Uncertainty techniques in liquefied natural gas (LNG) dispersion calculations

The dynamic development of the LNG sector increases the risk of major accidents. Uncontrolled releases of LNG during the processes of manufacturing, distribution, storage, and regasification can pose a serious threat to people, facilities, and the environment. Therefore, an important goal is to determine hazard zones and the extent of potential consequences associated with a release of LNG. The key issue is to estimate these with the least level of uncertainty. The largest part of uncertainty comes from the modeling of LNG release sources and performing dispersion calculations. It is connected with the application of different mathematical models, the adoption of a number of simplifying assumptions, approximations, empirical relations, constants, and a lack of knowledge.This paper proposes a general procedure for calculating the release rate and duration time of the LNG release, pool spreading, vaporization, as well as dispersion, taking into consideration the uncertainty. The procedure consists of two parts. The first part concerns the sensitivity analysis to identify the most uncertain parameters of the LNG source term and dispersion models. The second part applies to two techniques used to include the uncertainty aspects of fuzzy sets and the Monte Carlo method for calculating hazard zones. In order to provide a basis for comparison between these two approaches, the shape of the membership functions used in the fuzzy methods are the same as the shape of the probability density function used in the Monte Carlo simulation. The case study, concerning an LNG release, illustrates the application of the proposed techniques.     

Co-occurrence of three types of egg policing in the Norwegian wasp <Emphasis Type="Italic">Dolichovespula norwegica</Emphasis>

In insect societies, workers often try to challenge the reproductive monopoly of the queen by laying their own eggs. Successful worker reproduction, however, is frequently prevented by queen policing or worker policing, whereby either the mother queen or non-reproductive workers selectively kill worker-laid eggs. Recently, a third mechanism—“selfish” worker policing—has also been described in which the workers selectively police worker-laid eggs but also lay eggs themselves. Here, we present results from the monogynous wasp Dolichovespula norwegica, which show that all three kinds of policing—queen policing, worker policing and “selfish” worker policing—co-occur. The net effect of these three kinds of policing collectively favoured the queen’s reproduction, as within 1 day 44% of the worker-laid eggs versus only 8% of the queen-laid eggs were eaten. Of the worker-laid eggs that were killed by workers, approximately two thirds were eaten by the reproductive workers even though these made up only a small proportion, 8%, of the work force. This means that policing workers obtained both direct fitness benefits as well as indirect (inclusive) fitness. In addition, we show that worker policing was carried out by a limited, specialised set of workers that was estimated to constitute approximately one quarter of the whole colony and of which 66% were non-reproductive.     

A Comparison of Data Sets Varying in Spatial Accuracy Used to Predict the Occurrence of Wildlife-Vehicle Collisions

Wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVCs) pose a significant safety and conservation concern in areas where high-traffic roads are situated adjacent to wildlife habitat. Improving transportation safety, accurately planning highway mitigation, and identifying key habitat linkage areas may all depend on the quality of WVC data collection. Two common approaches to describe the location of WVCs are spatially accurate data derived from global positioning systems (GPS) or vehicle odometer measurements and less accurate road-marker data derived from reference points (e.g., mile-markers or landmarks) along the roadside. In addition, there are two common variable types used to predict WVC locations: (1) field-derived, site-specific measurements and (2) geographic information system (GIS)-derived information. It is unclear whether these different approaches produce similar results when attempting to identify and explain the location of WVCs. Our first objective was to determine and compare the spatial error found in road-marker data (in our case the closest mile-marker) and landmark-referenced data. Our second objective was to evaluate the performance of models explaining high- and low-probability WVC locations, using congruent, spatially accurate (<3-m) and road-marker (<800-m) response variables in combination with field- and GIS-derived explanatory variables. Our WVC data sets were comprised of ungulate collisions and were located along five major roads in the central Canadian Rocky Mountains. We found that spatial error (mean ± SD) was higher for WVC data referenced to nearby landmarks (516 ± 808 m) than for data referenced to the closest mile-marker data (401 ± 219 m). The top-performing model using the spatially accurate WVC locations contained all explanatory variable types, whereas GIS-derived variables were only influential in the best road-marker model and the spatially accurate reduced model. Our study showed that spatial error and sample size, using road-marker data for ungulate species, are important to consider for model output interpretation, which will impact the appropriate scale on which to apply modeling results. Using road-marker references <1.6 km or GPS-derived data locations may represent an optimal compromise between data acquisition costs and analytical performance. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Sterilization affects soil organic matter chemistry and bioaccumulation of spiked p,p′-DDE and anthracene by earthworms

