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Background
This paper aims to investigate the correlations between the concentrations of nine heavy metals in moss and atmospheric deposition within ecological land classes covering Europe. Additionally, it is examined to what extent the statistical relations are affected by the land use around the moss sampling sites. Based on moss data collected in 2010/2011 throughout Europe and data on total atmospheric deposition modelled by two chemical transport models (EMEP MSC-E, LOTOS-EUROS), correlation coefficients between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were specified for spatial subsamples defined by ecological land classes of Europe (ELCE) as a spatial reference system. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and logistic regression (LR) were then used to separate moss sampling sites regarding their contribution to the strength of correlation considering the areal percentage of urban, agricultural and forestry land use around the sampling location. After verification LDA models by LR, LDA models were used to transform spatial information on the land use to maps of potential correlation levels, applicable for future network planning in the European Moss Survey.Results
Correlations between concentrations of heavy metals in moss and in modelled atmospheric deposition were found to be specific for elements and ELCE units. Land use around the sampling sites mainly influences the correlation level. Small radiuses around the sampling sites examined (5 km) are more relevant for Cd, Cu, Ni, and Zn, while the areal percentage of urban and agricultural land use within large radiuses (75–100 km) is more relevant for As, Cr, Hg, Pb, and V. Most valid LDA models pattern with error rates of <?40% were found for As, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and V. Land use-dependent predictions of spatial patterns split up Europe into investigation areas revealing potentially high (=?above-average) or low (=?below-average) correlation coefficients.Conclusions
LDA is an eligible method identifying and ranking boundary conditions of correlations between atmospheric deposition and respective concentrations of heavy metals in moss and related mapping considering the influence of the land use around moss sampling sites.Risks and futures methods have complementary strengths as tools for managing strategic decisions under uncertainty. When combined, these tools increase organisational competency to evaluate and manage long-term risks, improving the flexibility and agility of the organisation to deal with gross uncertainties. Here, we set out a framework to guide the assessment of strategic risks for long-term business planning, based on its application at Portugal’s largest water utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres. Our approach extends strategic risk assessment by incorporating scenario planning—a futures approach used to help the utility move beyond single point forecast of risks to focus on critical dimensions of uncertainty that are fundamental to the resilience of corporate objectives and their vulnerability to external pressures. We demonstrate how we combine two complementary approaches—risk and futures—and use them to assess (i) how a set of baseline strategic risks for a water utility evolves under alternative futures, (ii) the aggregate corporate-level risk exposure, and (iii) the process and responses needed to manage multiple, interdependent strategic risks. The framework offers a corporate approach to evolving strategic risks and improves a utility’s (i) knowledge of uncertainties, (ii) ability to assess the impacts of external developments over long time horizons and the consequences of actions and (iii) degree of flexibility to adapt to possible future challenges. The framework supports risk managers in their long-term strategic planning, through the appraisal and management of multiple, interdependent long-term strategic risks and can be replicated in other organisational contexts to bridge operational and corporate perspectives of enterprise risk.
相似文献Aljustrel mining area (South Portugal) is a part of the Iberian Pyrite Belt and encloses six sulfide mineral masses. This mine is classified of high environmental risk due to the large tailings’ volume and acid mine drainage (AMD)-affected waters generated by sulfides’ oxidation. The use of biological indicators (e.g., diatoms) revealed to be an important tool to address the degree of AMD contamination in waters. Multivariate analysis has been used as a relevant approach for the characterization of AMD processes. Cluster analysis was used to integrate the significant amount and diversity of variables (physicochemical and biological), discriminating the different types of waters, characterized by the high complexity occurring in this region. The distinction of two main marked phenomena was achieved: (1) the circumneutral-Na-Cl water type (sites DA, PF, BX, BF, RO, CB), expressing the geological contributions of the Cenozoic sediments of Sado river basin, with high diatom diversity (predominating brackish diatoms as Entomoneis alata); and (2) the acid–metal-sulfated water type (sites BM, JU, RJ, AA, MR, BE, PC, AF), reflecting both the AMD contamination and the dissolution of minerals (e.g., silicates) from the hosting rocks, potentiated by the extremely low pH. This last group of sites showed lower diatom diversity but with typical diatoms from acid- and metal-contaminated waters (e.g., Pinnularia aljustrelica). In addition to these two water types, this hierarchical classification method also allowed to distinguish individual cases in subclusters, for example, treated dams (DC, DD), with alkaline substances (lime/limestone), that changed the physicochemical dynamics of the contaminated waters.
相似文献An understanding of the spatial distribution and contribution of a power plant to local soil contamination is important for the planning of soil use and prioritizing remedial actions for public safety. Consequently, the aim of this study was to map the spatial distribution of potentially hazardous elements (PHEs; Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni, Cr, Fe, Mn, Cd, As, and Se) in soils around a large (796 MW) coal-fired power plant in Brazil. For the purpose, 33 soil samples were collected in the area within a radius of approximately 17.5 km from the plant and subsequently analyzed for PHEs. The frequency and direction of winds were also obtained from a meteorological station in the region. The sampling area was divided into four quadrants (northwest: N-NW; northeast: N-NE; southeast: S-SE; southwest: S-SW), and there were significant negative correlations between the distance and the concentrations of Se in the S-SE quadrant and As in the S-SW and S-SE quadrants. There were positive correlations between distance from the plant and the concentration of Mn in the N-NE quadrant and the concentration of Cd in the S-SW quadrant. The dominant direction of the winds was N-NE. The indexes used in this study showed low-to-moderate enrichment factor, but detailed analysis of the dominant quadrant of the winds showed a correlation with higher concentrations in the soils closer to the power plant for at least seven of the PHEs analyzed, especially with regard to As. Therefore, we conclude that the distribution of the metalloid As can be used as a marker of the spatial distribution of contamination from the thermoelectric plant, but the dynamics of the other elements suggests that the presence of other sources of contamination may also compromise the quality of local soils.
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