Incorporating Uncertainty Into the Ranking of SPARROW Model Nutrient Yields From Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Watersheds1

Abstract: Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical/mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying “high priority” areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient‐reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight‐digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.     

Climate change impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa: from physical changes to their social repercussions

Regional Environmental Change - The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this...     

Health risk assessment of potentially harmful elements and dietary minerals from vegetables irrigated with untreated wastewater,Pakistan

In the developing world, vegetables are commonly grown in suburban areas irrigated with untreated wastewater containing potentially harmful elements (PHEs). In Pakistan, there is no published work on the bioaccessibility aspect of PHEs and dietary minerals (DMs) in sewage-irrigated soil or the vegetables grown on such soils in Pakistan. Several industrial districts of Pakistan were selected for assessment of the risk associated with the ingestion of vegetables grown over sewage-irrigated soils. Both the total and bioaccessible fraction of PHEs (Cd, Co, Cr, Ni, and Pb) and DMs (Fe, Cu, Mn, Zn, Ca, Mg, and I) in soils and vegetable samples were measured. The concentrations of these PHEs and DMs in sewage-irrigated and control soils were below published upper threshold limits. However, compared to control soils, sewage irrigation over the years decreased soil pH (7.7 vs 8.1) and enhanced dissolved organic carbon (1.8 vs 0.8 %), which could enhance the phyto-availability of PHEs and DMs to crops. Of the PHEs and DMs, the highest transfer factor (soil to plant) was noted for Cd and Ca, respectively. Concentrations of PHEs in most of the sewage-irrigated vegetables were below the published upper threshold limits, except for Cd in the fruiting portion of eggplant and bell pepper (0.06–0.08 mg/kg Cd, dry weight) at three locations in Gujarat and Kasur districts. The bioaccessible fraction of PHEs can reduce the context of dietary intake measurements compared to total concentrations, but differences between both measurements were not significant for Cd. Since the soils of the sampled districts are not overly contaminated compared to control sites, vegetables grown over sewage-irrigated soils would provide an opportunity to harvest mineral-rich vegetables potentially providing consumers 62, 60, 12, 104, and 63 % higher dietary intake of Cu, Mn, Zn, Ca, and Mg, respectively. Based on Fe and vanadium correlations in vegetables, it is inferred that a significant proportion of total dietary Fe intake could be contributed by soil particles adhered to the consumable portion of vegetables. Faecal sterol ratios were used to identify and distinguish the source of faecal contamination in soils from Gujranwala, Gujarat, and Lahore districts, confirming the presence of human-derived sewage biomarkers at different stages of environmental alteration. A strong correlation of some metals with soil organic matter concentration was observed, but none with sewage biomarkers.     

Migration of aluminum from food contact materials to food—a health risk for consumers? Part III of III: migration of aluminum to food from camping dishes and utensils made of aluminum

Background

When cooking on a barbecue grill, consumers often use aluminum grill pans. For one, the pan catches the fats and oils that would drip into the embers causing the formation of potentially noxious smoke, and the pan also protects the food from being burned by direct heat from the coals. In addition, new aluminum products for use in ovens and grills are becoming increasingly popular. Due to their light weight and excellent heat transfer camping, utensils made of aluminum are, for example, often used by fishermen and mountain climbers. Preparing food in aluminum utensils can, however, result in migration of the aluminum to the foodstuffs.

Results/Conclusions

In this study presented here, it was found that the transfer limit of 5.00 mg/L for aluminum is not exceeded using simulants for oil or for tap water; however, with an aqueous solution of 0.5% citric acid, the limit is clearly exceeded at 638 mg/L. This means that the Tolerable Weekly Intake (TWI) is exceeded by 298% for a child weighing 15 kg and for an adult weighing 70 kg it is equivalent to 63.8% of the TWI, assuming a daily uptake of 10 mL marinade containing lemon juice over a period of 1 week. Preparation of a fish dish with a marinade containing lemon juice in camping dishes would result in the TWI being exceeded by 871% for a child weighing 15 kg and by 187% for an adult weighing 70 kg assuming a daily uptake of 250 g over a period of 1 week.

     

Marginal abatement cost curve for nitrogen oxides incorporating controls,renewable electricity,energy efficiency,and fuel switching

A marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) traces out the relationship between the quantity of pollution abated and the marginal cost of abating each additional unit. In the context of air quality management, MACCs are typically developed by sorting control technologies by their relative cost-effectiveness. Other potentially important abatement measures such as renewable electricity, energy efficiency, and fuel switching (RE/EE/FS) are often not incorporated into MACCs, as it is difficult to quantify their costs and abatement potential. In this paper, a U.S. energy system model is used to develop a MACC for nitrogen oxides (NO_x) that incorporates both traditional controls and these additional measures. The MACC is decomposed by sector, and the relative cost-effectiveness of RE/EE/FS and traditional controls are compared. RE/EE/FS are shown to have the potential to increase emission reductions beyond what is possible when applying traditional controls alone. Furthermore, a portion of RE/EE/FS appear to be cost-competitive with traditional controls.

