Climate treaties and approaching catastrophes

If the threshold that triggers climate catastrophe is known with certainty, and the benefits of avoiding catastrophe are high relative to the costs, treaties can easily coordinate countries' behavior so as to avoid the threshold. Where the net benefits of avoiding catastrophe are lower, treaties typically fail to help countries cooperate to avoid catastrophe, sustaining only modest cuts in emissions. These results are unaffected by uncertainty about the impact of catastrophe. By contrast, uncertainty about the catastrophic threshold normally causes coordination to collapse. Whether the probability density function has “thin” or “fat” tails makes little difference.     

Cost-Effectiveness of a Photochemical Oxidant Episode Regulation

The precursors used to conduct and the results of a cost-effectiveness study of photochemical oxidant episode control actions for the State of Illinois are analyzed. The method is general enough to be used in analyzing short-term episode regulations in other geographical areas and for other types of pollutants. Real costs and the probable emission reductions of the precursor compounds to oxidant formation, hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides, are estimated for each of twenty-two control actions and for sets of control actions that are implemented at four episode stages. Control actions affect the use of motor vehicles and parking facilities; scheduling of road repairs; and the operation of manufacturing and other facilities having process emissions, electric power plants, commercial establishments, and refuse incinerators. The actions are analyzed and compared on the basis of relative economic efficiency. The expected annual cost of the regulation and the distribution of cost across sectors are also discussed. The annual cost of the oxidant episode regulation in the Chicago SMSA Is estimated to be $12.9 million; expected annual emission reductions are 1180 ton hydrocarbons and 970 ton nitrogen oxide. It is concluded that the expected cost of the regulation is not overly restrictive if the frequency of major curtailments in manufacturing and transportation is low; the cost is relatively small compared with the estimated annual cost of sulfur dioxide and particulate controls.     

Feasibility Demonstration of Electrostatic Precipitation at 1700°F

An experimental high-temperature, high-pressure electrostatic precipitator module has been designed, fabricated and then evaluated in a gaseous environment having the characteristics anticipated for the combustion chamber of a system for generating electric power from the incineration of municipal solid wastes.

Stable positive and negative corona discharges were established in combustion gases from the burning of methanol and air (temperature and pressure approximately 1700°F and 100 psig, respectively) without any apparent deleterious effects due to thermal ionization and/or emission. At gas conditions of about 1700°F and 50 psig, positive polarity energization of the discharge electrode appeared superior to that of negative polarity in terms of voltage level that could be applied and electrical stability.

However, precipitator performance on removal of alumina dust injected under controlled conditions with the methanol fuel, showed negative polarity to be superior to positive polarity at the selected conditions of 1650°F and 100 psig which closely correspond to those required for optimum operation of the gas turbine presently under consideration. Removal efficiencies ranging from 25% for positive polarity to as high as 87% with negative polarity were measured.

In order to check whether materials having a low ionization potential would thermally ionize to such an extent that the voltage-corona current characteristics of the precipitator would be impaired, rendering it ineffective, potassium chloride salt in solution was injected with the fuel. Results indicated that amounts of approximately one part by weight of potassium ion in 2500 to 3000 parts by weight of gas at 1700°F tripled the current measured for a given voltage when compared to non-injection.

Although a limited test program was conducted, sufficient data were obtained to allow preliminary design and sizing of larger scale units.