Bayesian Small Area Models for Assessing Wildlife Conservation Risk in Patchy Populations

Abstract:  Species conservation risk assessments require accurate, probabilistic, and biologically meaningful maps of population distribution. In patchy populations, the reasons for discontinuities are not often well understood. We tested a novel approach to habitat modeling in which methods of small area estimation were used within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. Amphibian occurrence was modeled with logistic regression that included third-order drainages as hierarchical effects to account for patchy populations. Models including the random drainage effects adequately represented species occurrences in patchy populations of 4 amphibian species in the Oregon Coast Range (U.S.A.). Amphibian surveys from other locations within the same drainage were used to calibrate local drainage-scale effects. Cross-validation showed that prediction errors for calibrated models were 77% to 86% lower than comparable regionally constructed models, depending on species. When calibration data were unavailable, small area and regional models performed similarly, although poorly. Small area estimation models complement wildlife ecology and habitat studies, and can help managers develop a regional picture of the conservation status for relatively rare species.     

Rainfall trends in twentieth century over Kerala,India

Attempts were made to study temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over Kerala, India, during the period from 1871 to 2005. Longterm changes in rainfall determined by Man-Kendall rank statistics and linear trend. The analysis revealed significant decrease in southwest monsoon rainfall while increase in post-monsoon season over the State of Kerala which is popularly known as the “Gateway of summer monsoon”. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed insignificant increasing trend. Rainfall during June and July showed significant decreasing trend while increasing trend in January, February and April. Hydel power generation and water availability during summer months are the concern in the State due to rainfall decline in June and July, which are the rainiest months. At the same time, majority of plantation crops are likely to benefit due to increase in rainfall during the post-monsoon season if they are stable and prolonged.     

Heavy metal deposition in the Italian “triangle of death” determined with the moss Scorpiurum circinatum

In this study, a biomonitoring project using the moss Scorpiurum circinatum was carried out to evaluate the deposition and biological effects of heavy metals in the area of Acerra (Naples, S Italy), one of the vertices of the sadly called “Italian triangle of death” owing to the dramatic increase in tumours. The results clearly indicated that the study area is heavily polluted by heavy metals, a large proportion of which is likely present in the atmosphere in particulate form. The ultrastructural organization of exposed samples was essentially preserved, but cell membrane pits, cytoplasm vesicles and concentric multilamellar/multivesicular bodies, probably induced by pollution, were found, which may be involved in the tolerance mechanisms to metal pollution in this moss species. Although severe biological effects were not found at the ultrastructural level in the exposed moss, effects on humans, especially after long-term exposure, are to be expected.