基于复合LSTM模型的PM2.5浓度预测

在对淄博市19个空气质量监测站点监测数据进行分析后,提出了一种基于机器学习的复合模型——灰色关联度分析(GRA)-改进的完备总体经验模态分解(ICEEMD)-长短期记忆网络(LSTM)模型。通过分析淄博市2019年大气污染物和气象数据,选用LSTM模型预测PM_2.5浓度。由于传统单一模块机器学习模型具有训练时间较长和预测精度较低的问题,提出了复合LSTM模型。该模型由3部分组成：GRA,用于PM_2.5浓度影响因素变量筛选;ICEEMD,用于PM_2.5分解、分量筛选和原始大气污染物及气象数据处理;LSTM,用于PM_2.5浓度预测。预测结果表明：淄博市中部丘陵地带PM_2.5浓度高于南部山区和北部平原,东部高于西部;淄博市逐月PM_2.5浓度呈“U”形分布,1月最高,8月最低;淄博市PM_2.5浓度受PM₁₀和CO影响较大,受湿度和温度影响较小。对比单一LSTM模型和GRA-LSTM模型,GRA-ICEEMD-LSTM模型...     

Behavior of buoyancy and momentum controlled hydrogen jets and flames emitted into the quiescent atmosphere

As an effort to improve the prediction of hydrogen dispersion in the atmosphere, effects of buoyancy acting on the hydrogen jets formed by releasing from high pressure vessels are investigated analytically and experimentally. For the analytical study, an integral analysis for buoyant jets and flames is carried out to yield the closed formula describing the jet and flame shapes, including their trajectory and horizontal and vertical lengths corresponding to the critical concentrations. Because the density of hydrogen after releasing from high pressure storage conditions is much close to that of helium than that of hydrogen at room temperature, helium is used as the hydrogen surrogate for the buoyant jet experiments, which were performed by visualizing the jet dispersing in the atmosphere up to the jet Reynolds number Re ～ 2400. The trajectories obtained by the integral analysis and experiments agree relatively well until the transition to turbulence occurs. A further estimate for jets and flames is made by using the integral analysis as a preliminary design to the experiments involving a much greater hydrogen release. Once the comparative investigation of the larger scale experiments with the integral analysis, we anticipate that a more universal hydrogen jet and flame data can be obtained, which perhaps leads to a better safety distance of hydrogen stations.     

Emergency response study for chemical releases in the high-tech industry in Taiwan—A semiconductor plant example

In the past two decades, there has been continuous investment and expansion of semiconductor, photoelectric panel, or solar cell plants in the high-tech industry. For example, establishing a semiconductor plant costs about US$ 3 billion. In addition, the output value of integrated circuits (IC) of Taiwan as a whole is estimated to be about US$ 5.215 billion, and globally of US$ 275.2 billion in 2008. A large amount and a variety of specialty gases or chemicals are applied during processes in high-tech facilities and these chemicals are characterized by inflammability, toxicity, and corrosiveness. Accidents may result once errors or leaks occur in any part of the supply chain, which consists of storage facilities, supply equipment, process machines, and tail gas elimination devices. Personnel casualties can result in serious situations. This study discusses the emergency response procedures and common response defects in semiconductor plants with a view to enhancing emergency response effects and capabilities, avoiding casualties, reducing property loss and shortening operation interruption.     

Modeling the contribution of speeding and impaired driving to insurance claim counts and costs when contributing factors are unknown

PROBLEM: There are no specific indicators for distinguishing insurance claims related to speeding and impaired driving in the information warehouse at the Insurance Corporation of British Columbia. Contributing factors are only recorded for that part of the claim data that is also reported by the police. Most published statistics on crashes that are related to alcohol or speeding are based on police-reported data, but this represents only a fraction of all incidents. METHOD: This paper proposes surrogate models to estimate the counts and the average costs associated with speeding and impaired driving to insurance claims when contributing factors are unknown. Using police-reported data, classification rules and logistic regression models are developed to form such estimates. One approach applies classification rules to categorize insurance claims into those related to speeding, impaired driving, and other factors. The counts and the costs of insurance claims for each of these strata and overall are then estimated. A second method models the probability that an insurance claim is related to speeding or impaired driving using logistic regression and uses this to estimate the overall counts and the average costs of the claims. The two methods are compared and evaluated using simulation studies. RESULTS: The logistic regression model was found to be superior to the classification model for predicting insurance claim counts by category, but less efficient at predicting average claim costs. IMPACT: Having estimates of counts and costs of insurance claims related to impaired driving or speeding for all reported crash events provides a more accurate basis for policy-makers to plan changes and benefits of road safety programs.     

