relatively immobile and necessary for organisms, and the latter being highly soluble and toxic. It is thus important to characterise ecotoxicological impacts of Cr(VI). However, there are still some important uncertainties in the calculation of ecotoxicological impacts of heavy metals in the LCIA global approach. The aim of this paper is to understand how the spatial and dynamic characterization of life cycle inventory (LCI) data can be exploited in life cycle impact assessment and particularly for the evaluation of the aquatic and terrestrial ecotoxicity of Cr(VI). To quantify these impacts, we studied an industrial waste landfill in the North of France that was contaminated with chromium. On the polluted area, the aquatic contamination is due to the slag heap as well as to chromium spots in soil. The soil contamination is mainly due to infiltration of chromium from the infill. The concentration of Cr(VI) in soil and water varies according to seasonal climatic variations and groundwater level. These variations have an effect on the Cr(VI) fate factor, in particular on transfer and residence time of the substance. This study underlines the spatial distribution of aquatic ecotoxicity and the temporal variation of freshwater ecotoxicity. We analysed the correlation between precipitation, temperature, concentration and ecotoxicity impact. With regards to the terrestrial ecotoxicity, the study focused on the vertical variation of the ecotoxicity and the major role of the soil layer composition into terrestrial pollution.     

Impact of Zn–Pb mining in the Olkusz ore district on the Permian aquifer (SW Poland)

Long-term extensive mining of Zn–Pb ores in the Olkusz area resulted in significant changes of water table levels and chemical composition of water in all aquifers in this area. Within the Permian aquifer, hydrochemical type of water evolved in two general stages. Short-term effect was freshening in the zones of contact with overlying the Triassic limestones and dolomites. Long-term effect was a change in flow pattern and, as a consequence, an inflow of naturally altered and antropogenically contaminated water from the Triassic aquifer into the Permian complex. This was especially intensive in densely fissured and fault zones. As a result of all these processes, hydrochemical type of water shifted from multi-ion types with various combinations of ions towards higher shares of sulphates, calcium and magnesium.     

Polyaromatic hydrocarbon exposure: an ecological impact ambiguity

Polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) represent a fraction of petroleum hydrocarbons and are currently one of the foremost sources of generating energy in today’s contemporary society. However, evidence highlighted in this review show that PAH pollution, as a result of oil spills, hazardous PAH-contaminated working environments and technologies which do not efficiently utilise fuels, as well as natural sources of emissions (e.g. forest fires) may have significant health implications for all taxa. The extent of damage to organisms from PAH exposure is dependent on numerous factors including degree and type of PAH exposure, nature of the environment contaminated (i.e. terrestrial or aquatic), the ability of an organism to relocate to pristine environments, type and sensitivity of organism to specific hydrocarbon fractions and ability of the organism to metabolise different PAH fractions. The review highlights the fact that studies on the potential damage of PAHs should be carried out using mixtures of hydrocarbons as opposed to individual hydrocarbon fractions due to the scarcity of individual fractions being a sole contaminant. Furthermore, potential damage of PAH-contaminated sites should be assessed using an entire ecological impact outlook of the affected area.