Semi-parametric statistical approaches for space-time process prediction

The problem of estimation and prediction of a spatial-temporal stochastic process, observed at regular times and irregularly in space, is considered. A mixed formulation involving a non- parametric component, accounting for a deterministic trend and the effect of exogenous variables, and a parametric component representing the purely spatio-temporal random variation is proposed. Correspondingly, a two-step procedure, first addressing the estimation of the non- parametric component, and then the estimation of the parametric component is developed from the residual series obtained, with spatial-temporal prediction being performed in terms of suitable spatial interpolation of the temporal variation structure. The proposed model formula-tion, together with the estimation and prediction procedure, are applied using a Gaussian ARMA structure for temporal modelling to space-time forecasting from real data of air pollution concentration levels in the region surrounding a power station in northwest Spain.     

An assessment of heavy metal contamination in surface sediment using statistical analysis

The distribution and accumulation of heavy metals in the sediments, especially those nearest of wastewater discharges of south of Spain, were investigated. Sediment samples from 14 locations were collected and characterised for metal content (e.g. Ni, Cu, Zn, Cr, Pb, Mn, Cd and Hg), organic carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorous, n-hexane-extractable material, carbonates and grain size. Concentration data were processed using correlation analysis and factor analysis. The correlation analysis of concentrations data showed important positive correlations among organic carbon, total phosphorus, Cu, Zn, Cd and Hg, otherwise weak correlations among Mn, Cr, Ni and CO₃ ^2???, indicating that these metals have complicated geochemical behaviours. The use of statistical factor analysis also confirmed these results. Sediments pollution assessment was carried out using geoaccumulation and metal pollution indexes (MPI₈). The results revealed that sediments of Cádiz bay and Sancti Petri channel were uncontaminated with the studied metals.     

A model for estimating the potential biomagnification of chemicals in a generic food web: Preliminary development

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: Bioaccumulation and biomagnification of organic pollutants have been increasingly assessed and modeled during the last years. Due to the complexity of these processes and the large variability of food webs, setting generic assessments for these parameters is really difficult. Equilibrium models, based on a compound's lipophylicity, are the main tool in regulatory proposals, such as for identifying Persistent, Bioaccumulative and Toxic Substances (PBTs), although a refinement has been claimed by the scientific community. Toxicokinetic studies offer an alternative for these estimations, where biomagnification is modeled as a succession of bioaccumulation processes, each one regulated by toxicokinetic parameters. METHODS: A review of kinetic models covering species belonging to different trophic levels and with different ecological behavior has been conducted. The results were employed for setting a conceptual model for estimating the biomagnification potential in a generic food web, which was mathematically implemented through system dynamic models developed under data sheet software. Crystal Ball was then employed for allowing Monte Carlo based probabilistic calculations. Bioaccumulation laboratory assays have been performed to estimate toxicokinetic parameters in mussels (Mytilus edulis) with two PAHs (chrysene and benzo[a]pyrene). The contamination was delivered via food. The exposure period lasted more than one month followed then by a depuration phase. The contaminant content was determined on an individual basis on five replicates. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION:. The reviewed information suggested the development of a tiered conceptual biomagnification model, starting with a simplified food chain which can be refined to more realistic and complex models in successive levels. CONCLUSIONS: The mathematical implementation of the conceptual model offers tools for estimating the potential for bioaccumulation and biomagnification of chemicals under very different conditions. The versatility of the model can be used for both comparative estimations and for validating the model. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Since bioaccumulation and biomagnification processes are crucial elements for a proper risk assessment of chemicals, their estimation by mathematical models has been widely tested. However, inregulatory assessments, too simplistic models are still being used quite often. The biomagnification model presented in this study should be amore accurate alternative to these models. In comparison to other previously published biomagnification models, the present one covers the time variation of bioaccumulation using just a few toxicokinetic parameters.     