Laboratory experiments were conducted to assess the effects of soil sterilization on the bioavailability of spiked p,p′-DDE and anthracene to the earthworms Eisenia fetida and Lumbricus terrestris. Physical and chemical changes to soil organic matter (SOM) induced by sterilization were also studied. Uptake of both compounds added after soil was autoclaved or gamma irradiated increased for E. fetida. Sterilization had no effect on bioaccumulation of p,p′-DDE by L. terrestris, and anthracene uptake increased only in gamma-irradiated soils. Analyses by FT-IR and DSC indicate sterilization alters SOM chemistry and may reduce pollutant sorption. Chemical changes to SOM were tentatively linked to changes in bioaccumulation, although the effects were compound and species specific. Artifacts produced by sterilization could lead to inaccurate risk assessments of contaminated sites if assumptions derived from studies carried out in sterilized soil are used. Ultimately, knowledge of SOM chemistry could aid predictions of bioaccumulation of organic pollutants.     

Hydrologic and Water Quality Functions of a Disturbed Wetland in an Agricultural Setting1

Abstract: In 2006, we collected flow, sediment, and phosphorus (P) data at stream locations upstream and downstream of a small degraded wetland in south‐central Wisconsin traversed by a stream draining a predominantly agricultural watershed. The amount of sediment that left the wetland in the two largest storms, which accounted for 96% of the exported sediment during the observation period, was twice the amount that entered the wetland, even though only 50% of the wetland had been inundated. This apparently anomalous result is due to erosion of sediment that had accumulated in the low‐gradient channel and to the role of drainage ditches, which trapped sediment during the wetland‐filling phase. In the case of total P, the inflow to the wetland approximately equaled the outflow, although the wetland sequestered 30% of the incoming dissolved reactive P. The discrepancy is almost certainly due to net export of sediment. Many wetlands in the glaciated midwestern United States are ditched and traversed by low‐gradient channels draining predominantly agricultural areas, so the processes observed in this wetland are likely to be common in that region. Knowledge of this behavior presents opportunities to improve water quality in this and similar regions.     

Evaluation of the impacts of mine drainage from a coal waste pile on the surrounding environment at Smolnica, southern Poland