An empirical survey of the benefits of implementing pay for safety scheme (PFSS) in the Hong Kong construction industry

Introduction

The Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) has implemented different safety initiatives to improve the safety performance of the construction industry over the past decades. The Pay for Safety Scheme (PFSS), which is one of the effective safety measures launched by the government in 1996, has been widely adopted in the public works contracts. Both the accident rate and fatality rate of public sector projects have decreased noticeably over this period.

Method

This paper aims to review the current state of application of PFSS in Hong Kong, and attempts to identify and analyze the perceived benefits of PFSS in construction via an industry-wide empirical questionnaire survey. A total of 145 project participants who have gained abundant handson experience with the PFSS construction projects were requested to complete a survey questionnaire to indicate the relative importance of those benefits identified in relation to PFSS. The perceived benefits were measured and ranked from the perspectives of the client and contractor for crosscomparison.

Results

The survey findings suggested the most significant benefits derived from adopting PFSS were: (a) Increased safety training; (b) Enhanced safety awareness; (c) Encouragement of developing safety management system; and (d) Improved safety commitment. A wider application of PFSS should be advocated so as to achieve better safety performance within the construction industry.

Impact on Industry

It is recommended that a similar scheme to the PFSS currently adopted in Hong Kong may be developed for implementation in other regions or countries for international comparisons.     

Efficacy of side airbags in reducing driver deaths in driver-side car and SUV collisions

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the efficacy of side airbags in preventing driver deaths in passenger vehicles struck on the driver side. METHODS: Risk ratios for driver deaths per driver-side collision were computed for side airbag-equipped cars and SUVs, relative to vehicles without side airbags. Driver fatality ratios also were calculated for the same vehicles in front and rear impacts, and these were used to adjust the side crash risk ratios for differences in fatality risk unrelated to side airbags. Risk ratios were calculated separately for side airbags providing torso-only protection and side airbags with head protection; almost all head protecting airbags also had airbags protecting the torso. RESULTS: Car driver death risk in driver-side crashes was reduced by 37 percent for head protecting airbags and 26 percent for torso-only side airbags. Car driver death risk was reduced for older and younger drivers, males and females, and drivers of small and midsize cars, and when the striking vehicle was an SUV/pickup or a car/minivan. Death risk for drivers of SUVs was reduced by 52 percent with head protecting side airbags and by 30 percent with torso-only airbags. The effectiveness of side airbags could not be assessed for pickups and minivans due to the small number of these vehicles with airbags involved in crashes. CONCLUSION: Side airbags substantially reduce the risk of car and SUV driver death in driver-side collisions. Making side airbags with head protection available to drivers and right front passengers in all passenger vehicles could reduce the number of fatalities in motor vehicle crashes in the United States by about 2,000 each year.     

Experimental investigation of the complex deflagration phenomena of hybrid mixtures of activated carbon dust/hydrogen/air

This paper aims to develop quantitative insights based on measured deflagration parameters of hybrid mixtures of activated carbon (AC) dust and hydrogen (H₂) gas in air. The generated experimental evidence is used to reject the claim of the null hypothesis (H₀) that severity of deflagrations of H₂/air mixtures always bound the severity of deflagrations of heterogenous combustible mixtures of AC dust/H₂/air containing the same H₂ concentrations as in the H₂/air binaries. The core insights of this investigation show that the maximum deflagration pressure rise (ΔP_MAX) and maximum rate of pressure rise ((dP/dt)_MAX) of this hybrid mixture are greater than those corresponding to deflagrations of H₂/air mixtures for all the dust and H₂ concentrations being examined. The deflagration severity indices (K_St and ES) of the hybrid mixture containing 29 mol% H₂ are found to be greater than those of the H₂/air mixture containing 29 mol% H₂. Also, the minimum explosible concentration (MEC) of the hybrid mixture is lower than that of the AC dust in air only. The insights gained should lead to better realization of the severity of a postulated safety-significant accident scenario associated with on-board cryoadsorption H₂ storage systems for fuel-cell (FC) powered light-duty vehicles. The identified insights could also be relevant to other industrial processes where combustible dusts are generated in the vicinity of solvent vapors. Moreover, these insights should be useful for supporting quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of on-board H₂ storage systems, designing improved safety measures for cryoadsorption H₂ storage tanks, and guiding H₂ safety standards and transportation regulations.     

Chromosomal abnormalities associated with a single umbilical artery

A single umbilical artery was seen in 10 out of 117 cytogenetically abnormal pregnancies. The abnormal karyotypes found to be associated with a single umbilical artery were trisomy 18 (n = 5), monosomy X (n = 2), triploidy (n = 1), sex chromosome (47,XYY; n = 1) and translocation (46t(X,5)(q13p15); n = 1). With the exception of the translocation case, all cases with a single umbilical artery had anatomical defects which were detectable ultrasonographically. This suggests that a single umbilical artery alone is not an indication for prenatal fetal karyotyping.