Sensitivity analysis of a parameterization of the stomatal component of the DO3SE model for Quercus ilex to estimate ozone fluxes

A sensitivity analysis of a proposed parameterization of the stomatal conductance (g(s)) module of the European ozone deposition model (DO(3)SE) for Quercus ilex was performed. The performance of the model was tested against measured g(s) in the field at three sites in Spain. The best fit of the model was found for those sites, or during those periods, facing no or mild stress conditions, but a worse performance was found under severe drought or temperature stress, mostly occurring at continental sites. The best performance was obtained when both f(phen) and f(SWP) were included. A local parameterization accounting for the lower temperatures recorded in winter and the higher water shortage at the continental sites resulted in a better performance of the model. The overall results indicate that two different parameterizations of the model are needed, one for marine-influenced sites and another one for continental sites.     

Stomatal conductance of semi-natural Mediterranean grasslands: implications for the development of ozone critical levels

Intra-genus and intra-specific variation and the influence of nitrogen enrichment on net assimilation and stomatal conductance of some annual Trifolium species of Mediterranean dehesa grasslands were assessed under experimental conditions. Also gas exchange rates were compared between some Leguminosae and Poaceae species growing in the field in a dehesa ecosystem in central Spain. The results showed that the previously reported different O3 sensitivity of some Trifolium species growing in pots does not seem to be related to different maximum g(s) values. In addition, no clear differences on gas exchange rates could be attributed to Leguminosae and Poaceae families growing in the field, with intra-genus variation being more important than differences found between families. Further studies are needed to increase the database for developing a flux-based approach for setting O3 critical levels for semi-natural Mediterranean species.     

Proposed guidelines for diagnosis of chromosome mosaicism in amniocytes based on data derived from chromosome mosaicism and pseudomosaicism studies

Currently, accepted protocol which has been developed at the Prenatal Diagnosis Laboratory of New York City (PDL) requires that when a chromosome abnormality is found in one or more cells in one flask, another 20–40 cells must be examined from one or two additional flasks. Chromosome mosaicism is diagnosed only when an identical abnormality is detected in cells from two or more flasks. In a recent PDL series of 12 000 cases studied according to this protocol, we diagnosed 801 cases (6.68 per cent) of single-cell pseudomosaicism (SCPM), 126 cases (1.05 per cent) of multiple-cell pseudomosaicism (MCPM), and 24 cases (0.2 per cent) of true mosaicism. Pseudomosaicism (PM) involving a structural abnormality was a frequent finding (2/3 of SCPM and 3/5 of MCPM), with an unbalanced structural abnormality in 55 per cent of SCPM and 24 per cent of MCPM. We also reviewed all true mosaic cases (a total of 50) diagnosed in the first 22000 PDL cases. Of these 50 cases, 23 were sex chromosome mosaics and 27 had autosomal mosaicism; 48 cases had numerical abnormalities and two had structural abnormalities. Twenty-five cases of mosaicism were diagnosed in the first 20 cells from two flasks, i.e., without additional work-up, whereas the other 25 cases required extensive work-up to establish a diagnosis (12 needed additional cell counts from the initial two culture flasks; 13 required harvesting a third flask for cell analysis). Our data plus review of other available data led us to conclude that rigorous efforts to diagnose true mosaicism have little impact in many instances, and therefore are not cost-effective. On the basis of all available data, a work-up for potential mosaicism involving a sex chromosome aneuploidy or structural abnormality should have less priority than a work-up for a common viable autosomal trisomy. We recommend revised guidelines for dealing with (1) a numerical versus a structural abnormality and (2) an autosomal versus a sex chromosome numerical aneuploidy. Emphasis should be placed on autosomes known to be associated with phenotypic abnormalities. These new guidelines, which cover both flask and in situ methods, should result in more effective prenatal cytogenetic diagnosis and reduced patient anxiety.     

Characterization of industrial aqueous discharges by the TLC/Ames’ assay

The $\text{in situ}$ detection of mutagens by the TLC/Ames’ assay has been applied to aqueous discharges from a textile plant. The samples were fractionated in acid/neutral and basic fractions which subsequently were subject to the TLC/Ames’ test. The results demonstrate the presence of a number of both direct and indirect mutagens in the waste water. The chemical properties of these compounds are discussed in light of their chromatographic behaviour. The applicability of this method for characterizing mutagens in complex mixtures is demonstrated.     

