FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCING MODELING IN HYDROLOGY1

ABSTRACT: Fractional differencing is a tool for modeling time series which have long-term dependence; i.e., series in which the correlation between distant observations, though small, is not negligible. Fractionally differenced ARIMA models are formed by permitting the differencing parameter d in the familiar Box-Jenkins ARIMA(p, d, q) models to take nonintegral values; they permit the simultaneous modeling of the long-term and short-term behavior of an observed time series. This paper discusses the usefulness of fractional differencing to time-series modeling, with emphasis on hydrologic applications. A methodology for fitting fractionally differenced ARIMA models is described, and examples are presented.     

Environmental considerations for levees and floodwalls

Levees and floodwalls are used extensively throughout the United States for flood control. Levee projects often lack ecological, recreational, and aesthetic values, except for incidental fish and wildlife benefits derived from borrow pits and recreational facilities found in some urban settings. In recent years increased environmental concern within construction agencies and greater responsiveness to public opinion have resulted in increasing numbers of levee projects designed, built, and maintained with environmental objectives in mind. This paper reviews environmental concepts successfully employed on levee projects constructed in recent years by the US Army Corps of Engineers. Some of the most innovative concepts are described and illustrated and design considerations are discussed.     

Impacts of hydroelectric development on riparian vegetation in the Sierra Nevada region,California, USA

Fourteen streams in the Sierra Nevada in the USA were sampled to determine whether diversions of streamflow for hydroelectric development had caused significant changes in riparian vegetation. Several streams showed significant differences in vegetation cover, community composition, or community structure between pairs of diverted and undiverted reaches. On some streams, environmental conditions rather than streamflow diversions may have been responsible for vegetation differences. Streams in the Sierra Nevada respond individualistically to diversions. Prediction of vegetation responses must take into consideration environmental characteristics of specific stream reaches.     

ALTERNATIVES TO THE USE OF AGRICULTURAL DRAINAGE WELLS1

ABSTRACT: A large number of agricultural drainage wells (ADWs) are located in north-central Iowa. These wells permit sediments, pesticides, nitrate, and bacteria in surface and subsurface drainage water to enter regional aquifers that are currently being used for drinking-water supplies, mostly by rural families and communities. This paper reports some possible alternatives to control the entry of surface and subsurface drainage waters into groundwater systems, and describes a methodology to make comprehensive economic feasibility studies of alternative drainage outlets. The estimated cost of providing main subsurface drains varied from $220 to $960 per hectare. If the use of ADWs was completely eliminated without providing alternative drainage, it is estimated that the average annual loss to the farmers of the area would be at least $270 per hectare in reduced crop yields. Of course, losses would be weather dependent and highly variable. Management practices to reduce the pollutant load in water draining to ADWs are also discussed.     

AN EVALUATION OF WEEKLY AND MONTHLY TIME SERIES FORECASTS OF MUNICIPAL WATER USE1

ABSTRACT: A cascade model for forecasting municipal water use one week or one month ahead, conditioned on rainfall estimates, is presented and evaluated. The model comprises four components: long term trend, seasonal cycle, autocorrelation and correlation with rainfall. The increased forecast accuracy obtained by the addition of each component is evaluated. The City of Deerfield Beach, Florida, is used as the application example with the calibration period from 1976–1980 and the forecast period the drought year of 1981. Forecast accuracy is measured by the average absolute relative error (AARE, the average absolute value of the difference between actual and forecasted use, divided by the actual use). A benchmark forecast is calculated by assuming that water use for a given week or month in 1981 is the same as the average for the corresponding period from 1976 to 1980. This method produces an AARE of 14.6 percent for one step ahead forecasts of monthly data and 15.8 percent for weekly data. A cascade model using trend, seasonality and autocorrelation produces forecasts with AARE of about 12 percent for both monthly and weekly data while adding a linear relationship of water use and rainfall reduces the AARE to 8 percent in both cases if it is assumed that rainfall is known during the forecast period. Simple rainfall predictions do not increase the forecast accuracy for water use so the major utility of relating water use and rainfall lies in forecasting various possible water use sequences conditioned on sequences of historical rainfall data.     

Impact of power utility rights-of-way on wooded wetland

This study documents the effects of power utility right-of-way construction and maintenance on the vegetation of a wooded wetland in North Reading, Massachusetts, USA. Neither activity had a substantial, long-term negative impact. Except for differences in size and maturity, the vegetation recovered in two years from nearly total destruction caused by construction. Maintenance that included the periodic removal of high-growing species led to the formation of a plant association different from the one occurring naturally, but as diverse and species rich.     

Fuelwood Prices in India: Policy Implications

The price of fuelwood has been increasing at a rate higher than that of the consumer price index in most of the major urban centres of India. Today, in terms of cost per unit of energy delivered, fuelwood is more than twice as expensive as kerosene for cooking. This has immense public policy implications. A number of complementary policy interventions are needed so that forests can be saved and the stability of energy supplies can be achieved in developing countries.     

Behavioral risk and education: A united states case study

Summary Does educational achievement affect people's health-related behaviors? Differences in behavioral risk were found among 9,000 18 to 34 year old Americans surveyed for smoking, alcohol abuse, seat-belt-use, obesity, high blood pressure and physical activity. After controlling for sex, race/ethnicity and age, educational achievement was strongly associated with smoking and seat-belt use, and also with hypertension and obesity. New environmental health education programs in the USA are expected to reach the more educated, leading to enhanced health for most Americans, but not the less educated, resulting in a widening gap in American society.Dr Michael R. Greenberg is an Advisory Board member ofThe Environmentalist, he is Co-director of the Graduate Program in Public Health at Rutgers University and the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey - Robert Wood Johnson Medical School.     

Regulatory context for cumulative impact research

Wetlands protection has become a topic of increased public attention and support, and regulation of wetlands loss under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act has received high priority within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Despite this, the nation is continuing to experience serious wetlands losses. This situation reflects the contentious nature of wetlands protection; it involves fundamental conflicts between environmental and development interests. Better information is needed to support regulatory decision making, including information on cumulative impacts. Currently, consideration of cumulative impacts, although required by various federal regulations, is limited. One reason is that most regulatory decisions are made on a permit-specific, site-specific basis, whereas cumulative impacts must be assessed on a broader, regional scale. In addition, scientific information and methods necessary to support cumulative impact assessment have been lacking. An anticipatory, planning-oriented framework to complement the existing site-specific permit review program is needed to support more effective consideration of cumulative impacts; such an effort is beginning to emerge. In addition, EPA is supporting research to provide better information on cumulative effects. It is recommended that the EPA program place initial emphasis on synthesis and analysis of existing information, on maximizing its use in decision making, and on information transfer. Recommended approaches include correlation of historic wetlands losses with loss of wetlands function and values, regional case studies, and development of indices of cumulative impact for use in permit review.Formerly Director, Office of Federal Activities, US Environmental Protection Agency