Implications: Renewable electricity, energy efficiency, and fuel switching can be cost-competitive with traditional air pollutant controls for abating air pollutant emissions. The application of renewable electricity, energy efficiency, and fuel switching is also shown to have the potential to increase emission reductions beyond what is possible when applying traditional controls alone.     

The Water Table: The Shifting Foundation of Life on Land

Hyperarid, arid, and semi-arid lands represent over a third of the Earth’s land surface, and are home to over 38 % of the increasing world population. Freshwater is a limiting resource on these lands, and withdrawal of groundwater substantially exceeds recharge. Withdrawals of groundwater for expanding agricultural and domestic use severely limit water availability for groundwater dependent ecosystems. We examine here, with emphasis on quantitative data, case histories of groundwater withdrawals at widely differing scales, on three continents, that range from the impact of a few wells, to the outcomes of total appropriation of flow in a major river system. The case histories provide a glimpse of the immense challenge of replacing groundwater resources once they are severely depleted, and put into sharp focus the question whether the magnitude of the current and future human, economic, and environmental consequences and costs of present practices of groundwater exploitation are adequately recognized.     

Simultaneous immobilization of metals and arsenic in acidic polluted soils near a copper smelter in central Chile

Introduction  

Acidic and metal(oid)-rich topsoils resulted after 34 years of continuous operations of a copper smelter in the Puchuncaví valley, central Chile. Currently, large-scale remediation actions for simultaneous in situ immobilization of metals and As are needed to reduce environmental risks of polluted soils. Aided phytostabilization is a cost-effective alternative, but adequate local available soil amendments have to be identified and management options have to be defined.     

Molecular characterization of denitrifying bacteria isolated from the anoxic reactor of a modified DEPHANOX plant performing enhanced biological phosphorus removal

Enhanced Biological Phosphorus Removal (EBPR) under anoxic conditions was achieved using a Biological Nutrient Removal (BNR) system based on a modification of the DEPHANOX configuration. Double-probe Fluorescence in Situ Hybridization (FISH) revealed that Polyphosphate Accumulating Organisms (PAOs) comprised 12.3 +/- 3.2% of the total bacterial population in the modified DEPHANOX plant. The growing bacterial population on blood agar and Casitone Glycerol Yeast Autolysate agar (CGYA) medium was 16.7 +/- 0.9 x 10(5) and 3.0 +/- 0.6 x 10(5) colony forming units (cfu) mL(-1) activated sludge, respectively. A total of 121 bacterial isolates were characterized according to their denitrification ability, with 26 bacterial strains being capable of reducing nitrate to gas. All denitrifying isolates were placed within the alpha-, beta-, and gamma-subdivisions of Proteobacteria and the family Flavobacteriaceae. Furthermore, a novel denitrifying bacterium within the genus Pseudomonas was identified. This is the first report on the isolation and molecular characterization of denitrifying bacteria from EBPR sludge using a DEPHANOX-type plant.     

Effects of signals of disorder on fear of crime in real and virtual environments

Despite the fact that virtual environments are increasingly deployed to study the relation between urban planning, physical and social disorder, and fear of crime, their ecological validity for this type of research has not been established. This study compares the effects of similar signs of public disorder (litter, warning signs, cameras, signs of vandalism and car burglary) in an urban neighborhood and in its virtual counterpart on the subjective perception of safety and livability of the neighborhood. Participants made a walking tour through either the real or the virtual neighborhood, which was either in an orderly (baseline) state or adorned with numerous signs of public disorder. During their tour they reported the signs of disorder they noticed and the degree to which each of these affected their emotional state and feelings of personal safety. After finishing their tour they appraised the perceived safety and livability of the environment. Both in the real and in the simulated urban neighborhood, signs of disorder evoked associations with social disorder. In all conditions, neglected greenery was spontaneously reported as a sign of disorder. Disorder did not inspire concern for personal safety in reality and in the virtual environment with a realistic soundscape. However, in the absence of sound disorder compromised perceived personal safety in the virtual environment. Signs of disorder were associated with negative emotions more frequently in the virtual environment than in its real-world counterpart, particularly in the absence of sound. Also, signs of disorder degraded the perceived livability of the virtual, but not of the real neighborhood. Hence, it appears that people focus more on details in a virtual environment than in reality. We conclude that both a correction for this focusing effect and realistic soundscapes are required to make virtual environments an appropriate medium for both etiological (e.g. the effects of signs of disorder on fear of crime) and intervention (e.g. CPTED) research.