Nitrate toxicity to aquatic animals: a review with new data for freshwater invertebrates

Published data on nitrate (NO3-) toxicity to freshwater and marine animals are reviewed. New data on nitrate toxicity to the freshwater invertebrates Eulimnogammarus toletanus, Echinogammarus echinosetosus and Hydropsyche exocellata are also presented. The main toxic action of nitrate is due to the conversion of oxygen-carrying pigments to forms that are incapable of carrying oxygen. Nitrate toxicity to aquatic animals increases with increasing nitrate concentrations and exposure times. In contrast, nitrate toxicity may decrease with increasing body size, water salinity, and environmental adaptation. Freshwater animals appear to be more sensitive to nitrate than marine animals. A nitrate concentration of 10 mg NO3-N/l (USA federal maximum level for drinking water) can adversely affect, at least during long-term exposures, freshwater invertebrates (E. toletanus, E. echinosetosus, Cheumatopsyche pettiti, Hydropsyche occidentalis), fishes (Oncorhynchus mykiss, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmo clarki), and amphibians (Pseudacris triseriata, Rana pipiens, Rana temporaria, Bufo bufo). Safe levels below this nitrate concentration are recommended to protect sensitive freshwater animals from nitrate pollution. Furthermore, a maximum level of 2 mg NO3-N/l would be appropriate for protecting the most sensitive freshwater species. In the case of marine animals, a maximum level of 20 mg NO3-N/l may in general be acceptable. However, early developmental stages of some marine invertebrates, that are well adapted to low nitrate concentrations, may be so susceptible to nitrate as sensitive freshwater invertebrates.     

Cover crops and natural vegetation mulch effect achieved by mechanical management with lateral rotary mower in weed population dynamics in citrus

The aim of this study was to obtain information on practical weed management in order to reduce the use of herbicides thereby contributing to the sustainable development of citrus crop. The experiment was carried out under field conditions at the experimental area of the Department of Vegetal Production at the College of Agriculture "Luiz de Queiroz," Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, during the season 2002-2003. Influence of mulches produced by four types of vegetations on the dynamic population of weeds in the line of citrus crop (Citrus sinensis (L.) Osbeck) was evaluated. The experimental design was of factorial randomized blocks (4 x 2), where the treatments were: (i) four types of vegetation: Dolichos lablab L., Cajanus cajan (L.) Millsp, Penisetum glaucum (L.) Leeke, and the natural infestation composed basically by Panicum maximum Jacq.; and (ii) two types of fertilization: directed under canopy and broadcast. Mechanical management of the different vegetations was accomplished using a lateral rotary mower, KAMAQ, I model NINJA MAC 260, projected to release the green cut material under crop canopy, forming a mulch layer. The studied parameters were: (i) counting of weeds per m2 in the crop line after 30, 60, 90, 180, and 210 days following the cutting of existing vegetation; (ii) percentage of covered area by weeds; and (iii) some chemical properties of the soil. It was observed that the natural infestation showed a better weed control when compared with the other treatments, and that the broadcast fertilization, regardless of coverage used, presented a lower number of weeds.     

Large-scale spatial variation in mercury concentrations in cattle in NW Spain

Mercury (Hg) is a highly toxic environmental contaminant and man-made emissions account for between a quarter and a third of total atmospheric levels. Point discharges, particularly coal-burning power stations, are major sources of atmospheric Hg and can result in marked spatial variation in mercury deposition and subsequent uptake by biota. The aims of this study were to quantify the extent to which major point and diffuse sources of atmospheric Hg emissions affected accumulation of Hg by biota throughout Galicia and Asturias, two of the major regions in northwest Spain. We did this by relating renal Hg concentrations in locally reared cattle (n=284) to the proximity of animals to point and diffuse sources of Hg emissions. Mercury residues in calf kidneys ranged between non-detected and 89.4 g/kg wet weight. Point discharges from coal-fired power plants in Galicia had the most dominant impact on Hg accumulation by calves in Galicia, affecting animals throughout the region and explaining some two-thirds of the variation in renal residues between animals located directly downwind from the plants. The effects of more diffuse emission sources on Hg accumulation in calves were not distinguishable in Galicia but were detected in cattle from neighbouring Asturias. The impact of both point and diffuse sources in elevating environmental levels of bioavailable Hg and subsequent accumulation by cattle extended to approximately 140-200 km downwind from source.