Buchbesprechungen

The Science of Nature -     

Buchbesprechungen

The Science of Nature -     

Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget

We present an assessment of the plausible Paris-aligned fair share nett cumulative carbon dioxide (CO₂) quota for an example nation state, the Republic of Ireland. By Paris-aligned, we mean consistent with the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France, in December 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). We compare and contrast this quota with both the aspirations expressed in the current Irish National Policy Position and current national emission projections. The fair share quota is assessed as a maximum of c. 391 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), equal to 83 tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) per capita, from 2015, based on a precautionary estimate of the global carbon budget (GCB) and specific interpretation of global equity. Given Ireland’s high current CO₂ per capita emission rate, this would correspond to sustained year-on-year reductions in nett annual CO₂ emissions of over ??11% per year (beginning as of 2016). By contrast, the CO₂ mitigation target indicated in the National Policy Position corresponds to nett annual reduction rates in the range of only ?4.7% per year (low ambition) up to a maximum of ??8.3% per year (high ambition), and projections based on current and immediately planned mitigation measures indicate the possibility, instead, of sustained increases in emissions at a rate of the order of +?0.7% per year. Accordingly, there is a large gap between Paris-aligned ambition and current political and policy reality on the ground, with a significant risk of early emergence of “CO₂ debt” and tacit reliance on rapid deployment of currently speculative (at a relevant scale and feasible cost) negative CO₂ emission technologies to actively remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ from country to country, we suggest that this methodology, and its CO₂debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions. We recommend that such framing be incorporated explicitly into a global mitigation strategy via the statements of nationally determined contributions required to be submitted and updated by all parties under the Paris Agreement processes.

     

C-Lock (Patent Pending): A System for Estimating and Certifying Carbon Emission Reduction Credits for the Sequestration of Soil Carbon on Agricultural Land

The C-Lock system was developed to address the need for an improved method of quantifying and certifying project-level carbon emission reduction credits (CERC). It was designed to enable individual landowners to efficiently quantify, certify, pool, market and trade CERCs generated by agricultural management practices. We provide a general overview of the C-Lock system as it has been implemented for the USA State of South Dakota. C-Lock is comprised of four linked components: a web interface, a client database, a Geographic Information System (GIS) database of soil, climate and generalized land use history parameters, and the CENTURY soil carbon model. The user-friendly interface elicits generalized land-use and crop history information from the client from 1900 through 1989, then explicit annual information from 1990 onward. A climate-zone level landuse and crop management database is used to fill in gaps in the client-provided data. These data are used to drive the CENTURY model, which estimates annual changes in soil carbon stocks. Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate uncertainty bounds, and these are applied to the CENTURY outputs in order to provide probabilistic estimates of accrued CERCs in a manner that is transparent and verifiable. In a demonstration application, CERCs are estimated for three different land-use scenarios on a representative field in eastern South Dakota: reduced tillage or conservation (no-till) management of a corn (maize)/wheat/soybean rotation, and enrollment in the Conservation Reserve Program, which entails establishing permanent grass cover. The credits are based on a business-asusual scenario of conventional tillage.     

Carbon Offset Potentials of Four Alternative Forest Management Strategies in Canada: A Simulation Study