Mine drainage impacts from a coal waste pile at Smolnica, Poland have been monitored. Groundwater in an unconfined aquifer downgradient from the pile has near-neutral pH, but high concentrations of sulfate (up to 3,827 mg/l), chloride (up to 903 mg/l), and sodium (up to 2,606 mg/l). Concentrations of iron and manganese are elevated only locally, and concentrations of other metals are low. The behavior of sulfate seems to be conservative in the downgradient aquifer, and gypsum may only be precipitating locally. Concentrations of iron and manganese seem to be controlled by the precipitation of ferric oxide and hydroxides and rhodochrosite, respectively. Complete neutralization of mine drainage by carbonates is consistent with high concentrations of calcium (up to 470 mg/l) and magnesium (up to 563 mg/l) and also with high strontium concentrations of up to 3.08 mg/l, observed in groundwater downgradient from the pile. Hydraulic head profiles at two sites within the river bottom sediments indicate upward flow toward the river with large local differences in groundwater recharge. Water chemistry profiles in the river bottom sediments and geochemical modeling suggest conservative behavior of Na, Cl, and SO₄ and precipitation of Fe and Mn at the groundwater/river water interface. Mine drainage enters the Bierawka River and causes increasing sulfate concentrations. In contrast, concentrations of sodium and chloride in the Bierawka River decrease downgradient from the pile because water in the river upgradient from the pile is already highly contaminated by these species from the discharge of mining waters. Concentrations of Fe and Mn in the river water are low, as a consequence of the precipitation of Fe and Mn oxide and hydroxides. Direct geochemical modeling was able to reproduce measured concentrations of conservative species (e.g., Na, Cl, and SO₄), but errors for metals and Ba were relatively large. In addition, calculated P_CO2 values in the river water are very high, suggesting that equilibrium with atmospheric P_CO2 and P_O2 has not been reached, and at least some reactions should be modeled as kinetic processes. High concentrations of Na, Cl, and SO₄ contribute to the contamination of the Odra River, which is joined by the Bierawka River farther downgradient, thus limiting the use of river water for recreation and other purposes.     

Use of three monitoring approaches to manage a major <Emphasis Type="Italic">Chrysosporum ovalisporum</Emphasis> bloom in the Murray River,Australia, 2016

An unusual bloom of Chrysosporum ovalisporum (basionym Aphanizomenon ovalisporum) occurred for the first time in the Murray River and distributary rivers in New South Wales, Australia, from mid-February to early June 2016. At its greatest extent, it contaminated a combined river length of ca. 2360 km. Chrysosporum ovalisporum usually comprised >99% of the total bloom biovolume at most locations sampled, which at times exceeded 40 mm³ l^?1. The origins of the bloom were most likely reservoirs on the upper Murray River, with cyanobacterial-infested water released from them contaminating the river systems downstream. An integrated approach using three analytical methods: (1) identification and enumeration by microscopy, (2) multiplex quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), and (3) toxin analysis, was used to obtain data for the assessment of risk to water users and management of the bloom. qPCR indicated some cyrA and stxA genes responsible for cylindrospermopsin and saxitoxin biosynthesis respectively were present, but mostly below the level of quantification. No mcyE genes for microcystin biosynthesis were detected. Toxin analysis also revealed that cylindrospermopsin, saxitoxin and microcystin were all below detection. Lack of measurable toxicity in a species usually considered a cylindrospermopsin producer elsewhere meant the possibility of relaxing management guidelines; however, high (Red) alerts needed to be maintained due to risk to water users from other biohazards potentially produced by the cyanobacteria such as contact irritants. A three-tiered monitoring strategy is suggested for monitoring cyanobacterial blooms to provide enhanced data for bloom management.     

The influence of denture cleansers on the release of organic compounds from soft lining materials

Biocompatibility constitutes the most fundamental requirement with respect to all dental materials to be applied within the oral cavity. In its environment, various toxic compounds may be released by dental materials which pose potential threats to the patient's health. Due to the fact that dentures remain in the oral cavity for a very long time, a detailed examination and verification of prosthetic materials with a view to their toxicity seems to be essential. By using very sensitive measurement techniques such as gas chromatography, one may determine which compounds are released by these materials. The aim of this paper was to determine the influence of various denture cleansers on the release of organic compounds from four soft dental materials used in prosthetics for lining dentures. These materials when placed in commonly used disinfectants (Corega Tabs, sodium hypochlorite, chlorhexidine, hydrogen peroxide), as well as in artificial saliva, produced 13 chemical compounds such as monomers (methyl methacrylate, ethyl methacrylate, dodecyl methacrylate), plasticizers (dibutyl phthalate, diethyl phthalate, tributyl acetylcitrate) and others (e.g. benzophenone). A comparison of chemical compounds released from acrylic-based materials and those released from silica-based materials demonstrated that acrylic-based materials are less resistant to disinfectants.