Using an Integrated TerrestrialEcosystem C-budget model (InTEC), we simulated thecarbon (C) offset potentials of four alternativeforest management strategies in Canada: afforestation,reforestation, nitrogen (N) fertilization, andsubstitution of fossil fuel with wood, under differentclimatic and disturbance scenarios. C offset potentialis defined as additional C uptake by forest ecosystemsor reduced fossil C emissions when a strategy isimplemented to the theoretical maximum possibleextent. The simulations provided the followingestimated gains from management: (1) Afforesting allthe estimated 7.2 Mha of marginal agricultural landand urban areas in 1999 would create an average Coffset potential of 8 Tg C y^-1 during 1999–2100,at a cost of 3.4 Tg fossil C emission in 1999. (2)Prompt reforestation of all forest lands disturbed inthe previous year during 1999–2100 would produce anaverage C offset potential of 57 Tg C y^-1 forthis period, at a cost of 1.33 Tg C y^-1. (3)Application of N fertilization (at the low rate of 5kg N ha^-1 y^-1) to the 125 Mha ofsemi-mature forest during 1999–2100 would create anaverage C offset of 58 Tg C y^-1 for this period,at a cost of 0.24 Tg C y^-1. (4) Increasingforest harvesting by 20% above current average ratesduring 1999–2100, and using the extra wood products tosubstitute for fossil energy would reduce averageemissions by 11 Tg C y^-1, at a cost of 0.54 TgC y^-1. If implemented to the maximum extent, thecombined C offset potential of all four strategieswould be 2–7 times the GHG emission reductionsprojected for the National Action Plan for ClimateChange (NAPCC) initiatives during 2000–2020, and anorder of magnitude larger than the projected increasein C uptake by Canada's agricultural soils due toimproved agricultural practices during 2000–2010.     

Chemical composition of midwater fishes as a function of depth of occurrence off the Hawaiian Islands: Food availability as a selective factor?

The variation with depth in water, lipid, protein, carbon and nitrogen contents (% wet weight) of 42 species of midwater fishes, collected in November 1976 off the west coast of Oahu in the Hawaiian Archipelago, was measured. The Hawaiian fishes show significant relationships between these components and depth of occurrence. The slopes of these relationships are not significantly different from those reported for midwater fishes from off California, USA. However, the fishes from Hawaii have significantly lower lipid levels and higher protein levels than do the species from off California. The deep-living Hawaiian species (500 m and deeper) have significantly lower lipid (% wet weight), but there is no significant difference in protein (% wet weight). The difference in lipid contents at all depths appears to be an evolved characteristic, with the greater lipid levels off California being selected for by greater spatial and temporal variation in the food supply for these fishes off the California coast than off Hawaii. The higher protein contents in the shallow-living Hawaiian fishes appear to reflect greater muscle power selected for in these fishes by the greater water clarity, and therefore greater reactive distances, in the surface layers off Hawaii. These conclusions support the general hypothesis that the lower protein contents of bathypelagic fishes are not directly selected by food limitation at depth, but rather result from the relaxation of selection for rapid-swimming abilities at greater depths due to the great reduction at greater depths in the distance over which visual predator-prey interactions can take place. The lower lipid levels in the deeper-living species are apparently made possible by the reduced metabolic rates of these species which reduces their need for energy stores.     

Effects of feeding experience in the copepod Eucalanus pileatus: a cinematographic study

High-speed microcinematography was used to examine the effects of prior experience with particular cell types on the feeding efficiency of a calanoid copepod. Female Eucalanus pileatus were fed monocultures of either the 5-m diatom Thalassiosira pseudonana or the 11-m diatom T. weissflogii during a 2-to 3-d preconditioning period. The smaller diatoms are accumulated passively by the second maxillae while the larger diatoms are detected and actively captured as individual cells. Four females from each preconditioning culture were transferred to a monoculture of the large cells and their behavior filmed at five intervals over a 24-h period to determine whether a loss of efficiency occurs when the copepods must shift capture modes. Ingestion rates for females experienced with the larger cells were approximately 2.5 times higher than those of inexperienced females. Six sequential behavioral steps in the feeding process could alter ingestion rates: (1) amount of time spent flapping the feeding appendages. (2) rate of flapping of the feeding appendages, (3) ability to detect individual cells, (4) success rate of capture attempts, (5) capture and handling time per cell and (6) rejection rate of captured cells. An increased ability to detect cells and a decreased rejection rate contributed significantly to the higher ingestion rate of experienced feeders, indicating that copepods have the ability to learn during the feeding process. Grazing rates may be seriously underestimated in experiments which do not include a preconditioning period, especially those which calculate ingestion over short time intervals. Such effects may also influence the feeding of copepods in the field when encountering changes in particle spectra through vertical migration or horizontal displacement.